Model Discussion

Les's Winter Weather Outlook 2009-2010

2009-10-24T21:56:00.005-04:00

Les’s Winter Weather Outlook 2009-2010

It’s that time of year again! It is fall and winter is right around the corner. The following post is going to contain my thoughts as to what I expect across the region for the November – March period 2009-2010. I will be discussing many things such as our current pattern and the factors leading up to our winter time pattern. I will be showing graphics depicting factors such as El Nino, temp and precip trends, snow cover, the on going solar minimum and much, much more!

Fall 2009 – The Current Pattern and Trends

I always begin every Winter Outlook looking at our current weather pattern as that can sometimes give us clues as to what the upcoming winter will bring. We have basically been stuck in a relatively cool and stormy pattern over the Midwest since last winter. The maps below will clearly show the temp. and precip. departures over the country for the past 30 days.

Temps:

Precip:

You can clearly see that the mean trough has been positioned over the Plains. The temp. trends reflect this quite nicely. The precip. trends also tell us where the storm track has been. Drier conditions have existed over the SW CONUS as well as along the East Coast. We have been seeing a ridge over the SW, a trough over the Plains and Midwest and another ridge over the East Coast.

Soil moisture is also a very important clue. Again, look at the soil moisture map below and you can see the areas that have been very wet.

For the upcoming winter, I expect the mean trough position to continue to be right where we have seen it for Nov, and then late in the month or in early Dec., I expect the mean trough and storm track to shift east, putting the Ohio Valley in a favorable area for snowfall. As we roll on thru winter by mid to late Jan and Feb, the storm track should shift to the Eastern Apps / East Coast regions. See map below.

El Nino

El Nino has been the talk of town this year. The El Nino has been weak for the most part but the Pacific waters have warmed considerably over the past month due to a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) and enhanced MJO activity. I expect one more of these WWB’s to come in during the month of November. Weak El Nino conditions favor cold weather over the Eastern US for winter versus moderate or strong events. The map below is a composite of temp departures of all Weak El Nino winters since 1950.

However, due to the recent warming, I expect El Nino to reach moderate status before weakening by about December. Below is a loop of the sea surface temps. departures from Feb 2009 thru October 2009. As you can see, we began with a La Nina and we have transitioned into an El Nino now.

The ENSO models for October fit my thoughts very well with a moderate peak in December and then it weakens for the second half of the winter. When we peak and fall in regards to this El Nino will have an impact on how much cold and snow we get here.

Currently, I do not expect a dry and mild winter. Those are the typical impacts from a Strong El Nino and we clearly are not going to see this occur. We should see just the opposite. I have more evidence supporting a colder outlook and a stormier one as well.

QBO

A negative QBO does support more high latitude blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. The QBO has been in the negative teens for the past few months and I expect that to remain that way for the winter. This could help assist us in getting a West Coast / NW Canada Ridge going which in return allows a Trough to develop over the East.

NAO

The NAO when in a negative phase also promotes stormy conditions and colder conditions for us as well. I expect the NAO to be ever changing. The NAO has been negative for a good chunk of October and we have been very cold and stormy so far. We have seen a few milder says as of late because the NAO has risen. As the state of the NAO changes phases, big storms can often develop. I expect a very stormy winter and this is one of the reasons why. If the NAO stays around neutral or slightly negative, then the storm track should favor us /vs./ having a Lakes Cutter system or an East Coast system.

PNA

The PNA when positive supports a ridge out West and a trough over the East. Like the NAO, I expect this phase to change throughout the winter season. Due to a moderate El Nino, a strong Pacific Jet I do not believe will allow the Western Ridge to stay intact for very long. We will see cold air outbreaks at times, especially during the second half of the winter as El Nino weakens, the NAO tanks, and the PNA should go mainly positive. This should allow for a pretty cold pattern for Jan and Feb. For the first half of winter though, the Pacific Jet should stay strong and a –PNA pattern should be the end result. This does not mean that we’ll blow torch at all, but it does ensure an extremely stormy pattern will occur for the region. If the storm track is correct, then we get nailed with heavy wintry precip.

Snow Cover

The current snow cover has been expanding rapidly over Arctic Canada and the sea ice has been building pretty good as well. The graphic below shows this.

Now, how are we doing relative to avg for this time of year?

As you can see, we’re not doing too bad at all. This is about right where we should be minus Western Canada. But, warm and dry conditions have occurred there so this is why that area has been below avg in snow cover. Current computer models though do suggest that the cold and snow will continue to build even in Western Canada in the upcoming weeks. We should have a nice supply of cold air for storm systems to tap into.

PDO

We are in a cold phase of the PDO. A +PDO combined with a Weak El Nino usually produces some of the coldest winters on record for the Eastern US. The PDO has been rising towards neutral over the past 2 months and the index value was actually weakly positive for Sept. For the upcoming winter though, I do expect it to cool once again and remain near Neutral or weakly negative. If we do see a –PDO and a –NAO though, check out the results.

The nation as a whole is pretty cool.

Solar Minimum

We are in the midst of a multiyear solar minimum. We have not seen the sun this quiet in our lifetimes. This is a big factor why I do not expect the strength of the Pacific Jet and El Nino to blow torch our temps. this winter. The sun has produced no sunspots 79% of the time so far in 2009 (per spaceweather.com). The oceans are cooling and so is the globe. Record snows have been occurring in other parts of the World already this year and I expect portions of Canada and the US also to be setting records for cold and snow. Someone is going to get pounded this winter but as always, the question is who?

Where Does the Ohio Valley Stack Up?

As you can see, I have presented a lot of data that points to a cold and snowy winter for us. But, I have also presented a few things that do not. The good far outweighs the bad though. Below, I will present a monthly break down as to how I see things going for us.

Nov – I see a continuation of the current pattern for at least the first half of the month. The mean trough position remains to our NW. We’ll see a lot of Lakes Cutter storms. The snow cover should build though quite nicely to our NW in places such as the Rockies, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, and the Upper Midwest. This is good news as storm systems will be able to tap into the cold air more easily down the road. By mid to late month, I expect the mean trough to begin to shift East. I expect our first accumulating snow to occur in late Nov.

Dec – As the storm track begins to shift to the East, I expect Dec to be a good month for snow. Due to the factors I have mentioned above, the strong Pacific Jet will keep the storminess going. I expect the SE Ridge to come into play, however, it should be positioned further to the East and be much flatter to produce more inland runner systems. I expect to see a couple of storms track to our SE up the Apps. to give us a pretty snowy month relative to average. Due to the strong Pacific Jet though, we can see a couple of milder periods also as the pattern reloads.

Jan and Feb – I expect Jan to start off the same as Dec. By mid to late month though I expect conditions to turn very cold. The storm track should be along the Eastern side of the Apps. transitioning to East Coast Lows by late Jan and Feb. For us, cold air will be the bigger story, but we should see numerous Clipper systems reinforcing the cold air over our region. The tracks of these clipper systems should be favorable for the Ohio Valley, especially the Southern OH Valley to get in on the action. I expect El Nino to be weakening and the NAO moving into more of a negative state. As El Nino continues to weaken and the NAO continues to tank in Feb., the mean storm track should be East of us, and we may miss out on some of the bigger snow events, however, Clipper systems will keep our snow appetite satisfied and the cold air should keep it on the ground for a while also. Temps should avg well below avg for these 2 months and a few mornings below zero are not entirely out of the question.

Mar – I think one decent snow event is possible during the first week or so of the month before we begin to see some miler days during the second half of the month. This month is so far out in time, that I really don’t have a lot of thoughts at this point as to how winter will finish.

In conclusion, winter temps. as a whole should end up below avg for the period as a whole. Snowfall should be above avg. Due to the mean trough being out to our West as winter begins, and slowly getting more favorable for us by Dec and early Jan, I expect the highest snowfall totals to be to the NW of the Tri-State. For CVG, we should do very well also. Below, you will see my snowfall map for the Ohio Valley.

If you have any questions, just ask. Please feel free to agree or disagree as well. Thanks for reading!

Forecast Ohio Valley Video

2009-03-07T22:17:00.007-05:00

Major Snow and Ice Event - Jan 26-28, 2009

2009-01-25T19:59:00.003-05:00

Good evening folks!

A major snow and ice event will affect the OH Valley starting Mon night and continuing thru Wednesday. Heavy amounts of snow and ice are likely for the region. Click on the video below to watch it, and sit back, relax, and enjoy the show!

Twin Clippers to Affect the Region Next Week

2009-01-10T21:16:00.003-05:00

1/10/09 10pm

Tonight's video is going to be way differnet then what you're typically used to viewing. We have two clipper that will affect the region next week, followed by BITTER COLD! I hope you enjoy the music.

A Wintry Pattern Developing...

2008-12-30T21:12:00.004-05:00

12/30/08 10pm

Good evening Folks! Please check out the video below. My thoughts include: The Jan 6-7th winter storm threat, future snow threats, and also how long will the cold pattern last?

Winter Storm Likely for Mon Night thru Wed. Morning

2008-12-14T20:06:00.003-05:00

Here are my thoughts on the upcoming winter storm:

Les's Winter Weather Outlook 2008-2009

2008-10-21T20:52:00.002-04:00

Les's Winter Weather Outlook 2008-2009

You’ve asked…. You’ve waited…. And now it’s here! Sit back, relax, and I hope you enjoy reading this Outlook. As most of you know, I have been researching what our upcoming winter may hold in store for us since July! This year’s Winter Outlook for the region will consist of what I think will happen from November 2008 through March of 2009.

October – The Month of Clues

October is a very important month of the year. A lot of clues as to what could happen during the upcoming winter are found during this month. You just have to look, and know what you’re looking for. So, I’ll start off this section of the Outlook revealing the clues and what they potentially could mean for us down the road.

ENSO State

The ENSO state of last winter was a Strong La Nina. We had a very strong Pacific Jet which brought us numerous storms throughout the winter season. We had a wide range of temps. as well. That is typical of a strong La Nina. Thus, predicting what would happen last winter was actually fairly easy. This year, however, is going to be much more difficult. One of the reasons why, is that the Pacific is not going to dominate the pattern. The Atlantic will have a much more important say in how things go. We’ll get to that in the NAO section in a little while. Currently, we are seeing ENSO Neutral conditions, meaning that the sea surface temps. in the Equatorial Pacific are neither cooler nor warmer then normal. In regards to this years ENSO state, I am expecting us to be in a Weak La Nina. There are many factors that are pointing to this.

First, let’s start off with what the models are saying. Below, you will see the latest run of the climate models and their predictions for what ENSO will do. As you can see by the graphic, the models are clustered around a weak La Nina status.

Now, let’s see what the Sea Surface Temps. (SST’s) are doing in the Equatorial Pacific. Below, you will see an animation of the SST’s for the past 6 months.

We have been in ENSO Neutral conditions for a while now, but look at how the SST’s drop on the last few frames. Whether my ENSO call is right or wrong, it really doesn’t matter. The atmosphere is still acting like we are in a La Nina anyways.

PDO – In a Strong Negative State

Another factor pointing to a weak La Nina is the phase of the PDO. When the PDO is in a cold or negative state, we typically see more La Nina’s then we do El Nino’s. Thus far, 2008 ranks as #5 in the strongest negative PDO states since records on this were kept beginning in 1950 for the Jan. through Sept. period.

When looking back at snowfall data in the classic winters of the 60s and 70s, one of the factors was that we saw more La Nina’s and the PDO was in a negative state.

QBO

The QBO, which has been running strongly positive, is now trending back towards negative, although very slowly. The current QBO index value for Sept was 11.62. I expect that we should see weakly positive or even neutral by early 2009. This is more good news for those of you wanting a colder and snowier winter then avg.

NAO

As most of you know who follow the weather a lot or have read my outlooks in the past, you know that the NAO in a negative state favors colder and stormier weather for the Eastern US. However, this has a bigger impact on the East Coast then it does for us. The NAO has been primarily negative for most of this year, minus September and October. This is a GOOD THING though. There is a lot of data out there that I have read, which suggests that 80% of the time, when the NAO averages out to be positive in Oct, then it’ll be negative for the winter. For those classic winter storm tracks to ride up the Appalachian Mountains, we want the NAO to be weakly negative or neutral. In my opinion, if the NAO is too negative, then the storm will track up the East Coast, as the high around Greenland would steer the low pressure tracking in that fashion. Thus, we are cold and dry and miss out. If the NAO is too positive, then the blocking high is too far west, and we get a system that tracks well to our West and we are either warm and dry, or get rain out of it. For this winter, I expect the NAO to be positive at times and strongly negative at other times. So, when you average it all out, it should average weakly negative or pretty close to neutral. This is pretty good in terms of snowfall and cold air potential for us here in the Ohio Valley.

PNA and EPO

La Nina’s and negative PDO’s tend to favor the PNA being in a negative state. This is not good news for us, in terms of getting sustained cold and snow. However, this go around, I do not believe this to be true. I think the opposite will happen. A cold pool of air is building in the Northern Pacific (-PDO) So, that favors a trough up there. Downstream, you have to have a ridge, correct? Yes. So, that would place a ridge near the West Coast. Then, you have to have a downstream trough, correct? Yes. That would place the trough over the Central and Eastern US. Another factor in getting the arctic air down into the Eastern US is for the EPO to be negative. For a while now, it has been running positive. That is one factor in why we have had a warm Aug and Sept. However, there are signs that the EPO is going negative. So, there are more good signs if you like the cold air for the upcoming winter season.

Solar Minimum

The solar activity, or lack thereof, has been a huge weather story for 2008. I don’t have a lot of time to go into much detail here, but for further information, I suggest going to http://www.spaceweather.com to get the latest information on the sun spot activity. To sum up what I have been noticing is this… Records on the suns activity have been kept by NASA since the 1960s. So far in 2008, we have seen very low sun spot activity. The solar winds have dropped by 30%. What this means is, we have been seeing less energy being put out from the sun. The arctic air masses that are building in Alaska and Northern Canada are going to be able to build earlier then usual as well as be colder then usual. Nothing is more evident then looking at Alaska’s weather. I have seen record breaking cold occurring for Oct already! Lows around 20 below zero have been occurring up there for the past week. Fairbanks has had a very chilly October thus far as well. It has been the coldest Oct. so far in the last 15 or 20 years!

Arctic Sea Ice and Snow Cover

As I have talked about before, the faster the snow cover and arctic sea ice can form, the colder the air masses will be when they build up in Alaska and Canada. We are already seeing this take place. Here is the current arctic sea ice and snow cover picture:

How are we doing compared to what we typically see this time of year?

We are a little behind in the snow cover dept. but we will see more and more positive anomalies over the next month, so we are looking good there. Arctic Sea Ice production has increased and continues to increase at a rapid rate! This is wonderful news here!

What is the CFS Climate Model Saying?

The CFS Climate Model predicts a cold, Nov – Jan period.

Putting it All Together – What Does This Mean for the Ohio Valley?

So, now that I have some of you confused, what does all this mean for the OH Valley? I expect this winter to be in the form of two bookends so to speak. What I mean is, I expect winter to come early, meaning Nov and Dec should be colder then avg. Then, in January, I expect to see the classic “January Thaw” occur, but don’t let this fool you. I expect winter to come back for Feb. and March. I expect a delayed spring like we saw this year when March was cold.

Monthly Break Down of Temps. and Snow Fall Amounts for KCVG

Nov – Below Avg for temps. and above normal for precip.

I expect the month of Nov to produce our first measureable snowfall for the winter season. We only avg 1.3” of snow for Nov. so getting any accumulation during the month is pretty much normal to above normal depending on how much we receive. I believe 2-4” of snow for the month is not out of the question.

Dec – Well below avg temps. and normal to slightly below normal in precip.

I expect Dec. to produce very cold conditions. Brutally cold weather and frequent arctic outbreaks will be the rule for this month. I expect to see numerous clipper systems affecting the region during Dec. I went with slightly below avg to near normal for precip. due to us a lot of the time having a cold, dry air mass in place. We avg. 3.7” for Dec., but since a lot of the precip. in Dec. should be in the form of snow, I expect snowfall to be above avg. here as well with amounts of 7-12” for the month as a whole possible.

Jan – Normal Temps to slightly above and above normal precip.

This is the month when I expect to see the pattern flip from cold to mild. We should have a chance at getting a good sized snow event or ice event here when the pattern decides to flip. We will see rain storms this month or mixed precip events at times as well. We avg. 7.9” for Jan. but due to the pattern change, I expect below avg. snow for the month of Jan in the 3-6” range.

Feb – Below Avg Temps and above normal Precip

Winter will make a come back in the month of February. Another good sized snow event is possible here when the pattern flips back to cold. Depending on when the flip occurs will impact the temp. and snow amounts that we receive. I am expecting slightly above normal snowfall here though. We avg. 6” for the month and I am expecting 6-9” for Feb.

March – Below Avg Temps and above normal precip.

Like this past March, I expect March of 2009 to be similar in terms of colder and wetter then avg. I think we have another chance here at a good sized snow event during the first half of the month. We avg. 3.8” and I expect normal to slightly above normal in terms of snowfall. I am forecasting 3-5” for March.

CVG Seasonal Snowfall Avg: 23.7”
Les’s Snowfall forecast: 21-38”
Target Number: 29.5”

The reasons why I have such a wide range of snow amounts listed are because snowfall is so difficult to forecast. One or two big storms can blow these numbers out of the water! My target number is 29.5” or 30” basically for KCVG. This is well above our normal of 23.7”.

I found the snowfall information here:

http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/climate_midwest/historical/snow/ky/151855_ssum.html

Conclusion

In conclusion, I expect temps overall for the entire winter season to be below avg. and precip. as well as snowfall to be above avg. for KCVG. What may make this forecast bust on the high side is if the NAO is too negative, and we see a suppressed storm track to the South and we get mainly clipper systems and lack of deep moisture that is needed for bigger snows. Also, a lot of storms would be Nor’ Easters instead of Appalachian tracks, which is what we like to see here. (March 2008 Blizzard for example). My forecast could also bust on the low side as well. Another idea I have been toying around with in my mind has been to take the record setting snowfalls of the Upper Midwest last year (WI, IL, MI, etc.) and shift that storm track a few hundred miles South. That would put us in the sweet spot here! Thus, 40-50” of snow would be possible in this scenario. So, I took a blend of both ideas and there you have it.

High Pressure to Build In - GORGEOUS Holiday Weekend

2008-05-19T19:43:00.003-04:00

5/19/08 9:30pm

We have a rainy night in progress, but High Pressure will build in this week, and leave us with a nice Holiday Weekend! How warm will it get? Watch my Video to find out!

Another System by Wed - Upper Low for Next Weekend?

2008-05-11T20:02:00.003-04:00

5/11/08 9pm

After a stormy Mother's Day today, another system will move into the region by Wed. Then, could we see some scattered rains by next weekend? Watch my NEW Video Forecast for all of the details!

Heavy Rain for Thurs - Wet Mother's Day?

2008-05-06T19:48:00.003-04:00

05/06/08 9pm

Heavy rains are possible on Thurs. Will rain spoil your Mother's Day plans? Watch my video to find out! Also, I have a new way of presenting the forecast at the end of the show!

I'm Back! Dry and Mild Week for a Change

2008-04-14T20:57:00.002-04:00

04/14/08 9pm

I'm back making Videos again from The Burlington Weather Office! We have a very quiet week this week and we'll enjoy some mild temps. Check out the Video below to find out when our next threat of rain will be.

Heavy Rains Mon and Tues - End of Week Snow?

2008-03-01T22:14:00.003-05:00

3/1/08 11pm

Happy Meteorological Spring! We have some very heavy rains in our future for the beginning of the workweek, followed by a chance of snow by the end of the week.

Check out the video for all the details!

Rain Changing to Snow for Tues - More Possible on Fri.

2008-02-24T19:39:00.003-05:00

2/24/08 9pm

We'll have rain changing to snow for Tues. with an arctic blast on Wed. and Thurs. Another system will effect the region for Fri. as well.

Check out the video below for the details.

Snow Advisory for Tonight - Wintry Mix Thurs and Fri.

2008-02-19T20:38:00.003-05:00

02/19/08 9:30pm

We have a snow advisory in effect from 3am tonight until 9am Wed. morning. Also, a wintry mix moves in for late Thurs. into Fri. Watch my Video below, for all the details!

Snow Fall Map for Tues Night / Wed. Morning:

A Rainy Sunday Followed by a Snowy Thursday?

2008-02-17T00:49:00.004-05:00

02/17/08 2am

We have a rainy Sunday on tap throughout the Tri-State. Colder air will follow Mon and Tues. Could we see a snowy Thurs? Check out the video below for my thoughts on that.

Winter Storm Likely - Watch in Effect

2008-02-10T20:47:00.000-05:00

02/10/08

There is a Winter Storm Watch in effect from Mon. evening until Tues. evening. Find out what I am forecasting in tonight's Video Forecast!

Arctic Blast on Sun - Wintry Event Early Next Week?

2008-02-07T20:45:00.000-05:00

02/07/08 9:30pm

An arctic blast of cold air is still on tap for Sunday. Could we see wintry weather early next week? Check out the video for further details!

Severe Weather Threat on Tues

2008-02-04T19:44:00.000-05:00

2/4/08 8:30pm

We have a severe weather threat by tomorrow night follwed by cooler weather by the end of the week. There are a couple of weak clipper systems as well by weeks end.

A Rainy Tuesday Followed by a Wintry Friday?

2008-01-27T18:52:00.000-05:00

01/27/08 8:30pm

In tonight's Video, I will talk about a stormy Tuesday, followed by a Winter Storm Threat for Friday. Our winter storm threat increases as we head into mid Feb. and I will discuss that as well.

Light Snow for Tues Followed by a Weekend Warm Up

2008-01-21T19:25:00.000-05:00

01/21/08 9pm

We can expect some light snow for Tues. followed by an arctic blast of cold air for Thurs. Then, we have a weekend warm up in store! I also offer a sneak peak into the first week of Feb. as well. Check out my Video Forecast for all the details!

NOTE: The audio quality of the opening and closing music is very loud, so adjust your volume accordingly.

Slippery Morning Commute Followed by More Snow and Cold

2008-01-16T21:34:00.000-05:00

1/16/08 10pm

We have the potential to see a slippery morning commute followed by several more snow chances and BITTERLY Cold Air for the weekend.

Check out my Video Forecast for all of the details!

Several Snow Threats this Week - BITTER COLD by Sat.

2008-01-13T18:47:00.000-05:00

1/13/08 8pm

We have several chances at snow this week! Accumulating snow is certainly possible as well. By the weekend, BITTERLY Cold Air will spread across the region. Check out my Video Forecast for all the latest information.

Winter Will Make a Return

2008-01-08T21:53:00.000-05:00

1/8/08 10:30pm

After the mild weather we have seen over the past several days, we have a rainy night in store for the region. Winter will be making a come back by this weekend. I'll talk about our weekend snow chances as well as future snow chances.

Check out my Video below!

Weekend Warm Up and a Rainy Pattern

2008-01-04T23:18:00.000-05:00

01/04/08 11:30pm

I'm back after the Holidays! We are going to see a warm up this weekend as well as some rain. A cold front will pass thru the region by Wed. Could we see more cold and snow for the second half of Jan.?

Check out the Video Below!

Warmer Temps. Followed by a Weekend Storm

2007-12-18T20:55:00.001-05:00

12/18/07 9:30pm

We have some warmer temps. moving in followed by a storm for your Christmas Weekend. Colder air and perhaps some flurries on Christmas Eve? Check out my Video Forecast for this, PLUS my Travel Forecast for selected cities around the nation!

Heavy Rain Possible This Week - Weekend Snow Storm?

2007-12-10T19:44:00.002-05:00

12/10/07 9pm

Check out the latest Video Forecast below for my thoughts on our heavy rain potential for this week. Also, could there be a snow storm looming for this weekend?

More Snowfall For Tonight - Followed by a Wet Patterm

2007-12-06T21:11:00.000-05:00

12/6/07 9:30pm

Check out the video below for my thoughts on tonight's snowfall as well as a rainy future.

Clipper to Bring Accumulating Snow Wed.

2007-12-03T19:57:00.000-05:00

12/3/07 8:30pm

Check out the Video to see my thoughts on our Wed. clipper system. A snowfall map is also included. I then touch on a snow to rain event for Friday as well, followed by a warming trend for the weekend.

Winter Storm this Weekend to be a Rainmaker For Us

2007-11-28T20:35:00.000-05:00

11/28/07 9pm

Our Weekend Winter Storm will be primarily a rainmaker for the Tri-State changing to snow late Sun. night and ending Mon. morning. For my thoughts on this storm, check out the video.

A Rainy Mon. Followed by a Wintry Mix on Thurs?

2007-11-24T22:06:00.000-05:00

11/24/07 10pm

Monday will be a rainy day throughout the region, followed by a wintry mix on Thurs! Also, I will discuss our possible snow and cold air prospects for Dec.

Turkey Day Storm Update - Snow on the 27-28th?

2007-11-18T18:49:00.000-05:00

11/18/07 8:30pm

I'll have your Thanksgiving Week forecast, as well as a look into a possible cold and snowy future!

Strong Front for Tomorrow - Big Turkey Day Storm?

2007-11-13T20:16:00.000-05:00

11/13/07 9pm

We have a strong cold front for tomorrow, that will drop our temps. by almost 20 degrees! We have the potential to see a big storm for Turkey Day. Could we see our first snowfall before the end of the month?

2007-11-10T01:18:00.000-05:00

11/9/07 10pm

In tonight's forecast, I will discuss our upcoming rain chances. I will also give you an update on the drought. Could there be a cold air outbreak after Turkey Day?

A Temperature Roller Coaster Ride

2007-11-05T19:42:00.001-05:00

11/5/07 8:30pm

Tonight, I will talk about a temperature roller coaster ride over the next several weeks as well as an increased risk of storminess.

Cold Air on the Way - Noel to Effect New England

2007-11-02T23:08:00.000-04:00

11/2/07 11:30pm

Tonight, I will talk about a cold front Mon. night, which will usher in much colder air behind it. I'll give you an update on Noel as well. The drought is over for the Tri-State, and could we even have a much stronger push of cold air by the middle of the month?

High Pressure to Continue this Week - Noel in Tropics

2007-10-29T19:53:00.000-04:00

10/29/07 9:30pm

In tonight's forecast, high pressure will dominate this week. I'll give you a Halloween Forecast update too. We also have Tropical Storm Noel, and finally an update on the cold blast coming for November.

7 Day Forecast:

High Pressure Starting Sun - Arctic Blast for Nov.?

2007-10-25T17:25:00.000-04:00

10/25/07 8:30 pm

Tonight, I will talk about the cut off low soon to be exiting the region, then a return to High Pressure! Also, you will get a sneak peak at your Halloween Forecast, an update on the drought, as well as a cold blast coming for November!

If the player does not work on your PC, then click on the link below.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=756930066936351745&hl=en

Cut-Off Low to Bring Damp and Cloudy Weather

2007-10-21T20:18:00.000-04:00

10/21/07 9pm

A cut-off low will effect the region this week. Get the latest details by watching my forecast below.

If the player does not work, then click on the link below.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2432990535301728210&hl=en

My 7 Day:

Les's Winter Weather Outlook for the OH Valley - 2007-2008

2007-10-20T19:37:00.000-04:00

10/20/07 11pm

Welcome to my Winter Weather Forecast for the OH Valley for the 2007/2008 season! Sit back and relax and I hope you find this to be an enjoyable read.

FALL 2007

Fall started out where summer left off. A persistent ridge of high pressure over the Eastern US kept us high and dry. We were much above normal in temps. and much below normal in precip. The pattern remained the same for the first week of Oct. as well. Temps. are still running above normal as I write this forecast, however, we have finally begun to see an increase in precip. We just went through a stormy 2 day period this week, and the potential exists for another 2-4 day precip. event for next week.

As we end Oct. and begin Nov., I expect us to be colder then normal for temps. I think we could see our first freeze in the first week or two of the month. We may begin to see milder temps. towards the later part of the month, but overall, I expect temps. to be below avg. for the month and above avg. precip. I see the drought continuing to improve for our region as well.

LA NINA:

Now on to some things that I am taking into consideration when making this forecast. First of all, as most people know, La Nina is the cooling of the Pacific waters down by the equator off of South America. Typical La Nina effects on the OH Valley are warmer then normal temps. and above normal in precip. However, temps. are highly dependant on the strength of the event. Weak to Moderate La Nina's can give us cooler to slightly above normal in temps. while strong La Nina's can give us much above normal in temps. Currently, La Nina has been strengthening into a moderate event. Some of the long range models expect it to become a strong event, while others keep it moderate and even weaken it some by December or Jan.

Here is a current snapshot of La Nina.

Note that small area of warmer water just to the North of the cooler water just of the South American Coast. Could La Nina have reached its peak, or is this just a temporary fluctuation?

Here are the Four Nino Regions Below:

Nino Region 3.4 is the one that is officially used when a La Nina (or El Nino) is declared. Note, how it continues to drop, meaning that La Nina is getting stronger. However, look at the other regions. Regions 3 and 1+2 are both starting to warm a little bit. Again, is this temporary, or will they drop again? Only time well tell.

THE NAO

The NAO stands for the North Atlantic Oscillation. Typically, when it is in a negative phase, the Eastern US will see colder and stormier weather. In a positive phase, the Eastern US typically sees warmer and less stormier weather.

Here is the most current NAO forecast for the next 10 days:

As you can see it is forecast to be negative by months end, and this is one factor that I used in my Nov. cold start to the month forecast from above. The NAO really can not be accurately forecast more then one or two weeks in advance. But, for what its worth, I think for Dec., the NAO could be negative for the month.

I'd like to show you a model image from the German Climate Model for the month of Dec.

Now, this is technically not a negative NAO, but rather a Scandinavian Block. If this block though forms a little further West towards Greenland then Dec. could be a cold and possibly snowy month. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

For Jan. and Feb., the NAO is shown to be slightly positive in Jan. and majorly positive in Feb. Below, are the German Climate Models for Jan. and Feb. below.

Jan 2008

Feb 2008

THE PNA

The Pacific North American index can be summed up easily. If it is negative, that typically depicts a trough in the West and a ridge in the East. The opposite is true for a positive index.

Here is the 10 day forecast of the PNA below:

This is another reason why I am going with a cold start to Nov. since it is forecast to be positive.

THE QBO

The QBO is another index that measures the Easterly and Westerly trade winds blowing over the Pacific in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The QBO has been extremely negative and has continued to drop even at the end of Sept. This means that it is in a strong Easterly Phase. Not too much is known about the QBO, but to favor a cold and snowy winter in the Eastern US, we do not want to see the value this negative.

See the graph below.

I do expect the QBO to weaken during the winter and for it to start making a rise back towards positive. Unfortunately, I do not have October's index yet as it won't come out until the first week of November. But it'll be interesting to see if it starts trending the other way or not.

ARCTIC SNOW COVER:

As we all snow Arctic snow cover plays a huge role in getting arctic air masses to build up and modifying less as they head down into the Lower 48. The snow cover and sea ice is way below normal this year. However, it has begun to build. A lot of forecasters think that we won't see many arctic outbreaks due to this. However, I disagree. It is still early and things can change quickly. I have already seen snow cover beginning to build in Alaska and Canada with explosive development going on in Siberia. With a negative NAO we could see good cross polar flow to send some of that cold air over the poles and down into the Lower 48. We have 40 days or so yet before Dec 1st gets here and a lot of things can change.

Below, you will see the current snow cover map:

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE OHIO VALLEY

Now, for sensible weather... I expect this winter to be a variable one in terms of both temps. and precip. types that we can expect. This is typical for La Nina winters. At times, when the SE Ridge is strong, then we'll see rain versus snow as the storm track will be to our North and West. At other times, when the ridge is gone (like when the NAO is negative) then we'll see the track to our South, which will allow us to be on the colder side of a storm system, and we'll get snow. I think this year, the OH Valley will be on the battle line between the SE ridge and the colder air to the North and West. I expect lots of storminess this winter and large temperature swings. Overall, I expect our temps. to be above normal, and precip. to also be above normal.

Mean storm tracks throughout the winter:

SNOWFALL OUTLOOK:

In terms of snowfall, I expect the further North and West you go, is going to be your best chance at getting above normal snowfall. I think for us here in the Cincinnati Tri-state, I think near to slightly above normal snowfall can be expected with amounts of between 20-26" for the season. Normal snowfall for CVG is 22".

My Snowfall Forecast for the Wilmington Forecast Area:

In conclusion, I expect 60 one day and 20 the next. Some storms will be bring rain and others snow. Due to us being on the battle line, as depicted in my above map, I expect an increased threat for an ice storm or two as well. We'll see a lot of rain changing to snow events also. The potential is there for a blockbuster storm or two (over 8") as well due to this pattern configuration. Hang on folks, as I think it'll be a bumpy ride this winter. You may have read a lot of things by other forecasters that winter is over! I totally disagree and hope that my Outlook sheds some light on it.

Thanks for reading and let the fun begin!

Severe Weather Threat This Evening and Tonight

2007-10-18T17:39:00.000-04:00

10/18/07 6pm

We have the potential to see a major outbreak of severe weather this evening and overnight. Check out the video below for my thoughts.

If the player does not work, click on the link below.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5053586913905867608&hl=en

Rain for Tomorrow Followed by Severe WX on Thurs?

2007-10-15T19:46:00.000-04:00

10/17/07 8:45pm

In this addition, I will talk about our cold front for tomorrow, and our Severe WX Threat for Thurs. Could there be even more storminess and cold air for month's end?

If the player does not work, click on the link below.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7065245957330474757&hl=en

My 7 Day:

A Warming Trend Followed by a Tues. Cold Front

2007-10-11T19:52:00.000-04:00

10/11/07 8:30pm

In this addition, I will talk about a warming trend coming up for this weekend and early next week. I will also talk about a cold front due in for Tues., and also give you an update on our drought.

If the player does not work, click on the link below to watch the forecast.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4565668402095827771&hl=en

My 7 Day:

Cooler Air on the Way!

2007-10-08T15:24:00.000-04:00

10/08/07 8pm

In this addition, I will discuss our early morning cold front, and the cooler air that will follow behind it for the rest of the week. Also, how long will it last?

If the player does not work on your computer, then click on the link below.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-642418658630326484

My 7 Day Forecast:

Record Setting Heat and the Strengthening La Nina

2007-10-04T21:13:00.000-04:00

10/04/07 7:30pm

In this addition, I will discuss our current record setting heat, rainfall potential for Wed. of next week, the latest drought update, and the strengthening La Nina.

If the player does not work on your PC, click on the link below.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8666010237241324571&hl=en

My 7 Day:

More Heat This Week and a Sunday Cold Front

2007-10-01T16:30:00.000-04:00

10/01/07 7:15pm

In this addition, I will begin to report data from The Burlington Weather Office instead of CVG. My weather station is on-line and fully opertional now. We can expect more heat this week. Also, I will talk about a cold front for late in the weekend on into your Columbus Day.

If the player does not work, then click on the link below.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1203287705331368888&hl=en

My 7 Day Forecast:

More Rain Possible Tonight and the Tropics are Active

2007-09-26T19:19:00.000-04:00

9/26/07 8:30pm

In this addition, we'll talk about today's rains, and chances for tonight as well. I'll also give you the latest on Tropical Storm Karen and Tropical Depression 13. I'll also show you what the models are saying for the 2nd week of October.

If the player doesn't work, then click on the link.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8018390615998435357&hl=en

My Updated 7 Day Forecast:

Record Heat Followed by a Midweek Cold Front

2007-09-23T21:33:00.000-04:00

09/23/07 9:30pm

Today was the first offical day of fall, but the weather feels like summer! In this addition of my video forecast, I'll be discussing more record heat, a mid week cold front, the tropics, and a sneak peak into the month of October.

Click on the play button below to view the video.

If it does not work on your computer, then click on the link below.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7232888510625872909&hl=en

My Updated 7 Day Forecast:

More Heat then a Cold Front for Tuesday

2007-09-20T21:23:00.000-04:00

09/20/07 9:15pm

In this addition, I will discuss Tuesday's cold front, the tropics, the on-going drought, and finally the 12Z GFS from last night /vs/ the 0Z GFS from today. This is in regards to the Oct 4-5th timeframe.

If the player does not work on your PC, then click on this link.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5298203356739107653&hl=en

As always.... my updated 7 Day Forecast:

Warmer and Drier Pattern for this Week...

2007-09-16T21:25:00.001-04:00

9/16/07 9:30pm

I'm back from vacation!

In this addition of my Video Forecast, I'll discuss our warm and dry pattern for this week. I'll also give you a deep drought analysis and a tropical discussion as well.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9131148783569625062&hl=en

Also, my updated 7 Day Forecast!

Stormier Pattern to Develop

2007-09-05T19:59:00.000-04:00

09/05/07 8pm

Check out my latest video forecast! In this addition, I will be talking about our weekend cold front, as well as a stronger cold front due in by midweek next week. Also, I will discuss the potential for tropical development off the SE Coast.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3416427053137055560&hl=en

NOTE: Video Forecasts and 7 Day Forecast updates, will resume after September 16th.

More Heat for this Week - Hurricane Felix

2007-09-03T18:42:00.000-04:00

09/03/07 6:30pm

Happy Labor Day! In this addition of my video forecast, I will discuss this week's heat, as well as a weekend cold front. I will also talk about Hurricane Felix, and our on going drought as well.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1528633005226722869&hl=en

Here is my updated 7 Day!

Another Heat Record Broken - Could the Pattern be Changing Soon?

2007-08-29T20:02:00.000-04:00

08/29/07 8pm

In this addition of my video forecast, we broke another historical heat record today for the most 90 degree days in any month at CVG! Also, scattered storms occurred in the region along with some severe wx in Michigan. Could our pattern be changing by mid month??? Click on the link to watch the video.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7096350578249971927&hl=en

Also, here is my updated 7 Day Forecast.

The Heat Continues - The Drought Intensifies

2007-08-26T21:31:00.000-04:00

08/26/07 9pm

In this addition of my video forecast, I will discuss the heat for this week. Also, Columbus, OH, experienced some severe weather yesterday. Our drought is intensifying as well. Click on the link below to watch the video. Enjoy!

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8802329732260136247&hl=en

Here is my updated 7 Day forecast:

NOTE: The USA Weather Network forum now has a new home. You will need to sign up again.

http://usaweather.ipbfree.com/

More Record Heat

2007-08-22T20:46:00.000-04:00

Here is my updated Video Forecast and 7 Day. This video, in my opinion, is my best yet. I hope everyone enjoys it!

In this edition, I talk about our record heat, a weak cold front for Sunday, flooding in Northern Ohio, and the quiet tropics.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7182992579677668252

Erin's Leftovers to Impact the Region

2007-08-19T21:12:00.000-04:00

8/19/07 9pm

Due to the positive feedback that I have received from my first ever Video Forecast, I have decided to do them full time now. Therefore, I have done another tonight. This forecast discusses Hurricane Dean, and also the leftovers of Erin, since it should be impacting our region during the next 48 hours.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2032814696814165470&hl=en

Also, here is my updated 7 Day as well:

First Ever Video Forecast!!!

2007-08-15T23:28:00.000-04:00

8/15/07 11:30pm

This blog entry will be VERY short. I am trying something new, and I would like everyone's feedback on this.

I have a new addition to my forecast now. I have created a VIDEO FORECAST! Check it out, and go easy on the comments, since this is my first time.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2985261964645604210&hl=en

I would also like to give a special shout out at this time to Trevor! Without his assistance today, I would have never, and I mean never... would have been able to create this video! Thank you very much for your help!

Also, my updated 7 Day as well...

Dry Weather Continues - Could Dean Develop in the Tropics?

2007-08-12T16:47:00.000-04:00

8/12/07 5pm

After a dry weekend, the dryness continues into next week. High pressure will remain in control. Temps. and humidity will not be as high this week, as we have experienced in the past 2 weeks. The Burlington Weather Office did record another 100 degree temp. today! This makes the 4th one this year of 2007. I topped out at 101.0 as of this blog entry. That should be the high for today.

On this afternoon's weather map, a cold front extends from Michigan SW to just North of Chicago, Iowa, and Nebraska. Thunderstorms pushed thru Michigan this morning. High winds, small hail, lightning, and very heavy rain occurred. Winds this morning gusted to 50 mph. Over us, high pressure continued to rule. The heat ridge has retrograded off to the West and will remain over the Central Plains this week. Check out my Surface Map below.

The 90s will continue this week, but the humidity will be lower then in the past week. Our next front looks to affect the region on Thursday, late in the day. The models are keeping most of the energy to our north, as has been the case for most of this year. The front looked stronger also a few days ago. But, the models are trending weaker with this system, so I have only included a 30% POP for Thurs. afternoon in my 7 Day. Below, is the 12Z GFS's take on the front valid at 102 Hours.

High pressure and somewhat cooler temps. will move in behind the front. The Euro brings us much cooler air for the end of the week, but the GFS has strayed away from that idea. I did take temps. below 90 for Sat. as the GFS MOS Guidance shows mid 80s, and I think with the front being weaker on Thurs. then earlier predicted, that cool push of air behind the front, should not be as cold as what the models are predicting.

The 12Z GFS brings in another weak front for Sat., but I am keeping the forecast dry at this time, due to model uncertainty and also due to the fact that it's so far out in time. Here is the model image valid at 138 Hours.

Here is my updated 7 Day Forecast:

Long Term Outlook (Aug 20th - 28th)

The long range period begins with another Great Lakes MCS Aug 20-21st. A trailing cold front looks to deliver us another shot at rainfall. Meanwhile, the models still show a tropical system affecting Southern TX or Mexico Aug 23-25th. I'll touch on this in greater detail below. For us, more high pressure and dry weather remains for the rest of the forecast period. The Drought Monitor Map, which will come out on Thurs., should paint a pretty grim picture for the region.

Could Dean form in the Tropics?

The models have been consistently showing that a tropical wave off of Africa will develop in a few days possibly becoming a Depression and then Dean! Here is an IR Sat. image of the Atlantic Basin and you can clearly see a tropical wave off the African Coast.

As you can see, the system has great circulation with it, and it should be heading into an environment which will be more favorable for development. However, note the lack of convection with this wave. I think that it will develop into a depression in the next 2 or 3 days, and then eventually become Dean.

The models are showing the system eventually tracking thru the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico by Aug 23-24th. It may even strike Southern TX or Mexico! Here is the 12Z GFS's depiction of it valid at 252 Hours.

The GFS has been all over the place with the track of this system. 4 or 5 days ago, it had the system tracking towards the East Coast, then deflecting it back out to sea. Then it had it hitting Florida. Now, the model takes it thru the Gulf and into S. Texas or Mexico as you can see from the above image. I'll continue to monitor this tropical wave, and it if becomes Dean or not.

Isolated Storms this Evening and Tomorrow - The Heat Continues...

2007-08-08T20:24:00.000-04:00

8/8/07 8:30pm

As of this blog entry, the Burlington Weather Office is reporting a T-storm with a temp. of 84.6 degrees. Precip total: 0.04". CVG today picked up 0.11" Below, you will see a GR Level 3 Radar image as of 8:20pm, when the first drops began to fall at the Weather Office.

As predicted, we have definitely have seen some dangerous heat across the region this week. That will continue for one more day. The 12Z GFS MOS Guidance has 101 for tomorrow. I am forecasting 100! Today, CVG hit 100 officially for the first time in 8 years! The last time we hit 100 was July 31st, 1999. We also broke a record high, which was at 99, set back in 1999. Below, is the public information statement, which was released by the NWS in Wilmington, OH.

... Record high of 100 degrees set at Cincinnati...

The temperature at the Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky International
Airport reached 100 degrees at 258 PM today. This broke the record
high for the date which was 99 set in 1999. This also Marks the first
time since 1999 that the Cincinnati Airport reached 100 degrees. It
is possible that the temperature will rise even higher later this
afternoon.

At the Burlington Weather Office, I recorded 102.4 yesterday and 104.8 today! I also expect tomorrow to be day 3 in a row for Burlington with 100+ degree temps! Tomorrow will be our last day for triple digit heat. The ridge of high pressure, which has been dominating our weather, will retrograde off to our West. In doing so, a stationary front, which has been producing heavy, flooding rains in Southern MI, Northern IN, and OH, will finally sag far enough Southwards by tomorrow afternoon and evening, that isolated T-storms will be possible across the region. The 12Z GFS keeps most of the moisture to our North. Thus, I have inserted 20% POPS for tomorrow. Here is the 12Z GFS model image valid at 18 hours.

Afterwards, we will briefly drop below the 95 degree mark. In fact, on Friday, we will struggle to even hit 90 degrees! The record at CVG for the most consective days of 90 degree temps. stands at 16 days. We are currently on Day 10 counting today. If Friday turns out to be a 90 degree day, then our record could be threatened! WOW... amazing stuff! Record heat and drought-like conditions! Being that you guys are blog readers, you heard it here! Way back in the Spring, I predicted a hot and dry summer. Besides July being cooler then avg (but below normal in rainfall), my summer seasonal forecast has been right on the money!

The weekend will continue to offer dry conditions, with temps. once again approaching the mid 90s by Sunday. The ridge of high pressure will re-build over the region for early next week. This will continue the hot temps. and dry conditions across the region.

Now, the 12Z GFS does try and bring a front thru on Monday, but notice in the below image, again, all of the moisture is to our North. Thus, I am leaving Monday dry at this time.

Below, you will see my updated 7 Day Forecast.

Long Range Outlook (Aug. 16th thru Aug. 24th)

The 12Z models call for more of the same. The ridge will continue to dominate and only slightly weaken from time to time, allowing for 20-30% coverage of storms, maybe once or twice a week. The 90s will most likely continue during the next 2 weeks as well. The drought will likely worsen and on tomorrow morning's Drought Monitor Map, we should see that be the case. I expect the D3 area to probably return to Southern KY, and the D2 area should expand in our area as well. The next DM Update on Aug. 16th should show my prediction quite nicely if it does not occur with this week's update. Check the USA Weather Forum after 9am tomorrow morning, and I will post the new map for Aug. 9th in our Drought of 2007 Section. The website is: http://www.createforum.com/usaweather

Dangerous Heat Expected This Week

2007-08-05T14:52:00.000-04:00

08/05/07 2:45pm

Well folks, we did see a little bit of rainfall today, but most areas saw very little. Here at the Weather Office in Burlington, I picked up 0.18" and CVG picked up 0.23". Temps. are now rising rapidly, as we are now up to 91.6 as of this blog entry, and CVG is now up to 88 degrees as of the 3pm reading. The dew point, (DP) or measure of the amount of moisture in the air is at the highest level for 2007! The current DP is at 77, which generally can be found along the Gulf Coast! We truly have a tropical air mass in place across the Tri-state.

So, what can we expect for our upcoming work week? More of the same. I expect this dangerous heat and high humidity type of weather pattern to continue. The 12Z GFS model run showed no relief from the heat. Below, is a surface map that I made this morning.

As you can see, there is a trough over Western Canada and the Pacific NW. This is causing the Heat Ridge to move Eastward and take up residence over the SE US. The warm front is now to our North. It currently runs across Northern Indy and Northern Ohio, and should stall this evening in that region, or perhaps over Southern MI.

As I stated in my last blog entry, the storm track should remain to our North. However, even the Great Lakes will not be seeing as many MCS's as the models once showed. This heat wave will be affecting the Central/Southern Plains, and most of the Eastern US as well. We have not seen heat this extreme and humidity values this high for a long time now. The 12Z GFS MOS Guidance showed 99 or 100 by Thursday for CVG. I am not going that high due to afternoon cumulus cloud development and high humidity values. I do not think that we will crack 100 this week. Some home thermometers may do so, but not any official reporting stations, such as CVG. If you want to find a 100 degree temp. then go to Louisville down to Evansville, IN. That area should crack 100 by Wed and Thurs of this week.

Here is my updated 7 Day. I left all POPS out of the forecast. The 12Z runs have taken away all precip. chances. Now, from time to time, we may get a pop-up afternoon storm, but the coverage will be so isolated (less then 10%) that I have dropped all POPS from the forecast.

Long Term Outlook: Aug 13th - 22nd)

The 12Z GFS continues this pattern with no relief in site. The only significant chance at rain that I could find is on Thurs., Aug 15th. This particular front still looks to have most of its moisture to our North. Here is the 12Z GFS model image valid at 252 Hours.

I look for the drought to worsen as most of the Tri-state, South of the I-275 Loop in Ohio, should be in a D2 status by our next Drought Monitor Update, with D3 probably coming back to Southern KY. CVG is currently over 10" below normal in rainfall for the year. We can not turn to the tropics for help, as there is absolutely nothing going on whatsoever. Last year, the tropics were dead, and this year is turning out to actually be quieter then last year.

Hot and Dry Pattern to Continue

2007-08-02T16:24:00.000-04:00

8/2/07 5:30pm

Well, if you like the 90s for highs and no rainfall, then you will enjoy reading this blog entry. The forecast will be right up your alley! If you dislike this kind of weather, well, please continue to read the blog anyways.

Our current weather pattern is depicted by my Surface Map graphic, which is shown below.

As you can see, the jet stream is in its typical summertime position, which runs along the US/Canadian Boarder. You can also see how much of the country is dominated by high pressure. Now, what I want you to pay particular attention to, is the top part of the ridge, which I have labeled as "flat." What that means is that there is a portion of the ridge where our storm systems will continue to track along, a weakness in the ridge if you will. Storm systems will continue to track well to our North over the Great Lakes region. Basically, this leaves us underneath the ridge and stuck in this hot and dry pattern.

The 0Z GFS model from last night was showing some decent rainfall for us this Sunday, as the cold front was supposed to break down the ridge and push all the way down to the OH River. The 0Z NAM showed the opposite. It kept the cold front at bay to our North. I figured the GFS run to be a bogus run. I was right. Check out the 12Z GFS run from this afternoon for Sunday. You'll notice how it too agrees with the NAM model and keeps the front and its associated precip. to our North.

Therefore, I expect Sunday to be dry for us with the storm track up to our North. As we continue thru next week, I expect more of the same. By Wed. and Thurs. I did insert a small 20% POP into the forecast as the models are showing a slight, and I mean a slight chance of a few afternoon pop-up storms as another front tries to make it down here. As you can see by the 12Z GFS model image, which I have posted below, the main storm track continues to be over the Great Lakes, as storm systems continue to track along the top, or flat part of the ridge. Below, you will see the 12Z GFS model run for Thursday.

My updated 7 Day Forecast can be seen below.

Long Term Outlook (Aug. 10th - Aug. 18th)

The long term outlook features this same weather pattern. I see no change in site at this time. Storm systems will continue to ride off to our North only delivering us a glancing blow, and small chances at t-storms. I see no improvement for the drought whatsoever.

Drought Update:

Speaking of the drought, here is the updated Drought Monitor Map as of 7/31/07.

As you can see, we have seen significant improvement. The D3 area is gone as far as KY is concerned, and a lot of the D2 areas, have been downgraded to D1. You can see though an area of D2 status, which runs along the OH River. Further North, the drought continues to intensify and expand. My drought outlook calls for the D2 area to continue to expand over our region, with a return to D3 status in Southern KY once again. I am forecasting this to occur within the next couple of weeks.

The only thing that can save us now are the tropics. I do not see that happening at this time. The tropics remain very quiet as conditions are not favorable for these tropical waves to develop. Check out this IR Satellite image of the Atlantic Basin.

Also, we would need a stalled out front to sit right on top of us for a while to deliver us some soaking rains. The models are just not showing that occurring at this time. The only chances the models are showing are isolated afternoon storms, which will only benefit localized areas that receive them. Basically, keep your A/C in working order and try and stay cool over the next several weeks.

A Dry and Hot Week Ahead

2007-07-30T16:00:00.000-04:00

07/30/07 4pm

I hope everyone enjoyed Friday's rainfall, because we will not see anymore rain for quite sometime. CVG officially picked up 0.47" for the event and some portions of the Tri-State North of the River picked up over an inch to an inch and a half.

This week's set up features a big ridge of high pressure to our West over the Northern Plains, and a NW Flow set up over the Ohio Valley. A stationary front is off to our South. I have made a surface map below with the features on it that I have just discussed.

The ridge is forecast to slowly expand Eastward this week. As it does so, we'll see high humidity and temps. in the lower 90s, with perhaps the mid 90s by the end of the week. I am only going with the lower 90s as the models have run a little warmer this summer then what the actual temps. have done. The 12Z GFS MOS Guidance has even lowered the temps. a degree or two across the board for this week as compared to the last several days.

Looking at the 12Z model runs, they continue to show High Pressure dominating our weather this week, with a weak cold front affecting the region on Monday. I only have a 20% POP at the end of the 7 Day.

Speaking of my 7 Day, here is the updated forecast.

Long Term Outlook (Aug 7th thru 15th)

The beginning of the long term period shows yet another front, with perhaps a little more moisture to work with affecting the region. Below, you will see a 12Z GFS model image valid at 192 hours. (Tue. Aug 7th)

The 12Z GFS then has another dry period after Aug 8th and brings in another front towards the end of the long term period. Thus, the drought will continue to increase. On this Thursday's Drought Monitor Map, we'll likely see some improvement, due to last weeks rainfall. However, as we progress through August, that will likely not be the case, with warmer and drier weather expected.

The Tropics

I also finally have something to talk about in the tropics! There are two areas of disturbed weather out in the Atlantic. One area is NW of Bermuda, and it is Moving NNE away from the US. I do not expect tropical development from that. The area of concern though is East of the Windward and Leeward Islands. This tropical wave shows up well on IR Satellite Imagery. Check out the image below.

As you can see, this tropical wave has a nice counter-clockwise swirl with it, so we'll have to see what happens as it continues its Westward trek. Nothing is expected to develop though for the next 48 hours. Otherwise, beyond that, it could become Chantel. I'll continue to monitor.

Cold Front to Affect the Region Fri and Sat

2007-07-26T21:50:00.000-04:00

7/26/07 10pm

Some parts of the Tri-state have received some decent rains this week from our cut off low that I talked about in the last blog entry. CVG though was one of those areas that did not. A total of 0.04" has fallen this week at the Airport. Florence, just a few miles away received around 0.25" today! Parts of IN and OH received well over an inch. So, as is typical with cut-off lows, the rains were locally heavy in certain areas, and light in others.

Now, we move on to the Front. The models are in very good agreement with the timing. I think the best chance for seeing widespread shower and t-storm activity will be anytime after 5pm tomorrow and probably by midnight or so we should begin to taper off in intensity and areal coverage.

Here is a map that I have created which shows you my current thinking on the frontal position over the next two days.

If you look at this map, I have the upper level low, or cut off low depicted on this map by the red "L" over Canada/Upstate NY. That was the low that has been affecting us this week. Secondly, you can see the front as it progresses towards, and thru the area. Finally, the big "H" out West is where the big ridge of high pressure resides, and also where the intense heat has been for a while now.

As far as amounts go, the models are generally painting a nice rainfall event for the region. Below, I have two models images to show you. The first is of the 12Z NAM run valid at 33 hours. (Fri at 5pm)

As you can see, it generates a good inch to 1.25" for the region. The next image is of the 12Z GFS, valid at 42 hours. (Fri at 8pm)

The GFS shows everyone getting some nice rains as well, however, the best chance of 1"+ rains appear to be North of the OH River with this model run, with areas to the South, such as Northern KY, only getting around a half to perhaps 0.75" of rain.

My current thinking is that everyone in the Tri-State should pick up a good half inch of rain out of this, on average, with isolated spots (North of the River) picking up amounts of 1 to 1.5".

As far as any severe weather goes, a few cells could turn severe out ahead of the front, and I think between 2 and 4 warnings could be issued for the Tri-state tomorrow, but that would be about it. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, even though we are under a slight risk from the SPC. To further support my claim, here is an image of the forecast soundings from the RUC model valid at 12Z, which is Fri. morning at 8am.

According to the RUC model that is posted above, the following severe weather parameters are in place as we start the day tomorrow:

Precipitable Water = 1.63" (Mod. to Heavy rain possible)
Wet Bulb = 6 feet (Large Hail Threat - Low)
CAPE = 752 (I'd prefer it over 1500 for severe weather)
Lifted Index = -3.5 (I'd prefer it at -5 or -6 at least)

Remember, this is as of 8am, so naturally, these numbers will certainly increase as the day progresses tomorrow. If we can get some sunshine in here, then we stand a chance at getting some severe weather. However, low level shear is weak and that certainly will be against us. Also, another limiting factor will be cloud cover. How long will that stick around tomorrow? The trend this week has been for us to be cloudy for the first half of the day, and then sunny after 2pm or so. But, as I stated above a few isolated severe cells are possible, but nothing widespread.

After the front, we should begin to clear out by Sat. evening/overnight, and Sunday should be dry under partly cloudy skies. The remainder of the 7 Day period looks to be dry and warm with temps. approaching 90 by the middle of next week.

Below is my 7 Day forecast:

Long Term Outlook (Aug 3rd - 11th)

The models show very little going on for the long term period. But, as in the past, the models showed nothing then all of a sudden we've been dealing with a cut off low and now a cold front. So, take the long range period with a grain of salt folks. Either way, we will see a 5-7 day period of dryness after tomorrow night's front. I think the drought will continue to maintain itself or even get worse if the long range models pan out.

Below is the latest Drought Monitor Map from this morning:

I really thought that the D3 area in SE KY would be gone, due to their recent rains. However due to the cut off on the map's data (Tues at 7am), this might be why the D3 area is not gone yet. We'll see what the map looks like next week. Also, note how the D1 area has expanded into Michigan. Also, the drought is almost extending from Coast to Coast as well. The drought is not going away at all. In fact, it is increasing in coverage.

Cut Off Low to Affect the Region This Week

2007-07-23T18:59:00.000-04:00

7/23/07 7pm

Good evening everyone! I'm back at the Weather Office here in Burlington, KY, now. As promised, I do have an updated 7 Day forecast in this blog entry. I also have created a few "home made" graphics as well.

After a beautiful weekend, a cut off low pressure system will affect the region this week. A cut off low is a low pressure system that is "cut off" from the main jet stream flow. The jet stream currently is situated way off to our North at the present time. This low is currently situated over VA/WVA and will slowly track NW and affect us in the OH Valley from Tues until Sat. A cold front will come thru on Sat. and finally clear all of the moisture out of the region.

Below, I have made a graphic depicting the upper level winds over the US, and as you can plainly see, the jet stream is located way off to our North. We also have a ridge of high pressure centered over the Western US. The cut off low is over VA/WVA at this time.

The next map I'd like to show you is the track of the cut off low. This is where I think it'll move over the next several days.

For Tues. the low will be too far away to bring us much rainfall. The best chance will be to the SE of Cincinnati. Therefore, I only have 20% POPS on Tues. For Wed. and Thurs., the POPS will slowly increase.

Below, is a model image of the 12Z GFS valid at 81 hours. (Thurs. at 5pm)

Here is another 12Z GFS model run image valid at 114 hours. (Sat. morning at 2am)

As you can see by the above image, the cold front will begin to move into the region. I have Sun and Mon. dry at this point as high pressure should move into the region behind the cold front.

Below, is my updated 7 Day Forecast.

Long Range Outlook (July 31st thru Aug. 8th)

At the start of the long range period, high pressure will dominate the region. Another cold front is shown by the 12Z GFS at 300 Hours. (Sat. Aug 4th at 8pm)

Another area of high pressure will move in behind that front for the remainder of the long term period. The drought has improved significantly for the region over the last week. It may continue to improve based on how much rain the cut off low brings us this week. However, CVG is still running almost 9" below normal since March 1st, and we have a lot of ground to make up yet.

Severe WX Threat Today - Dry Thru the Rest of July?

2007-07-19T06:00:00.000-04:00

7/19/06 6am

Good morning everyone!

At the Branch Weather Office in Oregonia, OH, we picked up some nice rains overnight. I even heard some thunder as well. I can not give you an accurate rainfall amount, since I do not have any weather equipment there, but according to radar estimates, 0.25-0.50" fell over Warren Co. The heaviest rains fell North of I-70 overnight where as much as 2-3" of rain was recorded!

This morning's radar shows the rainfall all to the North of I-70 extending from Nebraska, all the way into Western PA. We will have to keep an eye on the radar today to see how that large swath of rain progresses. It will be interacting with a cold front, which will sag South towards the Tri-state today. We do stand a shot of seeing some severe wx this afternoon. I have a lot of images to show you today.

First, we'll start off with the SPC's probability map for today. We have a 15% chance at large hail and a 30% chance of damaging winds. The image below, is the wind threat map.

The next image I will show you is the 0Z Soundings for ILN (Wilmington).

The SB Cape looks great as it is over 2500 J/kg. LI is at -5, so the lift looks good. 6KM shear (at the surface) also looks somewhat impressive at 25 knots. PWATS are at 1.65" so heavy rain is likely with any storms that form. Wet bulb is at 12 feet, so large hail is also possible.

What worries me is that even though the severe wx parameters look good for today, the only fly in the ointment is the debris clouds from the T-storms to our North and West, which I mentioned earlier extend all the way West to Nebraska. Let me show you the latest satellite pic, and you'll see what I mean.

This can hurt our chances of getting some nice instability in here. However, the majority of the atmosphere was not affected by the overnight convection here in the Tri-state, so we have that going for us. If we can get some sunshine today, then watch out come this afternoon. Things could certainly get rocky around here. If the clouds hang tough, then it'll be a bust. My current thinking is that the further South you live in the Tri-state, the better chance you'll have at getting severe wx since your location would be furthest away from the cloud cover. Northern KY stands the best chance at getting severe wx in my opinion today.

As far as the timing of the front goes, the 0Z NAM has really sped up the progression of the front. Check out this 0Z model run image valid at 18 hours (Today at 2pm).

It has the front moving into the region by then and blowing it thru here by evening. The 0Z GFS, paints a much different picture and has the front affecting the region this evening, about 6 hours or so slower then the NAM, with a complex of storms affecting locations North of the OH River. Here is a model image valid at 24 Hours (Today at 8pm).

I personally agree with the GFS's solution here as it has been consistent with the majority of the models. The NAM is the odd ball model at this point in time. I think we stand the chance of seeing a pop-up storm at any time today, but they should become more widespread after 5pm today.

After this front moves thru, we should see a beautiful day tomorrow with some afternoon cumulus development. No rain is expected though. We'll see lower humidity values as well. The weekend looks WONDERFUL too, so get on out there and enjoy it. The dry weather pattern will continue for the beginning of next week as well with temps. warming back to 90 degrees by Tues or Wed.

Long Term Outlook (July 26 - Aug 3rd)

The GFS has shown nothing in terms of rainfall for the rest of July. It has been consistent in showing that all week long. Whether our rainfall for today occurs or not, the fact of the matter is, is that the drought will intensify for the entire region once again. I think highs in the lower to middle 90s is likely by the end of next week, and no rain for the rest of the month appears likely at this point. In fact, nothing thru August the 1st according to the 0Z GFS.

It finally does bring in a cold front by the end of the long term period, but honestly, you can not trust that whatsoever this far out in time. But, just for kicks, here is the model image valid at 360 Hours (Thurs. Aug 2nd at 8pm).

SIDE NOTE: The 7 Day forecast graphic should be returning with next week's blog entry.

Daily Chance of Storms Tues - Fri. - Mainly Slim Chances Though

2007-07-16T06:02:00.000-04:00

7/16/07 6am

Yesterday's system delivered more rain and some severe wx, which I was not expecting. The NAM overall was closer then the GFS with this event. The Tri-State as a whole though still needs rainfall. CVG did not pick up anything from the event, and only recorded a Trace of precip. I'd say 65 or 70% of the Tri-state did not get anything yesterday at all.

I apologize in advance, but there will be no 7 Day forecast graphic with this blog update. Instead, you'll be reading the text version of it. Unfortunately, I have not had time to update the graphic. I am at my Branch Weather Office in Oregonia, OH, all this week, so I don't have a lot of the tools and goodies that I would be using at the Burlington Weather Office. Plus, I've been busy anyways.

This week's weather will be characterized by a trough over the Eastern Great Lakes on into New England and the huge heat dome of high pressure will remain out West. The OH Valley will be in between the ridge and trough, thus causing us to be caught in a NW Flow aloft. This will feature weak disturbances diving out of Canada bringing us a daily shot of rainfall.

The SPC even has us in a slight risk for Tues. and Wed. in regards to severe weather. Here is the Day 2 Probability Map:

The best chance though for rain this week, looks to be Thurs. night into Friday as the 0Z GFS shows an MCS riding along a cold front that is moving from N to S through the region. Here is a model image valid at 102 hours. (Thurs. night at 2am)

This coming weekend looks to be dry at this point as high pressure and cooler temps. move into the region. I think the Euro model illustrates this idea well. Here is an 850MB Temps. model image valid at 168 hours. (Sunday July 22nd)

Here is the text version of my forecast for this week. The forecast is valid for July 16th thru the 22nd.

Today - Mostly sunny. Highs around 89.

Mon. Night - Mostly clear. Lows near 70.

Tues - Morning sunny in the morning followed by increasing clouds in the afternoon. A 20% chance of T-storms in the afternoon. Highs around 90.

Tues. Night - An evening T-storm otherwise becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 71.

Wed. - Partly cloudy. A 30% chance of T-storms. Highs near 88.

Wed. Night - An evening T-storm otherwise becoming partly cloudy. Lows near 70.

Thurs - Mostly cloudy. A 40% chance of T-storms. Highs in the around 85.

Thurs. Night - A scattered evening T-storm, then a 50% chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows near 67.

Fri - A 50% chance of T-storms, especially in the morning. Highs around 80.

Fri. Night - Clearing skies. Lows around 63.

Sat and Sun - Mostly clear. Highs near 82 and lows around 60.

Long Term Outlook (July 23rd - July 31st)

The long term period looks to be dominated by High Pressure, as the GFS Model tries to expand the heat ridge that is going to remain out West all week, into the Plains and maybe even parts of the Midwest. Here is the 0Z GFS model image of 850MB temps. valid at 240 hours. (Thurs. July 26th)

As you can see, look at how much of the country is under warmer temps. now. You can also see a trough entering the Pacific NW, thus forcing the heat ridge to expand further Eastward.

The only real threat at any widespread rains comes towards the end of the long term period. The GFS will probably weaken the system in time, but for now, here is another 0Z GFS model run image valid at 312 hours. (Sat. July 28th at 8pm)

As we end July and start August, another possible heat ridge could affect the region for the first week of August. The drought will worsen as I have been saying for a long time now and if both heat ridges impact our region, as some model data suggests, then watch over the next several weeks as the Drought Monitor Maps come out each Thursday. You will see the D2 (Severe Drought Category) encompass more and more of the Tri-State. Almost 60% of the state of KY is in a D2 status or higher as of last week's update. Here is the map for KY:

Rain Chances Looking Slim Once Again

2007-07-11T20:23:00.000-04:00

7/11/07 9:45pm

Well folks, our Tues./Wed. rainfall event was beneficial in some areas and a bust in others. Locations North of the OH River received anywhere from 0.25" to local amounts of 1.5". The hardest hit areas generally were along and North of I-275 in Ohio. So, who missed out on this rainfall? You guessed it! Northern KY!!! CVG recorded only 0.02" for the entire event. Here at the weather office in Burlington, we received no rain on Tues. and a few light showers during the pre-dawn hours this morning. I'd estimate that I recorded less than CVG, which is pathetic.

So, what's next? For tomorrow, I expect a beautiful day with low humidity and sunny skies. We have another cold front headed our way from the NW and it should arrive in the Tri-state late Thurs. night/early Fri. morning. I am not expecting a whole lot of rain with this system. I am only forecasting 30% POPS in the 7 Day, and even that might be a little bit too high. Only isolated showers and storms are expected with this front. What it will do though is provide us with a beautiful Fri. afternoon with cooler and less humid air. That should continue on into the weekend as well.

Below, check out the 18Z NAM model run. It is valid at 33 hours, which is Thurs. night at 11pm.

As you can see by this model run, the precip. out ahead of the cold front is just starting to enter the Tri-state. Note the precip. amounts here. The model is forecasting less then 0.25" for us.

Now look at the 12Z GFS model run for the same time period.

It shows nothing for us because the front and precip. are well off to our North. It has a much slower progression of the front but also brings in less precip. as well. If you side with the GFS solution then it shows between 0.10-0.15". I am siding with the GFS here as the NAM tends to overdevelop systems anyways. Also, due to the dry airmass we will already have in place starting tomorrow, I am only expecting a few lucky folks to get rain.

After that, as mentioned above, the weekend looks WONDERFUL! Low humidity can be expected and we'll see lots of sunshine. As we start the new workweek, we'll start to see an increase in humidity as well as temps. I have inserted a 20% POP in the 7 Day for Mon. afternoon. The reason being is that the 12Z GFS shows a system off to our South. I think that Central KY on Southward should see some decent rains Mon and Tues of next week. For us, not much, if anything at all. I have POPS for Mon. afternoon as I think enough moisture and instability could be around during the peak heating of the day on Mon, that an isolated storm could pop-up. If you live North of the OH river, then you'll probably see nothing at all. On Tues. the same thing, but I kept Tues dry on the 7 Day since the 12Z GFS shows the moisture just South of our Forecast Area. Otherwise, for the first half of next week, expect highs around 90 on Mon. rising into the lower 90s for Tues. and Wed.

Here is my updated 7 Day forecast:

Long Term Outlook: (July 19th - 27th)

Again, more of the same can be expected. Very little rainfall is being forecast by the models. In fact, look at the following images that I am posting below. As I talked about in my last blog entry, the storm track looks to remain well off to our North. Both the 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS are in agreement.

12Z Euro valid at 168 Hours (Wed. July 18th)

12Z GFS valid at 240 Hours (Sat. July 21st)

The final image that I would like to show you is another 12Z GFS model image valid at 348 Hours (Wed. July 25th 8pm)

Now, wouldn't it be nice if this cold front actually come thru at this intensity and had that much rainfall with it? Don't count on this occurring folks, as you know, but what the heck, our weather is very boring right now, so I had to post something interesting.

In regards to the Drought, I still think that it'll get worse before it gets better. Even though many areas in the Tri-state have seen some improvement, there is much more rainfall that is needed before we are totally out of it. Northern KY continues to feel the brunt of the drought. Remember, with the Tues/Wed. event, all of the action fell to the North of the OH River. The drought conditions aren't as bad there compared to here in Northern KY, where we saw virtually no rain. There is a good chance that Northern KY may not see much rain, if any, in the next couple of weeks! At the present time, CVG is still almost 7" below normal for the year in rainfall and that deficit will only get much worse with this weather pattern that we are stuck in.

Storms Likely on Wed then Dry Once Again

2007-07-08T20:04:00.000-04:00

07/08/07 8pm

The models have been in disarray as of late, but now the GFS and the NAM seem to be in good agreement with our next weather system scheduled in here by midweek. Before we get to that, we have one more hot day to go tomorrow. The GFS has 95 for the high, but it over did the heat for today and had 94 as its forecast high for today, but CVG only made it to 90 today. We will be starting out cooler in the morning as well, so I knocked a couple degrees off of tomorrow's forecast high.

The models bring in some instability for Tues. afternoon so chance POPS have been inserted into the 7 Day for Tues. afternoon. These will be hit or miss as far as the coverage is concerned. The models have sped up the cold front to Wed. now, so I went with likely POPS there.

The 12Z NAM is lower on precip. amounts then the 12Z GFS. Below, you will see the 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS runs valid at 78 hours. (Wed. at 2pm) I sided with the GFS for this forecast package.

12Z NAM

12Z GFS

After the front moves thru, there could be a lingering shower very early Thurs. morning. Any activity will be long gone before the morning commute so I left in slight chance POPS for early Thurs. morning. Fri thru Sun all appear to remain dry at this point as we will be under a NW Flow aloft with lower temps. and humidity values.

This next image is of the 12Z Euro model run valid at 168 hours. (Sun 7/15 at 8am) You can clearly see the big trough in place over the region.

Here is my updated 7 Day Forecast for your viewing pleasure.

Long Term Outlook (July 16th - 24th)

Our next decent chance of rain does not come into play until we get to the 17-18th time frame. A disturbance is forecast to drop down from the Great Lakes region. The majority of the energy with this system appears to stay to our North and NE, so the rain chances here do not look all that impressive at this time. This model shows New England getting nailed by this system, although being this far out in time, I wouldn't even trust it. But I do agree with the model trends though of this system not bringing us very much rain the way it looks right now.

Here is the 12Z GFS model image valid at 228 hours. (Tues 7/17 at 8pm)

Beyond that system, there is really not too much to talk about. The Storm Track remains running from the Northern Plains thru the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes then into New England. The jet stream is forecast to pretty much remain in a zonal flow. The final model image that I have to show you is from the 12Z GFS run. The image is valid at 240 hours. (Wed. July 18th at 8am)

In regards to our drought, I am not going to post the latest Drought Monitor map that came out last Thurs. because it is similar in nature to the one that I posted in a previous blog entry. The recent rainfall that we have received is only stopping the drought from getting worse. It is not improving it in regards to erasing it. Also, due to the hot dry air we have seen yesterday, today, and tomorrow, that will erase a lot of the ground moisture that we have accumulated recently. The drought has also expanded with D0 areas half way up the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. I am forecasting the drought to probably get worse again before it gets better. We are heading into the driest months of the year now (July, Aug, and Sept), and if the jet stream remains in a zonal flow for a long period of time, then we are in a world of trouble. CVG is still running at almost 7" below normal in the rainfall dept. since March 1st.

Rain Chances Continue for Tomorrow then a Hot Weekend

2007-07-04T20:17:00.000-04:00

7/4/07 8:45pm

I'd like to start off this blog entry by wishing everyone a Happy 4th of July!

Mother Nature had her own set of fireworks today. Check out this image of Current US Lightning Strikes. This image was taken as of 8:40pm.

At the Burlington Weather Office we had a few storms roll through during the afternoon hours. CVG had a wind gust earlier of 50mph. Like CVG, we gusted to almost 50 mph, I think around 48. I picked up .38" of rain and saw a ton of lightning as well. The rain came down very heavy for a good 30 mins. The temp. was at 88.3 degrees before the storms moved in, and dropped down to 76.1 as the storms moved out. No hail to report, just vivid lightning, very heavy rain, and gusty winds. No damage or flooding to report.

Current conditions:

Partly cloudy with a temp. of 74.7 degrees and a Dew point of 71. Winds are light around 5 mph now out of the WSW.

For tonight, we can expect more scattered areas of showers and storms. No severe wx has been reported today in the Tri-state even though our tornado watch expires at 9pm. I still do not expect any severe wx overnight either.

Below, is a GR3 radar image as of 8:42pm. Notice the very heavy rain located in Central Indy in between Columbus and Greensburg. DBZ is at 62.5, which means probably an inch per hour rainfall rates. Let's hope this holds together and hits CVG and the Weather Office.

For tomorrow, we can expect another chance of showers and storms as the front begins to finally pass through the region. I think our best chances will be morning and again late in the day. I have a 50% POP for tomorrow because I think areas from Cincinnati on South stand to have the best chance.

Here is the 12Z GFS's depiction of the rainfall for tomorrow afternoon. This model image is valid at 30 hours. (Thurs. 2pm)

By Fri, high pressure will build in and give us a dry day with sunny skies by afternoon. The dry weather continues for the weekend with the heat really turning on by Sunday under a strong SW Flow. Sun. will be in the 90s and be the hottest day out of the next 7.

By the beginning of next week, a cold front will be dropping down from the NW. The 12Z GFS brings in a few isolated storms by late in the day on Monday. Tues. night really looks to be our best chance according to the GFS, so my highest POPS are for Tues at the present time.

Here is an image of the 12Z GFS valid at 156 hours. (Tues. 8pm)

In the 7 Day, I have a lingering chance of storms in the forecast on Wed. as the front will stall just along or South of the OH River.

Here is my updated 7 Day Forecast. The forecast is valid from 7/5 - 7/11.

Long Term Outlook (7/12 - 7/20)

At the start of the long term period, the front should finally be exiting the region by Thurs. After that, the 12Z GFS does not show very much in the way of rainfall for the remainder of the Long Term period. Highs will probably be in the upper 80s and lower 90s through the period. So, let's all hope that we can add to our rainfall totals during the next 7 days. If not, the drought may re-intensify. The rainfall we are getting now, will only stop the drought from getting worse. It will not wipe it out though. We keep getting too many hot days in between weather systems. I mentioned in my last blog entry that this pattern of wetness we are in is only a temporary one. After July 10th, we could see another hot and dry period. The models are still showing the same thing this week, that I mentioned previously.

Rain Chances for the 4th of July - Severe WX for the 5th?

2007-07-01T18:22:00.000-04:00

7/1/07 6:30pm

I'm back from my vacation now, so 7 day forecast updates and blog updates will now resume. My weather highlight to report to you since I was gone, is that I dumped out 2" of rain in the rain gauge at the Burlington Weather Office. It looks like the Tri-State received some much needed rain as I expected. Also, in Michigan, we had two different severe T-storm warnings for Bay Co. One of the storms I experienced first hand. We did not make it back in quite in time before it hit. I was in the Au Gres River at the boat ramp waiting for my Brother to pull the boat out of the water. As he went to get the truck, the storm came. I experienced 1/2" hail covering the bottom of the boat along with wind gusts to 60mph! The hail hurt too when falling from the sky, but no damage was reported.

As far as our weather is concerned for this week, high pressure should rule for tomorrow and Tues. Mid 80s should be the high for tomorrow with temps. getting close to 90 on Tues.

Our next chance of rain could come on the 4th of July itself. The best chance should be overnight, and most fireworks displays should be fine. The model is showing most of the precip. to be North and NW of Downtown Cincy, so KY residents may remain dry during the evening hours. I am leaving a 30% POP in the 7 Day just in case.

Our greatest threat of rains looks to be on Thurs, July the 5th. Severe WX is even possible here, so I went with "Severe" wording in the 7 Day as well as 50% POPS at this point. I'll continue to monitor this for you. Below, you'll see the 12Z GFS Model run image valid at 90 hours, which is for Thurs. morning at 2am.

High pressure should build back in once again for the remainder of the 7 Day period with moderating temps. back to 90 by Sunday.

Below, you will find my latest 7 Day Forecast. It is valid 7/1/07 thru 7/8/07.

Long Term Outlook (July 9th thru July 17th)

High pressure should be in control for the start of the long range period. Another decent front could possibly affect the region on July 10th and 11th. Here is the 12Z GFS Model run image valid at 228 hours, which is for July 10th at 8pm.

After that front moves thru, high pressure should again build back into the region, with some of the models showing the Western US Ridge (major heat dome), possibly moving back into our region after July 10th. If this comes to pass, then we should see hot and dry weather and an end to our drought relief.

Drought Update:

Here is the latest US Drought Monitor map from 6/26/07.

As you can see by this map, the drought areas did not get any worse in the OH Valley. So, some improvement has been received in a lot of areas. This by no means is an indication that the drought is over. We are just seeing enough moisture so that it does not get any worse. It will not get better though unless we see more rain and less dry spells in between systems. This part of the pattern is what we need to have break. I do not see this occurring at this time. We'll see a front, then 3-5 days of dryness before the next one moves in. D0 areas have also expanded into Southern Michigan as well.

Pattern Change - Daily Chances at Rainfall This Week

2007-06-24T20:48:00.000-04:00

06/24/07 9pm

Well folks, the drought is not going away, however, I do think that it will not get any worse for the next couple of weeks. When we had a few MCS's affect the region starting back on Fri. of last week, they changed our whole weather pattern now. Instead of seeing a mini heat wave develop, like I was forecasting last week, this week, we will have more humidity in the air, more instability, and almost a daily threat for showers and storms. I only see 2 days over 90 degrees this week, and that will be Tues and Wed before our next cold front moves in.

Before we get to the models, I thought that the weather office might receive a T-storm this evening, but it was a bust. Here is a radar image that I saved from GR3 as of 8pm.

The cell tracked from between Union and Walton in Boone Co, and moved into Independence in Kenton Co. It then rolled into Campbell Co. as well where they desperately need the rain. The cell dropped between 0.15" and 0.45" based on radar estimates. Otherwise, most areas didn't get much but a few sprinkles or very light showers today,

For tomorrow, I think a slight chance of storms is possible in the afternoon. The 12Z GFS shows the moisture mainly North of the OH River, so I went with a low POP on
the 7 day, but the best chance of getting rainfall for Mon. will be North of the OH River. The same thing for Tues. but the chances are so low that most everyone will remain dry. Thus, my reasoning for raising the temps. into the 90s. Wed. is going to be another hot one as well, although an isolated storm could still occur. The threat is less then 10% though.

By Thurs. a cold front should be beginning to move into the OH Valley from the North. Fri. looks to be our best chance of rain though as the cold front is supposed to stall out near the OH River, or just South of it. Here is the 12Z GFS valid at 126 hours for Fri. 2pm.

The 6Z GFS from today actually had the front moving south of the region and providing us with a nice weekend. However, the 12Z GFS from this afternoon actually slows the front down until Sat. morning. So, the model trends have been to slow down the front. Thus, I have POPS in for Sat. as well. Sun. it this point looks cooler and less humid behind the front.

Here is the new 7 Day valid for June 25th thru July 1st.

Long Term Outlook (July 2nd thru 10):

At the beginning of the long term period, high pressure briefly builds in. However, by July 3rd and 4th another front looks to move in. However, at the present time, it looks weak and the moisture looks scattered with it. This, naturally will change, but that's what's going on at the present time. Then, yet another front for the July 7th and 8th time frame as well. Again, this far out, it could change.

July 4th Preview:

Here is the GFS image from the 12Z run for your viewing pleasure. This is valid at 252 hours for July 4th at 8pm.

Again, do not buy this model run as it'll change. Currently, I'd have to say a 20% chance of rain is in order for July 4th at the present time. No need to cancel any fireworks shows at all the way it looks right now.

SIDE NOTE: This will be the only 7 Day and Blog Update for this week, as I will be on another fishing trip to Saginaw, MI. The Blog and 7 Day updates will resume after July 1st.

Chance of Storms Fri and Sat - Hottest Temps. of the Season Early Next Week

2007-06-21T06:06:00.000-04:00

06/21/07 6am

I have lots to discuss in this morning's blog entry, so let's get to it! We had a nice day yesterday with much less humid conditions. For today, high pressure will remain in control keeping the dry weather going. Areas that could get a storm by this afternoon and evening will be well North of the Tri-state.

Now the fun begins for the Fri and Sat time period. The models have been performing terribly ever since the drought developed over the OH Valley. They tend to over estimate our precip. and they also have been too cool with temps. Take Tuesday's system, for example. Most areas received less then 0.25" and some received a trace to nothing at all. (Like the Burlington Weather Office, and CVG, which only picked up 0.03"). I think for Fri and Sat, it'll be a similiar situation. Some areas could get over an inch, but most I think will be under 0.25" and other areas could get nothing once again.

The reasoning for this poor performance is because of the drought. In many areas of the region (especially in Northern KY), we lack ground moisture. When we lack ground moisture that the T-storms use to feed off of, it is harder to get wide spread, soaking rains to develop. Also due to our low humidity values, which we have seen for the most part since the drought began, the atmosphere is able to heat up more rapidly. Also, with the dry air mass in place, the smog and haze tends to be less of a factor as well. The computer models only generate an avg. in regards to precip. coverage. It is impossible for a model to predict exactly where a T-storm may develop. It can only provide a general area where T-storm development is favorable. Keep all of this in mind as I continue to discuss the models and when you look at the 7 Day.

I believe that the models are busting on the position of the cold front, which is going to be dropping down from the North. This will be a key factor in the forecast and also it will dictate who gets soaked and who gets ripped off! Look at the current Sat. Pic. below:

As you can see here, the front is currently located in the Northern Plains region and the Upper Midwest. That's pretty much where it was located yesterday afternoon as well. In fact, Severe T-storms are still pounding those areas. Watches, as of this post, currently extend from the Dakotas into MN. I am leaving the 7 Day dry today because the models are forecasting the front to be in either Northern or Central Ohio by this evening. I disagree with the front being any further South then that for today.

Once Friday rolls around, the 0Z NAM model has really gone crazy with T-storm (MCS) development. Look at this image valid at 48 Hours! (Sat. morning at 2am)

This model run is totally out to lunch! I mean, for starters, the NAM model is known for over developing systems anyway, and as I stated above, the trend has been for the models to do just that since we have been in this drought. So, with that in mind, I am totally disregarding this model solution and I am throwing it out the window!

Next, let's take a look at the 0Z GFS model run valid for the same time period as the NAM.

This model run is much more realistic. It shows the T-storm complex already by us, and another one developing in Southern MN/Northern Iowa. Also, the T-storm complex weakens as it heads our way. I think that the GFS though is too quick with moving the front through. In my 7 Day I have used a blend of the NAM and GFS model solutions, favoring the GFS with precip. coverage.

The SPC has backed off on any organized MCS development and severe weather potential for the Tri-state. Yesterday morning, we were in a slight risk. Yesterday evening, the slight risk shifted further North. Now look at the SPC's Day 2 Outlook, which would be for Friday. It shows the best chance of T-storms to the SW of us.

I am not going to post the Day 3 Outlook, for Sat., as it is fairly similiar as the Day 2 Outlook.

As far as temps. are concerned, if my forecast is correct, the temps. should work out just fine. If I bust, then the temps. will be much lower for the Fri. and Sat. time period. For Sun., I have left the forecast dry, because I feel that T-storm development is unlikely at this point. If anything, we may see a slight risk of a storm early Sunday morning (before 8am), but I left the 7 Day dry for Sunday at this point. Temps. will be beginning to heat up as well.

As we begin next week, the hottest air of 2007 will be moving into the Tri-State. The models are in really good agreement with the massive Ridge of High Pressure that is currently baking the Western States, expanding Eastward into our region. I went with temps. in the mid 90s for Mon. and upper 90s for Tues. My reasoning for this is because if we see little or zero rainfall on Fri and Sat, then we have no ground moisture to hold the temps. down. In other words, the humidity will be low, and the air mass will be dry. This will allow temps. to skyrocket. In fact, when I do another blog update and 7 Day update early next week, I may insert a 100 degree high temp. for Tues! If we see a decent rain on Fri. and Sat. then low 90s on Mon and mid 90s on Tues would be the case.

For Wed. of next week, the high will begin to move off to the East, and finally, there are signs that a Bermuda High type of weather pattern could be developing. I have thus, inserted a chance of storms at the end of the 7 Day, due to the fact that a moist SW flow should be developing by then. This will increase the humidity in our atmosphere as well as allowing for afternoon pop-up storms to develop in the afternoon. This is more typical of summer in Cincinnati, then what we have been seeing over the last month and a half. I probably am a shade too low on my high temp. for Wed, especially if the return flow doesn't kick in, until Thurs. Mid 90s are probably the way to go and I'll have to look at the models again when it comes time for me to do another update early next week.

Here is the 0Z GFS model run valid at 168 hours, which is for Wed. of next week. You can clearly see the return flow that I am talking about.

Below, is my 7 Day forecast valid for June 21st thru June 27th.

Long Term Outlook (June 28th thru July 6th)

Due to the Bermuda High type of weather pattern developing, we will be in a moist SW flow pattern, assuming the GFS is correct anyways. Therefore, as of this blog entry, a daily chance of afternoon storms would be possible thru July 1st with dry conditions thru the remainder of the long term period. High pressure looks to re-build over the region during the second half of the period.

T-Storm Threat for Tues - Dry for the Rest of the Week

2007-06-18T06:01:00.000-04:00

06/18/07 6am

Well folks, I would like to start off by wishing all of the Dad's out there a Happy Father's Day! It was sure a hot one for Dad! CVG got up to 94 yesterday and I recorded a high of 96.2 degrees at the Weather Office in Burlington, KY. More of the same can be expected today as well before Tuesday's cold front moves through.

The models have been in decent agreement both yesterday and this morning on bringing the cold front through the region Tues. afternoon and evening. I think we stand a chance at some showers and storms Tues. morning before the front's arrival, but the best chance still will be with the cold frontal passage. Here is the 0Z GFS model run image valid at 45 hours, which is 5pm on Tues.

As you can see by the precip. legend, the dark blue area generates only around a quarter of an inch of precip. for the region. Some areas will see less, and some will see more wherever a heavier T-storm occurs. This is only an average as depicted by the model.

As far as any severe weather threat goes, slim to none at this point, especially if we get any morning convection. I have posted the SPC's severe threat probability map for tomorrow, which gives us only a 5% chance. The main threat will be damaging winds, but again, the threat is very low.

As we progress through the rest of the week, dry weather will build back in on Wed. High temps. will be nice on Wed. with a moderating trend back into the 90s by the weekend. There could be another front trying to push Southward into the region from the Great Lakes by Sunday, but the latest models are showing the majority of the moisture to remain to our North at this time. Thus, my 7-day only shows Tuesday's threat of rain. I will update it, of course, on my next blog entry. The forecast is valid for June 18th thru the 24th.

Next, I give you the latest US Drought Monitor map which was released on Thurs. of last week. Notice how the drought continues to expand Northward as well as the D2 (Severe Drought) area. I think areas from I-70 on South will be in a D2 status when this Thursday's update comes out.

Long Term Outlook (June 25th thru July 3rd)

In regards to our long term outlook this go around, more of the same can be expected. Another huge dome of high pressure is expected to develop in the SW states and then expand Eastward into the Plains and OH Valley as time goes by. This will keep the drought alive and well. The only possible drought relief that can be expected as long as this type of weather pattern continues is if we can get a weakness in the high pressure ridge where MCS's (Meso-scale Convective Complex) can develop and track our way. The 0Z GFS shows one of these situations developing. However, since it is 240 hours out in time, we can not bank on this feature actually occurring. But, it gives us something to look forwards too, right? The below image is for June 28th.

NEW 7 Day Forecast Graphic - Front Moved up to June 19th

2007-06-14T06:03:00.000-04:00

6/14/07 6:15am

Before I get into writing this blog entry, I'd like to start off by thanking two of my closest friends, Nick Nonno and Anthony Torres. These two fine gentlemen assisted me in developing a 7 Day Forecast graphic for the Blog using Adobe Photoshop. Nick gave me guidance on how to create the graphic, and Anthony supplied me with the forecast icons. KUDOS to you both!!!

Yesterday afternoon, there was quite a bit of shower and T-storm development, mainly to the North and East of the Cincy Metro area. Some of the storms were severe as well. They contained brief heavy rains, gusty winds to 60mph, and also small hail up to 1" in diameter. I think a similar situation will unfold this afternoon and evening as well. However, a better chance does exist for the Tri-state then yesterday, as the upper level low off to our East, is a little closer to us today.

The 0Z GFS model run really isn't painting much precip. over the region at all. The 0Z NAM, however, is showing some decent coverage for the Tri-state. Below, you'll see the 0Z NAM model image valid at 21 hours.

I think the NAM is way overdone here. The models have not done all that great of a job with the weather pattern over the last several weeks in regards to T-storm development and coverage. I'm going to side with the 0Z GFS for today's forecast. Although the entire Tri-State area today could see a T-storm, I still feel that the best coverage will be to the East of Cincinnati, as it was yesterday. As a matter of fact, areas to the South and West of Cincinnati only stand less then a 20% chance of getting anything at all. Therefore, due to that low of a chance, my 7-day is remaining dry for today.

Dry weather will continue during the Fri. through Mon. period as the upper level ridge builds back into the region. This will cause our temps. to warm into the low 90s by Sunday and Monday. If you look at my 7 Day, which I will post in just a second, I may need to bump up my high temps. a few degrees for Sun. and Mon. if the ridge gets stronger then what the models currently are indicating. But for now, it'll work.

A cold front is still scheduled to move through next week. The models are pretty much in good agreement now with it coming through on Tuesday, June 19th. They are in disagreement in regards to coverage though. Below is the 0Z GFS model run valid at 144 hours.

In my 7 Day, I'm only going with a 30% chance of precip. (POP) at this time due to model uncertainty. I'll either raise or lower that POP as future model runs dictate.

Here is my 7 Day Forecast valid for 6/14/07 - 6/20/07 :

Long Range Outlook (June 21st - June 30th)

Models are in disagreement with what happens during the last 10 days of the month. Behind Tuesday's front, cooler air will be moving into the region, as you can see by the 7 Day Forecast for Wed. The question of the day is this... Will the trough stay in place or will a ridge re-build itself over the Midwest? Below, I am going to post two more model images from the 0Z runs. The first will be the Euro. It is showing the top of the ridge being flattened just a bit, with the trough pretty much staying in place.

0Z Euro Valid at 168 Hours

The next image will be of the 0Z GFS. It shows the ridge re-building and basically a repeat of our current weather pattern with the ridge over the Midwest and the trough over New England. Check out that big low pressure system off of the New England Coast again. It certainly looks like a repeat of what's been going on this week, doesn't it?

0Z GFS Valid at 240 Hours

At the present time, I will side with the 0Z GFS and not the Euro. I think that the weather pattern will repeat as it's been doing for the last month and a half. In fact, at the Airport (CVG) we are running 5" of rain below normal since May 1st. I say "we" since that is where the official records are kept for the Cincinnati Tri-state area. I look for that trend to continue, especially if the 0Z GFS model is correct. In my next blog entry, I'll post the updated US Drought Monitor map, which will come out around 8am this morning.

A Dry Week Ahead - No Widespread Rains Until June 20th

2007-06-11T06:07:00.000-04:00

06/11/07 6am

The Medium Range models (MR), are not showing any widespread rains until June 20th. Both the 12Z model runs from yesterday and the 0Z model runs from overnight are in beautiful agreement on our current weather pattern. This will definitely be a short blog entry today, as there is nothing really to talk about.

Here is our current set up:

Let me first of all show you a model image from the 0Z Euro model run. This image is valid at 24 hours, which would be for today.

There is a trough over the Pacific NW, a ridge over most of the Central and Eastern US, followed by another trough over New England, which is depicted by that big low over the Western Atlantic Ocean. With this type of weather pattern in place, we will remain warm and dry. What's going on is, since that big low off of the East Coast is just sitting there, it is blocking any weather systems from moving Eastward across the country. When weather systems move into the Pacific NW, they can not break that huge ridge of high pressure down, because the New England trough is blocking everything.

For today, we'll start the day with some clouds, but they will be moving off to the SE shortly, leaving us with a sunny afternoon. Here is the current sat. image as of 6am.

Highs today should be in the mid 80s. The humidity should also be fairly low as well. As we progress through the rest of the week, the temps. will slowly moderate as well as the humidity. For Tues., highs again should be in the mid 80s, and then the upper 80s by Wed.

For Thurs. and Fri., the models are trying so hard to bring in a little bit of moisture. The 0Z GFS shows the New England trough trying to retrograde to the West undercutting the ridge that continues to dominate us. The chance of any rainfall though is so low at this time, that I am leaving the forecast dry. For Cincinnati, the chance of precip. for Thurs and Fri. afternoon is only at 10-15%. Even if a shower or T-storm does develop, the Eastern parts of the OH Valley would stand the best chance at 30%. Highs for Thus. and Fri. should be in the upper 80s to near 90 the further NW you go away from Cincinnati, as the Eastern parts of the OH Valley, may see more clouds then the Western areas due to what I just mentioned above. Highs in the East could be held in check in the low to mid 80s if the above model solution occurs.

By this weekend, high pressure again dominates as highs for everyone should be close to 90, and the humidity should make it feel a little bit sticky outside, but not as bad as it was this past Friday (06/08) when the Airport (CVG) had a low of 78 degrees! In fact, the low temps. this week will start out near 60 for Cincinnati, warming into the mid and upper 60s as the week progresses. So, although we will see some humidity this week, it won't be as bad as it could be for mid June.

Long Term Outlook (June 18th - 27th)

As I noted in the title of this blog entry, the next real threat of rain looks to be a cold front that will drop down from the NW and affect the region by June 20th. Below is the 0Z GFS model run valid at 192 hours.

After that, the ridge re-builds and we fall back into a dry pattern once again. Another front is possible by the end of the long range period. The drought will definitely continue to intensify based on the MR models and from what I have talked about in this blog entry. If you recall my prediction from my last blog entry where I predicted the drought could be classified as Severe (D2 status on the US Drought Monitor map) by mid to late July, well folks, if this weather pattern continues, then my prediction will be correct. Call your bookies and place your bets, as I still see no change in sight in regards to this weather pattern.

Severe WX Threat for Today Looking Less Likely - Drought Continues to Intensify

2007-06-08T06:04:00.000-04:00

06/08/07 6:15am

I have lots of graphics and information to share with you in today's blog entry. I'll start out by discussing the severe weather threat for today. Then, we'll move on and talk about our beautiful weekend! I will then end this post by talking about the drought once again.

Severe WX Threat

I've been watching the computer models over the last couple of days and our severe wx threat was looking pretty good, but as has been the case all season long, as the event draws closer, the threat diminishes greatly. I think that for today, it'll fall into that same category. I'd like to start off by showing you a current sat. image and radar loop image from the Central US.

You can clearly see where all of the action currently is. Now, here comes the radar loop, so you can see where the Storms are at (as of this post). NOTE: All of that activity over Indy and Ohio is known as ground clutter, so just ignore it. Those are false radar returns. The action is over Michigan, Illinois, and Missouri at the present time.

By looking at the radar loop, you'll notice that none of the storms look all that impressive, and they continue to weaken as they head in our direction. This is due to the time of day that it is, since the sun is just starting to come up now as I write up this blog entry. Also, that darn SE Ridge that I've been talking about since May has also been weakening storm systems as they head into the Tri-state. The SE Ridge is also the cause of our on-going drought. More on that later.

The next image that I have for you is the Soundings from Wilmington, OH. (ILN) This graphic is very complex and hard to understand. It took me a while to figure out a lot of what it meant. But basically, it is showing us the dynamics that we have in the atmosphere over the Tri-state today. I'll post the graphic first, then I'll talk about it.

I'm not going to go into a whole lot of detail as to what everything means here, but I'll point out a few things. Don't worry about the lines on the charts too much. I basically just look at the boxes below that. I'll type out below, the numbers and then give you my prediction for today based on that. I did shrink the image down somewhat, and on some monitors it may look like the image is cut off, but hopefully you can see the two boxes underneath the charts.

Surface Based CAPE: 1237
CIN: -6
Lifted Index (LI): -2
Wet Bulb (WBZ): 9 ft.

In the middle box, that is where the shear information is located at. Those numbers are in knots.

So, based on the above information... we have moderate instability going for us today. The lift in the atmosphere is not all that great. The value is at -2, and I'd rather see it above -5. A small large hail potential as the WBZ is at 9 ft. The shear is decent though, so at least we have that going for us. The main threat from any storms that we may get, will be damaging winds. I don't have the time currently, to post any GFS or NAM model images as I usually do, but both 0Z runs are in decent agreement showing the activity arriving late morning or early afternoon. In my opinion I think early afternoon is probably the best timing that I can give you at this point. I think a few storms could turn severe, but as far as a widespread event goes, I don't think it's going to happen. It'll be a warm and humid day though as CVG is still sitting at 78 degrees as of this post, so we'll have no problems getting into the middle and upper 80s today. If the cloud cover holds off longer then expected then 90 degrees is possible and the severe wx threat would increase just a bit. However, as I have said before, due to the strong SE Ridge that has been in place since May, I think that is going to kill our chances of getting any widespread action. I think that the coverage of the rainfall will be anywhere from 40-60%.

Weekend Forecast:

After the front passes thru this evening, drier and less humid air will move into the region. I expect highs near 80 on Sat. and in the lower 80s for Sun. Get outside and enjoy this great looking weekend folks, as the heat will return next week.

Next week:

As the Ridge re-builds and dominates our weather once again, we can expect dry weather and moderating temps. once again. I think temps. will reach the middle 80s Mon, upper 80s Tues, and 90 or so by Wed. and Thurs. Our next real threat of rainfall should be Wed. and Thurs. afternoon, but again, that will not be widespread at all. That activity will be the usual summertime pop-up storms, so good luck getting anything in your backyard.

The Drought Intensifies:

As for the drought, here is the latest map below:

Notice how the D0 and D1 areas have expanded Northward. Most of the Tri-state region is in a D1 status now, which means that the drought is Severe. Again, I apologize for not having time to post more model graphics, but both the 0Z GFS and 0Z Euro models runs both agree on keeping the SE Ridge in place, and the storm track running from the Pacific NW, into the Northern Rockies, then into the Upper Midwest. This spells bad news for us. I am also going to make a bold prediction here. If this pattern does not change, then by mid July or so, I think the D2 area on the Drought Map could sneak into our region of the country. We shall see how it goes, but it's not looking good for our gardens and lawns this summer.

A Brief Break from the Heat - 90s Return by Thurs.

2007-06-05T06:05:00.000-04:00

6/5/07 6:30am

I'm back from my vacation now, so blog updates will resume once again. A lot of folks picked up some much needed rainfall yesterday afternoon and evening. At the Weather Office in Burlington, KY, I officially recorded 0.43". Areas just to my NW between me and SE Indy, picked up close to 1.25"!

For today and tomorrow, a NW flow will dominate. This will provide us with much cooler temps. and lower humidity values. For today, I expect morning sunshine followed by afternoon cloud development due to the cyclonic flow around the upper level low which is centered over the Eastern Great Lakes. A slight chance of a shower or storm is possible this afternoon, but 95% of the area will remain dry. Highs today will be in the lower 70s. For Wed., I expect wall to wall sunshine! Highs will reach the lower 80s.

As we head into Thurs. though, the Ridge will rebuild once again over the Ohio Valley and SE US. We'll have a Southerly flow going once again. This will drag some hot and more humid weather into the region. We will be baking on Thurs. with highs around 90, possibly even into the lower 90s in some areas.

As we head into Fri. and beyond, a cold front will begin to approach the region. It will attempt to break down the Northern part of the Ridge. As it does so, a daily chance of afternoon showers and storms will be the result starting Fri. afternoon thru Mon. of our new work week. Highs on Fri. should again be in the 90s with temps. in the mid to upper 80s for the weekend. Below, here is the 0Z GFS run valid at 90 hours (Fri at 2pm):

Long Term Outlook (June 12th - 20th)

I think that our overall weather pattern will continue. The Trough will continue to plague either the Western US or the Plains States with the Ridge still dominating the Eastern US. Now there are signs that after June 16th, the Eastern US Ridge may begin to breakdown again. I'll continue to monitor that. For now, the 0Z GFS shows another decent looking front around the June 17th time frame. I know it's a long ways out, but to illustrate the above point of the Ridge breaking down, here is the model image:

If you recall from my last blog update, where I talked about the GFS saying a trough for the 1st week of June and the Euro was saying, "No Way!" --- I have two more maps of that nature to show you. Below, you'll see both the 0Z GFS and 0Z Euro model runs. Both are valid at 168 hours (June 11th). You can clearly see that the Ridge is dominating our weather. Both models are also showing the trough staying out West. What this means for us is more of the same. Drier and warmer then average.

0Z GFS

0Z Euro

VERY Isolated Rain Chances - GFS Says Trough for the 1st Week of June, While Euro Says Nope!

2007-05-25T06:12:00.000-04:00

05/25/07 6:10am

I know that I have not updated the blog here in a long time, but we really have not had anything to talk about here in the Ohio Valley. Also, since I'll be on vacation, I wanted to get this entry in. Blog Updates will resume on or after June 5th.

In the meantime, the drought continues to worsen across the Eastern US. The latest US Drought Monitor Map is posted below. Notice how the D1 area has moved into SE KY. Also, notice how the SE US is in desperate need of some rainfall. Folks... it's just NOT going to happen! Well, at least for the SE US anyways, unless some tropical activity gets going later on down the road.

For us here at home, a cold front continues to weaken and slow its forward progress. The Ridge that has been dominating the Eastern US will continue to do so. Therefore, I expect the front to NOT even make it this far South whatsoever until maybe Sun. night or on Memorial Day. I think today, most everyone will remain dry. The best chance to see any rain is going to be North of I-70. Highs should be in the mid to perhaps the upper 80s for today.

For the Holiday Weekend, on Sat., the front lifts back North as a warm front. I can not rule out an isolated storm, but 95% of the region will remain dry and see nothing. Highs again will be in the lower to middle 80s. On Sun., I think we do stand a better chance as the front comes South again. This time, we may actually get some better upper level support, so I am expecting probably about 30% coverage this time! Highs again, will be in the lower 80s. For Memorial Day, I expect a continued chance of storms with again, about 30% coverage, and highs again should be in the lower 80s.

At this time, I expect Tues to be dry. Another front will try and move in by midweek, so again, about a 30% chance at seeing a storm on Wed. and Thurs. with highs in the lower 80s for Wed. dropping to the upper 70s to perhaps 80 by Thurs. As you can see by reading this blog entry thus far, no widespread rains are expected. These are going to be your garden variety storms. If you get one in your backyard, consider yourself fortunate. Also, this will do NOTHING to help us out in drought dept. The rainfall from these type of storms comes quickly and doesn't last all that long, and with us having such dry ground now, the water will not soak in, but rather just run right off.

Long Term Outlook (June 1-10th) :

The models have been performing horribly as of late. They can not handle this type of weather pattern at all. The GFS is trying to develop a HUGE Trough over the Eastern US for the 1st week of June. I disagree with this model solution. The Ridge that we currently have in place will not give up the fight that easily. The GFS also has a bias of trying to change weather patterns too quickly. I've been watching this potential pattern develop over the last week or so. Some model runs, the GFS keeps the Ridge in place, and then sometimes it develops the Trough again. It has not been consistent at all lately. The Euro model, however, has been VERY
consistent. It never has shown a trough developing, and it keeps the Ridge over the Eastern US intact.

I have some more images to show you. The first one is the 0Z run of the GFS valid at 192 hours, which is June 1st at 8pm. Since the GFS is trying to develop the trough over us, check out this nice cold front that it shows plowing through the region.

Again, as I stated above, this model run is total garbage! I will show you why. Look at the next 2 model images. The first one will be the 0Z GFS run for Sunday, June 3rd. This is not the usual precip. map that I keep showing. This map shows the upper level winds at 500MB. It almost looks like a jet stream type of map. Notice the U-shaped configuration over the OH Valley. That is the Trough that it is trying to develop.

The next image is the same kind of map, but it's the Euro model (ECMWF). Notice how the ridge stays in place, and the Trough remains to our NW over Canada, the Northern Plains, and maybe into the Great Lakes. This map is valid at 144 hours, or May 30th. Looking even further ahead, the Euro still maintains the Ridge over the Eastern US into the 1st week of June.

I am definitely going with the Euro model for my long range forecast. It has been a VERY consistent model ever since we have been in this dry and mild weather pattern. Sure, there will be chances of isolated storms from time to time, such as what I talked about at the beginning of this blog. But, as far as drought busting, soil moistening, widespread rains, I just do not see that happening.

Have a GREAT Memorial Day Weekend everyone! Be safe, have fun, but most importantly, Support our TROOPS! They sacrifice a lot for our safety. If you know someone who is a Veteran, thank them as well!

Drought Continues to Worsen - Front to Approach by Friday

2007-05-21T06:23:00.001-04:00

5/21/07 6:20am

The drought continues to worsen over the Midwest, Ohio Valley and SE US. The US Drought Monitor Map was updated this past Thursday. Notice how the D0 area has expanded to encompass KY now, and areas to the S and E of Cincinnati are also impacted.

The next map that I would like to show you, are the precip. departures over the Nation for the last 3 months. Notice here how badly the SE US needs rain! Unfortunately, this weather pattern is not going anywhere anytime soon. I expect conditions to get much worse, before they get better. I'll have more on the drought later.

Is there any relief in site? No... not really. The strong SE ridge will continue to dominate our weather picture this week. I expect dry conditions and highs in the 80s today thru Thurs. Our next cold front will begin to affect the region on Friday. Unfortunately, the front will weaken as it approaches thanks to the strong SE Ridge. I think the 0Z GFS model run shows that nicely. Below is the 0Z Run valid at 108 hours, Friday morning at 8am.

The front will then stall in our area for the weekend. Earlier models were showing a wave of low pressure riding along the front for Sat., thus continuing our rain chances for the upcoming weekend. However the 0Z Run shows the front by Sunday moving back North as a warm front and kind of wavering back and forth over the Ohio Valley for next week. However, to me, the majority of the energy looks to stay to the North and West of us.

Long Range Outlook: (May 27th thru June 5th)

As stated above, the front will continue to be the focus for Showers and Storms. However, where exactly does the front stall out remains key. I still think that due to the SE Ridge, the front will largely bring precip. to our North and West because that's where the trough will be centered. The Ridge will continue to keep any widespread rainfall chances at bay. Below, is the 0Z GFS run valid at 192 hours, Monday 8pm. Look as the front tries to make some Southward progress again. See how it is weak once again.

The next image is valid at 372 Hours, Tues June 5th at 8am. Another stronger cold front will try and push thru then. Being how far out in time this model is, forecast confidence will remain low. I won't be a bit surprised as time goes by, that the GFS will weaken it as well.

Finally, one more point to bring up on the drought situation... The American Models (GFS, NAM) last week where actually trying to show a trough developing in the Eastern US for the last week of May, and folks, that is NOT going to happen. The Euro Model is correct, keeping the ridge here and a trough out to the West. Over the weekend and continuing into the today, the American Models have jumped ship and now are in agreement with the Euro. All models now are showing a BIG RIDGE developing in the next 2 weeks with little chances at getting any decent rainfall. Highs could easily reach into the 90s as well. The last image that I wanted to show everyone, is the 0Z GFS surface temps. valid on May the 31st. Look at the heat building.

Rain Ends This Morning - Chance of Showers on Thurs then Dry Until May 24th-25th

2007-05-16T06:18:00.000-04:00

5/16/07 6:15am

Well, as expected, the severe weather reports were isolated in nature. Dearborn Co. in SE Indy had some 3/4" hail reported and also some trees knocked down. A few other reports were noted in the Tri-State as well, but they were isolated in nature. Most of us saw heavy rain, and wind gusts to 40 or 50mph which is below the 58mph severe t-storm criteria. The overnight rains are still ongoing as I write this blog. However, in the next hour or two most of it will be gone. Below, is a radar image as of 6am:

After the cold front passes thru early this morning, we can expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the middle 60s today. Tonight and tomorrow, another weak piece of energy will rotate through the Tri-State from the NW. It will drop SE across the region during the day on Thurs. This upper level disturbance should have enough instability associated with it, to touch off a few showers and maybe even an isolated T-storm as well.

Below, I present to you the 6Z NAM run for tomorrow, valid at 33 hours, followed by the 0Z GFS run for tomorrow valid at 42 hours. Note, how the NAM is again overdoing the amount of precip. It did the same thing in regards to the system that's pulling out now as we speak. The NAM was going for over an inch of rain, while the GFS was right on the money with .25-50"! I will side with the GFS for tomorrow's forecast as well, and I think most everyone will not see very much rain at all. I think a tenth on an inch or less as the GFS suggests should cover it.

6Z NAM:

0Z GFS:

Highs on Thurs. will also be in the mid to upper 60s. By Friday, sunshine will return along with a slow moderating trend. Highs on Friday should be close to 70 and for the weekend, I expect dry skies and highs in the lower to middle 70s.

As we start a new workweek, clear skies continue for both Mon and Tues, and highs in the upper 70s both days, maybe cracking 80 by Tues. can be expected as another Canadian High dominates our weather picture.

Long Range Outlook (May 23rd - May 31st)

Again, there is little to talk about during the long range assessment period. The models still show nothing going on until the end of next week. During the May 24-25th time frame is when our next good threat of rain will be. So, whatever rains we received from today's system and tomorrow, will quickly dry out and be a memory. I have posted the 0Z GFS run valid at 204 hours, and even here, the system does not look as impressive as it once did.

After this system, another dry spell which should last until the end of the month. The GFS is still hinting though at another system by the 31st, which is what I mentioned to you as well in my last blog entry. That system still looks weak however.

Two Storm Systems for the Rest of May - Drought Continues to Develop

2007-05-14T06:01:00.000-04:00

5/14/07 6am

Well folks... the drought continues to develop over the Eastern US. Wildfires are burning in FL and GA and also add the Upper Midwest (MN and WI) to the list. We only have two systems to discuss at this point. The first system should be coming in Tues. night / early Wed. morning. The models have been consistent with bringing the front in late Tues. night. The best window of opportunity for us looks to be after midnight Tues. night thru the first half of the day on Wed. I have posted the 0Z GFS model run image below, valid at 54 hours (2am Wed. morning).

I think between 0.25" and 0.50" of rainfall is possible with this system. Unfortunately, this will do little, if anything, to ease the developing drought. The reason: We have no other storm systems coming in until the May 23rd-24th time frame. Our current weather pattern shows no signs of changing. I'll have more on the 2nd system a bit later.

As far as the severe wx aspects go with our next system, checking the latest RUC model run (0Z), it shows some moderate instability in the region ahead of the cold front. Surface Based CAPES should be approaching the 1500 j/kg mark with a Lifted Index of -4. These two values show that we have some decent instability and lift present in the atmosphere. However, the shear values are weak. Upper level shear looks to only be around 10 knots and lower level being less then 5 knots. This will be working against severe wx development. Precipitable Water values will be approaching 1", so a few heavier down pours are not out of the question. I think the chances are slim, but I can not rule out an isolated severe storm or two Tues. night. The SPC seems to agree and here is their Day 2 Outlook below:

As far as temps. go, we'll see the lower 80s today, and the middle 80s for tomorrow. By Wed., the front will be moving thru in the morning hours, so temps. will be held in check and will be in the upper 60s for highs.

After that storm system, I see nothing happening for the remainder of the medium range forecast period. We can expect a moderating trend during the Thurs. thru Sun. period this week with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 for Thurs. and in the lower to mid 70s for the remainder of the period. Skies will be mostly clear during this time period.

Long Range Outlook (May 20th - 29th) :

Again, as I've stated before, after our Tues. night/Wed. morning system, there is nothing going on at all until May 23rd-24th. This is the 2nd system that I mentioned at the beginning of the blog. This weather pattern just keeps repeating itself. Canadian High Pressure keeps dropping into the region behind each storm system that moves thru. The Pacific NW, continues to be under a trough, and that is causing a ridge to form over the Rockies and Plains States, plus the fact that the SE ridge continues to hold tough as well. Below, you'll find the 0Z GFS model run image valid at 228 hours (8am Wed. May 23rd) :

After that system, there is not much to talk about for the rest of the month. the 0Z GFS is hinting at possibly another system by month's end, but we'll see if that system still shows up when I do my next blog entry. Temps. during the long range period should start off in the upper 70s warming into the 80s ahead of the 23rd-24th storm system then back down into the 70s once again after it moves thru.

One final note that I'd like to discuss, is the developing drought. In my last blog entry, I talked about the developing drought briefly and I also posted the US Drought Monitor Map. Scroll down to see the US Drought Monitor Map in the previous blog entry. For this blog entry, I'd like to talk about the developing La Nina as well, which is also factoring into all of this. I'd like to post an animated image below of the Sea Surface Temps. (SST's) values off of the South American Coast. Notice the blue area expanding. We now have a weak La Nina in place.

If the La Nina strengthens further, which it is forecast to do so, then I think that this weather pattern we are in may not change. The good news is hopefully we can get some beneficial rains from any tropical systems that develop, as our rains during the summertime primarily come from T-storm development which is usually isolated to scattered in nature. I still expect above normal tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin this year.

From Subtropical Storm Andrea to a Potential Developing Drought

2007-05-10T05:55:00.000-04:00

5/10/07 6am

Good morning everyone!

We have little to discuss in our weather in terms of rainfall or severe wx, so this blog will be discussing what's going on around us, and the long term implications that could be in our future.

Subtropical Storm Andrea is the first named storm of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This system is a hybrid of sorts because it is not a warm core system as most tropical systems are, and it's not a mid-latitude cyclone, which are the kind of storms that we see here in the OH Valley. Therefore, it's called a Subtropical storm. Winds are still around 45 mph and the system is still spinning and slowly drifting to the W and SW off of the SE Coast. The models are forecasting the system to keep slowly drifting eventually more to the SW over the next few days. It's going to be a while before it's totally gone. Not much rain is falling in the fire ravaged areas of Georgia and Florida. It's actually creating more of a problem due to the strong E to NE winds on the Western side of the storm. These winds are dry winds and they are fanning the flames and making for awful conditions for fire fighters.

This system actually does affect our weather in a more indirect sort of way. We are sandwiched in between Andrea and a system out in the Plains. As has been the case for the last couple of weeks, the cold fronts weaken, if not totally die out, by the time they move into the OH Valley. This is caused by the strong ridge of high pressure that continues to dominate the Eastern US. Look at this morning's Satellite Imagery, and you'll see what I mean. There is a major lack of cloud cover over most of the Nation.

In regards to our rain chances that I talked about in my last blog entry, those chances are diminishing with every future GFS model run. In fact, we stand about a 10 to maybe 20% chance of seeing a spotty shower or T-storm for this afternoon and early Friday morning. Most areas will remain dry. Highs will continue to be above normal, in the lower to middle 80s. Normal highs for this time of year should be around 72 or 73 degrees.

Another strong high pressure ridge will drop down from the Great Lakes and dominate our weather thru early Tuesday. Highs this weekend will be in the middle 70s under sunny skies! We'll see low humidity values as well. Even though we need the rain badly around here, you couldn't have asked for better weather for Mother's Day! On Monday of next week, highs will moderate back into the 80s once again.

By Tues. of next week, this is the best chance of rain that I can find for the next 10 days or so. Remember my last blog entry, where the 3rd week of May was looking stormy? Not anymore folks. As stated above, the GFS runs show strong systems 7-10 days in advance then after a few days, the models weaken the cold fronts considerably. That model trend will continue as long as the ridge continues to dominate our weather, which I believe it will. It looks like our best chance will come Tues. afternoon and into the overnight period. Even then, I'd only say 50% coverage at this point. The GFS may even continue to weaken this system further. I'll continue to monitor. But for now, here's a look at the 0Z GFS model run valid at 150 hours (Tues night/Wed. morning at 2am) :

Long Term Outlook (May 15th - 25th)

After that system moves out, there is NOTHING, and I mean NOTHING to really talk about. I continue to see above normal temps. and a ridge of high pressure continuing to dominate our weather pattern. The next system I could find is scheduled for the May 23-24th time frame. We all know that the GFS will probably even weaken this system too in time. But, here is the 0Z GFS model run image valid at 348 hours (Thurs. May 24th at 8am) :

Is there a potential drought developing?

The simple answer to that is, YES! I think that the chances for a drought are increasing rapidly with each passing day. We have had only .14" at CVG for the month of May and .10" at Dayton. The month of May is our wettest month of the year at over 5" for CVG. We will come no where near that! We are running behind in the rainfall dept. as one can clearly see. If we do not receive any widespread rains in the next couple of weeks, then be prepared for a drought, and a long, hot summer. You heard it here folks! That is my prediction at this time. I see no shift in this weather pattern at all. The ridge will continue to dominate the Eastern US. In fact, the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, SE US, and New England are all running below normal in the rainfall dept. Numerous fires continue to burn in Florida and Georgia.

Below, I have posted the Drought Monitoring Map from the Climate Prediction Center. (CPC) This image was last updated on May 1st. As long as we remain in this weather pattern, I'll continue to post the map on the blog here from time to time.

Notice that currently, we're fine. We have not been classified as a drought area yet. But in another couple of weeks, if things do not change, then we probably will be. Notice that Southern KY is in the D0 status now. I again, do not see us getting any huge amounts of rainfall in the next few weeks.

Weather Pattern May Repeat Itself this Week

2007-05-07T05:53:00.000-04:00

05/07/07 5:55pm

Good morning everyone!

I apologize in advance for not posting a blog entry sooner. I celebrated my Birthday over the weekend, and was also out of town fishing a walleye tournament on Lake Erie as well. Unfortunately, due to strong Easterly Winds, the tournament was cancelled. But, it's been rescheduled for June the 16th.

As far as the weather goes, a ridge should dominate our weather here in the OH Valley for the first half of the week, while the Plains States and Texas in particular, continue to get pounded by Severe WX. We have a blocky type of weather pattern in place at this time with continued troughs of low pressure coming into the Western US, which continue to spark off Severe WX out to our West. Meanwhile, we have a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern US, and another deep ocean low off the East Coast.

To better illustrate this, I have posted a surface map below:

For temps. this week, I expect the 70s today, close to 80 tomorrow, and in the lower 80s for Wed. We can expect clear to partly cloudy skies all 3 days. By Thurs., a weak front tries to push into the region suppressing the ridge to the South. The fronts impact looks to be weak at this time. The 0Z GFS at 90 hours (2pm Thurs.) shows this quite well.

The 0Z NAM shows the area not receiving anything at all! I will side with the GFS at this time, and wait for future model runs to see if this weakening trend continues. The front will be slow to move through and should be off to our South on Friday. I've also been toying with the idea that this front could stall and bring us rain through the weekend as well, but the 0Z model runs do not show this idea like the 12Z runs did yesterday. If the 0Z run verifies, we'll have a nice weekend on tap. My confidence in the forecast is low after Day 5, so rain chances may need to be inserted past Friday if the front does indeed stall. I'll continue to monitor. For temps. upper 70s to the lower 80s look good at this point due to low forecast confidence.

Long Term Outlook (May 14th - 23rd)

The models continue the domination of the ridge as a new ridge forms during the middle of the month and more troughiness affects areas to our West. A stormier pattern looks possible though during the 3rd week of the month. A stalled out front to our South looks to return North as a warm front and bring rain and storms to our area May 18-20th. Here is another 0Z GFS model run image valid at 288 hours (Fri. May 18th, 8pm) :

Then, the flow backs to the SW again in response to more surface low development out in the plains towards the end of the long term period. The front will finally try and push through, but due to the SE ridge, it'll have a hard time doing so. I have one final 0Z GFS image to show you. This one is valid at 372 hours (Tues. May 22nd, 8am) :

Cold Front to Stall - Rain for Wed. Night thru Thurs. Night

2007-05-02T05:53:00.000-04:00

5/2/07 5:55am

Good morning everyone!

It looks like my downplaying of the severe wx threat for Cincinnati worked out perfectly! The front did indeed slow down as forecast by the models yesterday morning. All of the action was up in Northern Indiana and NW Ohio. There was one tornado report, and a ton of large hail reports as well. Below, is a GR Level 3 Radar Image taken around 6:20pm last night. Look at all of the T-storms and all of the warnings that were in effect for the area! The red boxes are the counties under Severe T-storm warnings, and the purple boxes are tornado warnings.

That same cold front, still has not made it South to the OH River as of yet. The models were off by 30 or 40 miles! I checked surface observations this morning, and at Dayton, they had North winds, so we know the front is past that area, and at CVG, the winds were still out of the West. So, the front lies in between here and Dayton. Check out the Satellite imagery below, and you should be able to pick out where the front lies in accordance with the band of clouds associated with it. No rainfall is being generated though at this time.

The front is still to forecast to drop a tad further South and stall along the OH River by this evening. As a result, showers and storms are likely overnight tonight and again on Thursday. The next 2 images are of the latest GFS Model run. The first image is valid at 42 hours (Early Thurs. morning at 2am) and the other for 48 hours (Thurs. morning at 8am).

Tonight at 2am

Thurs. Morning at 8am

My forecast confidence in this model solution is not of the highest confidence. The SE Ridge is still VERY strong. The models have been way off in regards to the position of this front. They keep wanting to bring it South and it's just not happening. I would not be a bit surprised if the moderate to heavy rain area shifts a little bit further North then currently forecast. It's going to depend on how strong the big High pushing down from the Great Lakes is. There will be a sharp Northward cut-off of the precip. shield during this time period as whomever lies to the North of the front, will be experiencing a dry NE flow. So, the best chance for rainfall over the next 48-60 hours, will be from Cincinnati on South. For those in Brookville, IN to Dayton, OH to Columbus, OH... you folks could be dry and see very little, if any precip. during this time. High temps. for today and Thurs. depend on where the front sets up shop. South of the boundary I except highs in the 70 to 75 degree range and North of the front, temps. should stay in the 60s. Thurs., if we see the rain and clouds as the models suggest, temps. should remain in the 60s for everyone.

After this system moves out, we'll see perhaps some morning rains. followed by decreasing clouds on Fri. with some sunshine by afternoon. Highs again should be in the upper 60s. By the weekend, the front should have slipped far enough South into Central and Southern KY, that the Entire Tri-State should be under clear skies with highs in the mid to upper 70s! Right now, this weekend looks like a beauty!

As we begin a new work week, that large area of High pressure that I mentioned above, will still be in control of our weather. Highs on Mon. and Tues. of next week should be around 80 degrees or so.

Long Range Outlook: (May 9th - May 17th)

Overall, a ridge should still be dominating the region. The long range models show a few weak systems from time to time, but nothing major until the end of the outlook period. We should continue to see above normal temps. during this time. Currently, a couple of weak looking fronts are forecast to affect the region around May 11th, then another around May 14th-15th. Finally, as we hit the end of the long range period, a more decent looking front is forecast to affect the region. Below is another GFS Model image valid at 384 hours (May 17th at 8am)

A Warm Last Day of April - Severe WX Threat for Tuesday

2007-04-30T05:48:00.000-04:00

4/30/07 5:45am

Good morning everyone!

Well, I almost made it through April without an 80 degree temp. at CVG when I made the prediction back on April the 5th. I guess it's proper to have it bust on the last day of the month! All in all though, it was still a great prediction, and to me, it stands out as one of my best long range predictions that I have made in a long, long time. The GFS MOS guidance, shows a high of 83 today, which I agree with. I have posted a satellite image below. As one can see, there is some high cloudiness roaming through the Northern parts of the Tri-state from T-storm blow off. Those clouds will be gone in the next hour or two, leaving most of us with wall-to-wall sunshine for the majority of the day.

For Tues. there will be a slight risk of severe wx. The surface based CAPES will only be at 1000 j/KG for Cincinnati, with a lifted index of -4 in the afternoon. Both the 0Z NAM and GFS have the front coming through here Tues. evening after 8 or 9pm. The NAM and GFS both have come down on precip. chances for Cincinnati. Thus, I am downplaying the severe threat for us. Right now, I am going for an isolated severe storm with the best chance being along the I-70 Corridor running from Dayton to Columbus.

The SPC Day 2 Outlook graphic is below, which I think illustrates by prediction beautifully.

Here's the 0Z GFS model run valid at 48 hours: (Tues at 8pm)

After this system moves through, Wed - Fri. looks to be dry, although cooler since we'll be under a NW flow aloft. Temps. will drop from the 80s on Tues. down into the upper 60s for Wed. then around 70 to the lower 70s for Thurs and Fri.

By the time we hit next weekend, at this time, it looks to be unsettled in the OH Valley. I've been watching the model runs daily as I know there are a lot of activities planned for that weekend. Here in Cincy, the Flying Pig Marathon will be happening, and right now, my forecast calls for a 30% chance of a T-storm with highs in the 70s. Now, a ridge of high pressure will be building down from the Great Lakes by weeks end, and if it pushes far enough South, and if the front can push itself far enough South, then for the Marathon, conditions could be dry. For the Walleye Tournament on Lake Erie, right now, I am calling for dry conditions all weekend with NW Winds. Highs up there should be in the upper 60s on Sat to the lower 70s on Sun under sunny skies!

Long Range Outlook: (May 6th - May 15th)

Conditions during the long range period look to be fairly mild across the region. A cold front is forecast to come through the region on May 9th, but it looks weak at this time. A stronger cold front looks to affect the region around the May 12th time frame.

Here's the 0Z GFS Model Run image below valid at 312 hours: (Sat., May 12th at 8pm)

Then, another front could affect the region by the end of the long term period.

Special Edition: Severe Weather Threat for Thursday

2007-04-25T19:24:00.000-04:00

04/25/07 7:20pm

Good evening folks!

I am updating the blog tonight due to our severe wx threat for tomorrow. But, before I get to that, I'd like to first off, start by telling everyone that I am now on high speed Internet access here at the Burlington Weather Office!!! I'd like to thank my family for making that possible! In addition to that, another upgrade also took place. I am now running GR Level 3 Radar too! This radar allows me to look at a T-storm's attributes, such as hail size, rotation, clouds tops, etc. I'd like to thank Anthony, Jerry, Nick, and Trevor for that!

Below, I have posted a GR Level 3 image of a weak T-shower that moved into Boone Co., KY last night around 10pm.

Now... on to tomorrow's severe wx threat.

First off, here's the latest severe weather probability map from the SPC:

As one can see, the best chance looks to be along and to the East of the I-71/I-75 corridor. I agree with this map for many reasons:

1) If the 12Z GFS Model solution verifies, it shows the surface low pressure area tracking off to our NW. It also, shows some morning convection moving thru which should help to destabilize the atmosphere. I have posted the model image below for Thurs. morning at 8am.

2) Surface Based CAPES are only going to be between 1000-1500 j/kg. That is an ok amount of instability, but I'd rather see values over 2000.

3) The Lifted Index, currently anyways, is only at -2 for Cincinnati. That tells us that we do have a little bit of lift going on in the atmosphere, but I'd rather see values even lower, such as -4, -5, -6, etc.

4) The shear values do actually look good. That is forecast to be between 30-40 knots. That's not bad at all for wind shear in my opinion, so we do have that going for us.

In short, it'll depend on if the morning rains move thru here, and how long it lasts. Also, will it remain cloudy, or will the skies clear out fast enough for the sun to destabilize the atmosphere again? Based on the above images, and above model data that I have shown you, I agree with the SPC and right now, we all stand a shot at seeing severe wx tomorrow afternoon and evening. BUT... the greatest threat area to me will be SE and E OH, WVA, and NW PA. This includes cities such as Columbus, Huntington, and Pittsburgh.

After this storm moves out, we may see a leftover shower Fri. morning, but otherwise the weekend thru Tues. of next week is looking beautiful! I see dry skies and highs in the 70s, warming POSSIBLY into the lower 80s next week!

I'll talk about that in my next blog entry. This one was mainly designed to talk about the severe wx threat for tomorrow.

Heavy Rain Possible Wed and Thurs - Weekend Looking Nice

2007-04-24T07:13:00.000-04:00

4/24/07 7:15am

Today looks to be another nice day as we should see some sun this morning followed by increasing clouds this afternoon. Highs should be between 72-75 degrees depending on the amount of sun we receive.

Both the 6Z NAM and 0Z GFS are in agreement on rainfall pushing into the region after midnight tonight. A cold front, which is currently stalled out just to our South over Central KY, is forecast to move back North as a warm front in response to surface low development in the Plains today. This should cause another severe wx outbreak there today. For us, rainfall should move in after midnight tonight in response to the warm front. A few T-storms are also possible, although severe wx to me should be non-existent. The models are also tracking the low to the North of our region over Northern IN and Northern OH. Heavy rain I think is our biggest threat with this system. I think an inch of rain is possible area wide with localized amounts of 2" possible.

Here is a model image from the 0Z GFS run valid at 42 hours: (Wed. 2pm)

As one can see, the warm front should be North of Cincinnati by then with the heavier rain affecting areas along and North of I-70. On Thurs., we should see another round of rainfall with the cold frontal passage coming in Thurs. night/early Fri. morning. Highs Wed - Thurs will be in the 60s due to the expected cloud cover and rainfall.

The SPC has us in a slight risk for severe wx on Thurs. We'll have to see how the dynamics look with this system when the front gets closer. I do not think we'll see a widespread severe wx event, as the front should lose some of its punch due to it slamming up against the strong SE Ridge.

This weekend, at this point, looks to be dry, with highs on Sat. close to 70 and in the 70s on Sun.
As we start off a new work week, another cold front could affect the area by Tues. afternoon. Highs on Mon and Tues should remain in the mid 70s.

Long Term Outlook: (May 2nd - 12th)

Overall, we can expect above normal temps. to continue with a somewhat unsettled weather pattern continuing. During the long term period, one storm in particular looks pretty decent this far out on the 0Z GFS run. You'll see an image below, which is valid at 312 hours. (May 6th 8pm)

A Nice Weekend in Progress - Turning Stormy by Midweek

2007-04-21T12:16:00.000-04:00

04/21/07 12:20pm

Good afternoon everyone! What a beautiful weekend that we have in progress! We have clear skies all across the OH Valley today and tomorrow as well. The temp. at CVG is already up to 69 degrees as of this post.

Check out the Satellite picture below. You'll see exactly where the ridge of high pressure is located. The SE US is under a nasty drought right now, with fire weather watches and warnings, plus dense smoke advisories are in effect in some places.

My forecast high for today is 74 and 78 for tomorrow! Speaking of tomorrow, we'll be under mostly sunny skies then as well.

A weak cold front begins to descend upon the area on Mon. afternoon/evening. Until then, we can expect another decent day on Monday with highs in the middle 70s expected! Models have been in good agreement over the last several runs with both the NAM and GFS weakening the front and also stalling it somewhere in the OH Valley. I am inserting a slight chance of a shower or a T-storm with the front's arrival, but moisture does not look to be all that impressive with this front.

On Tues., the front will begin to lift Northward as a warm front. Tues. could be a dry day, but I'll leave a chance of showers and T-storms in the forecast at this point, due to model uncertainty in regards to the position of the front.

By Wed., a wave of low pressure will develop on the front and head our way. According to the 6Z GFS valid at 108 hours for Wed. afternoon at 2pm, it shows the precip. starting to move into the area with low pressure located in the panhandles of TX and OK and an area of low pressure riding along the front in ILL.

Highs throughout the week will fall into the 60s as we progress thru the rest of the work week. Thurs. thru Sat. at least, I am going to continue to leave in a daily threat of showers and T-storms. Here is another 6Z GFS model image valid at 174 hours for Sat. morning at 8am:

As one can see, the cold front is situated out in Indiana, and it should pass thru the region Sat, night. On Sun. we'll see clearing skies by afternoon with highs both days in the 60s.

Long Range Outlook (April 30th - May 7th)

As we begin the month of May, the models are currently showing a few dry days but by May 3rd-4th, another slow moving cold front will be dropping down across the Great Lakes region, and it should push into our region by Fri. night or Sat. (May 4th-5th):

Temps. behind that system should drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s based on this model run. If we do not hit 80 at CVG tomorrow, then I believe my prediction of NOT seeing any 80 degree temps.will come true!

Finally, I'd like to make another announcement...

My friend Trevor who has the USA Weather Forum and Cincy Forecast website, is now doing his own VIDEO Weather Forecasts! The guy does a nice job with graphics and explaining the weather in a way that everyone can understand. Click on the link below to access his forecasts!

http://www.createforum.com/usaweather/viewforum.php?f=18&mforum=usaweather

Weekend Looks Like a Beauty - Stormy Weather to Return

2007-04-18T18:18:00.000-04:00

04/18/07 6:20pm

FINALLY folks!!! It is coming! A beautiful Fri thru Sun period is in store for the Tri-state! Before I get to that, let's look at our current weather situation. We currently have an upper level low over the Great Lakes region. It is currently situated over the Great Lakes.

This satellite imagery tells the story:

Then, as one can see by looking at the 12Z GFS valid at 24 hours, which is 8am tomorrow morning:

This model is overdoing the precip. though, as it had moisture over us for today and we did not see a thing at all other than a few sprinkles in the Southern parts of the Tri-State, A loan T-storm also developed NW of Cynthiana, KY, today too. But, other then that, I am keeping isolated showers in the forecast for tonight and early tomorrow morning. With the expected cloud cover tomorrow, highs should remain in the 50s.

Now... Friday, begins our nice weather! A ridge of high pressure should expand from the Plains into the OH Valley. Highs on Friday will top out in the upper 60s with lower 70s for Sat. and maybe even 75 by sun! Lows thru the period should be in the 40s.

As we start the new workweek, a cold front will be sliding down from the Great Lakes region. It will stall out in our area and provide daily chances at showers and storms thru Wed.

Here is the 12Z GFS image valid at 192 hours for Thurs at 8am:

Highs should still remain near normal to above normal through the Mon - Thurs. period.

Long Range: (April 29th - May 4th)

The stormy pattern will continue throughout the long range period. Here's another 12Z GFS image valid for Sat. April 29th valid at 264 hours.

Beyond that cold front, the GFS continues to bring in storm systems as we head into the new month as well!

Cool Weather Pattern to Continue - NW Flow Dominates

2007-04-15T13:01:00.000-04:00

4/15/07 1:25pm

Hello once again everyone!

I hope everyone is having a nice weekend, although the weather once again has been terrible, with cold and clammy conditions. I lost power here at the Oregonia, OH, branch last night from 4 pm until 3:20 am! So, that's why the blog is being updated today.

Boy oh boy! We have a winter like weather map to talk about today! The NE States are expected to get up to a foot of snow in the interior areas over the next 2-3 days as a monster coastal low stalls out today thru Tues. of the upcoming week. Mountainous areas of the region could get totals exceeding 18" in the highest elevations! WOW!

What does that mean for the OH Valley though? It means NW Flow! Let me explain... the pressure gradient in the upper atmosphere is such that the monster coastal low to our East and at the same time, we have a big blocking high in the NW Atlantic Ocean, near Greenland, which is causing the storm not to be able to push out to sea very quickly. To our West, we have another ridge of high pressure pushing South out of Canada and it's taking up residence in the Plains. This type of jet stream configuration is known as an Omega Block, because it is shaped like the Greek Letter, Omega. This is where you have a trough in the west, a ridge in the plains, and another trough in the Eastern US, then a blocking ridge in the NW Atlantic. This type of weather pattern is slow to breakdown.

So, with that in mind, here in Cincy, we will be dominated in NW Flow. This will keeps temps. below normal, and chances at light precip. from time to time. As we begin the new work week, Mon and Tues. I am keeping dry at this time. A system will try and come into the region Mon,. night, but it's going to be moisture starved. The POP's are so low right now on the GFS, at 16%, that I am leaving the forecast dry until Wed. Highs for Mon should be in the lower 50s and for Tues the upper 50s. I am undercutting the GFS MOS guidance between 2-4 degrees for this forecast period.

Below, you'll see an image of our next system, which again is somewhat weak, but it does show a decent cold pocket aloft with it. A clipper-type low will dive SE out of Canada and move into the region by Wed. night and move out by Thurs. morning. GFS is too warm. I think North of I-70 a few snow showers mixing in could be possible, while everyone else sees scattered showers. This image is from the 6Z GFS run valid at 90 hours out for Wed. April 19th around 8pm.

Highs on Wed. should top out in the upper 40s, and mid 50s by Thurs. I see a NICE Weekend finally for the Tri-state! Fri thru next weekend right now looks BEAUTIFUL as highs could crack 70 by Sunday!

Long Range Outlook: (April 23rd thru May 1st)

Models bring in our next slow moving, heavy rain making system into the region from April 24th thru possibly the 27th! Below is another 6Z GFS Model image valid at 240 hours for April 25th.

Then, after this system moves out, we have another one due in at the end of the month. Here's one final 6Z GFS image valid at 384 hours for May 1st. Look at how far South the 540 line is! All the way down to us!

As you have seen, this weather pattern shows no signs on breaking down at all. My prediction from the beginning of this month I believe are going to come true. No 80 degree readings at CVG until May! I made that prediction on 9th!

Snow Possible for Sat. Morning - Unsettled Weather to Continue

2007-04-12T07:22:00.000-04:00

4/12/07 7:20am

Well, ok... I busted on the severe wx event that we had yesterday. The T-storms were marginally severe with pea sized hail being most common in the reports that I read. Hail covered the ground in a lot of areas as well. For my particular county, Boone Co. in Northern KY, I saw none of this action. I did not bust for my county at least. The storms weakened as they moved through my area, then re-intensified as they moved to my North and East. I must have an "Anti Severe Wx Deflector Shield" up over my house or something.

The models have been trending much, much colder with our next precip. event for this weekend. The models are now in agreement in tracking a surface low pressure system through the TN Valley. This will result in a zero threat for T-storms and more of an E to NE flow with a steady rain. I also think that the precip. could start out as some wet snow briefly before turning over to all rain during the day on Sat. The further NE of Cincinnati that you are, the better chance you'll have at getting snow, versus areas to the SW. The 12Z NAM shows mainly snow on Sat. north of the OH River. That is a bogus model run! The 6Z NAM is in much better agreement with the GFS and the rest of the models. I checked the 0Z GFS model run and it too is in good agreement with the placement of the surface low track.

Here is an image of the 0Z GFS valid at 60 hours, which is 8am Sat. morning:

High temps. on Sat. should be in the lower to middle 40s. For Sunday, we'll continue to see the 40s for high temps. as well with some morning snow showers and afternoon rain showers. The coverage will be spotty though, and I do not see any travel problems for the Cincinnati Tri-state.

As we begin a new work week, FINALLY, some nicer weather will return to the region. After the low moves through the TN Valley this weekend, it will deepen and stall out off of the New England Coast. This will result in a drier weather pattern for us Mon - Wed. of next week with highs in the upper 50s for Mon. warming into the lower to middle 60s for Tues. and Wed. I think for Wed. we'll see increasing clouds in the afternoon ahead of our next storm system.

Long Range Outlook: (April 19th - 28th)

I still see a relatively weak system for Thurs., the 19th. The 0Z GFS is not spitting out much precip. here at this point. After that, another system could affect our region around the 23rd, but at this point, most of the energy looks to be centered over the Great Lakes.

As we come to the end of the long range period, as I stated in my last blog entry, a slow moving heavy rain maker still looks to be in the cards for April 26-28th. I have included another 0Z GFS model run valid at 336 hours.

Wet Times Ahead

2007-04-10T07:14:00.000-04:00

4/10/07 7:15am

Wet times are ahead folks. The first system that I have to talk about is still our midweek system. To me, it looks like after midnight tonight, we should see some showers rolling in, with Wed. particularing looking like a washout at this point. The 6Z NAM model run shows about a third to perhaps a half of an inch of rain with this system, while the 0Z GFS shows about 3/4 of an inch to perhaps an inch in spots.

Here is an image of the 0Z GFS run valid at 36 hours, which would be Wed. morning at 8am.

In my last blog entry, I talked about the system ending as some wet snow Wed. night and early Thurs. morning. That is no longer going to be the case. The precip. will remain all rain with this system. Instability also looks to be very poor, so no T-storms this go around, just a general moderate rainfall event. Highs today will top out in the middle 50s and in the lower 50s tomorrow.

Weekend System

We'll see the action taper off Wed. night, or very early Thurs. morning. Highs on Thurs. should be in the 50s. For Fri., we'll see an increase in clouds as highs soar into the lower to perhaps the middle 60s depending on how much sunshine we get. I look for another system to get in here Fri. night with the rain chances increasing during the day Sat. Highs on Sat. should again be in the 60s, but that will occur ahead of the cold front, then fall during the afternoon back down into the 50s. some general T-storms appear to be possible, but no severe wx is expected. Again, this system looks to bring a half an inch of rain or better to the area.

Below, you'll see the 0Z GFS model run valid at 108 hours, which would be 8am Sat. morning.

High pressure should build back in for Sun. although it'll be a chilly day with highs struggling to hit the 50-52 degree mark.

Long Term Outlook: (April 15-25th)

In previous blog entries, I have talked about a secondary cold snap coming around the 19th or 20th. This no longer looks to be the case, as the model runs from the past 3 days have pretty much taken it out. We might finally be done with the bitter cold and snow that we have seen as of late in the OH Valley. Temps. look to avg near normal for the period, with some temps. slightly below normal at times. Highs in the 50s and 60s look to be the rule for the most part. Precip. wise, the GFS does not show nearly as much storminess as it once did. It shows a weak system for the 19th, and a better looking system around the 23rd and then towards the end of the long range period, a heavy rain event appears possible. At this time though, it keeps the big time precip. to our SW over the Missouri Boothill region.

Freeze Watch thru Tues Morning - Then Turning Stormy

2007-04-07T19:50:00.000-04:00

4/7/07 8:15pm

Even though today is Saturday, I'd like to wish everyone a Happy Easter!!!

The National Weather Service in Wilmington, OH, (ILN) has issued yet again another Freeze Warning for tonight. A Freeze Watch also continues through Tues. morning. Now, the record low for this morning was again, 19 degrees and CVG only bottomed out at 23. Now for Easter morning, the record low is again 19. ILN is going with lower 20s, and the GFS MOS going with 17! I disagree with that low of 17. The only way we're going to even drop below 20 is if we clear out. I think we will, but how soon will it occur? I think personally, it won't be until after midnight. I'm forecasting a morning low of 21.

I have posted below a pic of the GOES Satellite for the Eastern US:

You can see where the clearing line is. It's still down in Central KY, but the clouds will begin to slowly disapate now that the sun has set.

A Stormy Week Developing

Taking a look at the 12Z GFS from today, one will see that we have several storm systems to talk about. We'll begin the week with dry conditions on Mon. and for part of Tues. as well. Highs will moderate into the lower 50s both days. The models bring in a threat of rain late in the day on Tues. with showers really developing in earnest Tues. night and Wed. In fact, as the system pulls out Wed. night and early Thurs. morning, we may even see the precip. switch over to some wet snow shower activity during that time! Highs will be the lower 50s both days and lows in the middle 30s.

Here is an image of the 12Z GFS Model run from today valid for Thurs. April 12th at 120 hours. This will show you the snow threat. One can easily see that the 540 line is dipping into the TN Valley. I don't see any accumulations here, mind you, but some flurries and snow showers could be flying about the area for early Thurs. morning.

High pressure will briefly build in Thurs. afternoon and Fri. as well. Highs should be pushing 60 on Fri. and finally, by Sat. and Sun. we should see normal highs in the lower 60s, but yet again, here comes another storm system! The 12Z GFS is showing the heaviest rains along and to the South of the OH River. I don't see any severe wx threat with this system either as I think that will be to our South from the TN Valley on Southward.

Long Range Outlook: (April 16-23rd)

I still think overall, however, that our cold streak will continue. Our next major low pressure system will come in around the 17th-20th time frame. It looks like another good soaking rain event on the 17-18th then on the 19th and 20th more flurries and snow showers I think will be possible, if the models hold on to their current thinking.

Below, you'll see another 12Z GFS Model run image valid at 288 hours for April 19th:

The model pretty much keeps the 540 line at, or to our South for the rest of the long term period through April 23rd.

Stay tuned for further updates!

Severe WX: What Went Wrong - Cold Air to Dominate!

2007-04-04T08:38:00.000-04:00

4/4/07 8:30am

I'm sure everyone who reads this blog was pumped up about our severe wx chances for yesterday afternoon and evening. What went wrong? Why didn't Cincinnati get anything decent? Around lunchtime, dewpoint (DP) temps. were in the mid 50s, then an hour or two before the storms hit, the DP dropped into the upper 40s. That pretty much killed us right there. Storms off to the SW of us, robbed our atmosphere of its energy source. When the storms hit the Weather Office in Burlington, KY, I had winds of 40 mph, and some nice lightning. No hail to report. The bigger story was the drop in temps. I had a high of 83 around 4 or 5pm, and when the storms moved in, I dropped to 65.3 degrees. The temps. kept falling until even after the rain stopped, and we dropped about 35 or 40 degrees and our temps. will be stuck in the low 40s all day.

Before I continue with the weather, I would like to show you guys an awesome lightning picture. This pic was taken by a great friend of mine, Nick Nonno. It was taken near his home in Blanchester, OH.

My cousin Cory Perry just sent me a pic of some snowfall that he picked up where he goes to College at in the UP of Michigan! Cory reported 70 degrees before the storm hit his area!

If anyone else would like to see some pics posted in the blog, email them to me at walleyefisherman777@yahoo.com

Alrighty, on to the weather. Our big weather story for the next 5-7 days is going to be the cold air! We will be experiencing 5 or 6 mornings in a row with sub-freezing temps! This weekend, we could even be talking about record breaking cold, as the temps. both mornings fall to near 20 degrees. Record lows are at 19 for both Sat. and Sun. mornings. We will certainly be close to that. I don't see too much precip. during this time period as I stated in my last blog entry. We could see a few showers and flurries this afternoon, and again Fri. afternoon. Otherwise highs will range from 40 to 45 through Sun. and lows generally in the 20s through the period, minus this weekend when lows could drop into the upper teens. Highs temps. should be back into the 50s by Mon. and Tues. of next week.

Long Term Outlook: (April 11th - 20th)

Our next decent looking storm system, should occur around the 12-13th according to the 6Z GFS Model run from today. Then, another system again around the 15th-16th. Behind that system, another chilly shot of air appears to be possible lasting through Apr. 20th. So, those lovely 80 degree temps. we have been experiencing, it looks doubtful that we'll be seeing those again anytime soon. Perhaps, not until May... we shall see!

Here is an image of the 6Z GFS Run valid at 192 hours for Thurs. Apr. 12th.

Severe Wx Threat April 3-4th - COLDER Air to Follow

2007-04-01T15:24:00.000-04:00

4/1/07 4:30pm

Mother Nature is certainly going to be playing an April Fool's Joke on the Eastern US, in the coming days. First though, we have a severe wx threat to deal with. Before we get to that though, we certainly have some delightful weather conditions for tomorrow and Tues.

Opening Day Forecast:

I think we'll see wall-to-wall sunshine and breezy SW winds for the game. Wind speeds should avg. 10-15mph with high temps. around 74 degrees! On Tues., we'll see increasing clouds late in the day with temps. forecasted to be in the mid 70s with 76 degrees respectively being forecasted by the GFS model. I'm going with 81 degrees as I think the clouds will hold off until late in the day.

Check out this image below. This is the Day 3 Outlook from the SPC:

As you can see by this map, the highest risk area is just off to our West. That is because the models are not pushing the front through until after midnight Tues. night. If we can speed up the frontal passage by 3 or 4 hours, then we'll be in business for some severe T-storms. Right now, I think with the front coming through at night, the storms will be more linear in nature with a squall line moving through between midnight and 2am.

Below, is a model image of the 6Z GFS. It shows the squall line moving through around 2am.

The biggest concern to me is timing. The models show some nice deep upper level wind shear and moderate instability with temps. in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the afternoon and dewpoints rising into the lower 60s. However, the front may be too far out to the West yet to deliver us with major severe weather. If the front does speed up though, then we'll be under the gun. I'll continue to monitor this potentially dangerous weather situation.

Major Cold Air Outbreak Coming:

Behind the cold front, temps. stay steady or slowly fall on Wed. We'll see mostly cloudy sky conditions as well with temps. around the 50 degree mark. I can not rule out an isolated shower or sprinkles as well. By Thurs., the cold air will be pouring in with highs stuck in the 40s. I see the 40s continuing into the beginning of the next work week, April 9th. Lows through the period will start out into the lower 30s for Thurs. morning and dropping into the lower and middle 20s through the remainder of the period. Sky conditions should be a mixture of sun and clouds with a few light sprinkles or flurries possible from time to time. Mainly though, the big weather story here will be a ridge out West and a deep trough over the Eastern US. The Great Lakes region may even need to brace themselves for a clipper system (April 8-9th) which could bring a light snowfall to the region!

Long Term Outlook: (April 10th - April 17th)

A couple of weak weather systems to start the period as the cool weather pattern continues to linger. At the end of the long-term period, the 12Z GFS shows a nice storm system moving through. See the image below:

As one can see, a low pressure system looks to track right through the OH Valley with around an inch of rain possible. After this system moves out, the cold pattern will break down and a wetter and stormier pattern looks to redevelop once again.

I'll continue to monitor the severe wx threat for late Tues. and Tues. night. Stay tuned to this blog, and the USA Weather Forum for further updates.

A Nice Friday - Followed by a Rainy Weekend

2007-03-29T18:32:00.000-04:00

3/29/07 6:40pm

It turned out to be a beautiful day today! The high officially at CVG was 70 today! Wow, the models blew that one by 5 degrees or more! Just as how clouds can blow a temp. forecast, so can the sun! A few hours of afternoon sun pushed our temps from 60 around noon to 70 around 5pm. Amazing!

I expect one more beautiful day tomorrow too! Normal high for this time of year is now up to 60! The GFS Mos data says 69. I think that it's too cool and I believe that we'll get into the lower 70s tomorrow. I am going with 71 or 72 degrees respectively for tomorrow's high.

The 12Z GFS Run from this afternoon, has now sped up the weekend system for Sat. morning now. Sat. is looking llike an all day type of rain at this point, all out ahead of a cold front, which will slowly clear the area by Sun. I think Sat. night the dry slot moves in and we should be dry. But, by Sun. the cold front is closing in, and another shot at showers and some isolated T-storms are possible. The action should clear out by Sun. evening. Highs for this weekend, look to be a shade too warm as indicated by the GFS. It shows 68 and 69 a piece. I'm going with 66 for Sat. under all the clouds and rain and 67 for Sun. If we get any sun though then we'll crack 70. We'll see.

Opening Day Outlook:

For those of you attending the Reds Opening Day on Monday, April 2nd, we should see wall-to-wall sunshine, and a nice Southerly breeze, especially in the afternoon. Highs should make it into the lower 70s under sunny skies! The GFS is going with a whopping 74! I actually agree! I was thinking 68 yesterday, then 72 this morning. But as the GFS continues to trend warmer for Mon, so is my forecast.

Our next weather maker moves in for Tues. and Wed. bringing with it a chance of showers and storms. Highs will be in the lower 70s on Tues, dropping into the 60s by Wed . The mild pattern breaks down beginning on Thurs. of next week. Highs then are forecasted to be 52 by the GFS, and I'll agree with that, at this time.

Long Term Outlook: Apr 6th - 14th

There's not too much change in the extended outlook from what I wrote about in my last blog entry. The chilly weather pattern and also stormy weather pattern looks to continue. I think the entire month will avg. out to be below normal in temps. and above normal in rainfall. The Pacific Ocean is lined up with a parade of storms out there.

At the same time, if a blocking high develops over SE Canada and Greenland, which the models are beginning to hoan in on, then we can expect very cold air during the extended outlook period. If we see that blocking develop, then a cold high out of Canada will drop down, and possibly produce record cold for some areas, like the Great Lakes and New England. We'll have to wait and see as the GFS does have a cold bias. But, at any rate, look for periodic heavy rain makers, not much, if any, severe weather, and chilly days with highs in the 40s and 50s looking like a decent bet at this point with morning lows in the 30s POSSIBLY dipping into the 20s as well.

Stay tuned to my blog for further details. Also, please sign up at the USA Weather Forum if you have not done so. If you have, then POST some Messages! For those that do post, I thank you!!! Also, if you register, you can leave comments on this blog entry and any other entries that I have made. I read all comments and respond to everyone of them! You must click on the comment link which is located at the end of each blog entry, and then register with this blogger site, and you're ready to leave comments! Again, it's all free!

USA Weather Network:

http://www.createforum.com/usaweather

Severe Weather Threat for March 31st

2007-03-27T20:13:00.000-04:00

3/27/07 8:15pm

I'm writing this blog entry to talk about Severe Wx chances for the early weekend storm system. I say that because of the 18Z Nam and 12Z GFS model runs from today.

First, the SPC Says:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Now, based on that threat map, we stand a slight chance of seeing Severe T-storms. I'm not all that impressed right now with the severe wx aspects.

The model runs today say, nope! Why? Timing! They bring the front thru on Sat. night/early Sun. morning. I think a slight chance of T-storms tomorrow evening, maybe 20-30% coverage, per the GFS. NAM also shows a bit of mositure too. To me, Thurs. and Fri. will be dry. Then by Sat. afternoon, showers and storms should move into the region with a strong cold front. 50-70% appears to be a good bet at this point. We'll fine tune the rain amount forecast later on, as the event draws nearer.

I'll be making edits on this post throughout the coming days as well. Stay tuned to this blog, and the USA WeatherNetwork for further updates!

Daily Chances at Storms this Week - Cooler by the Weekend

2007-03-25T13:40:00.000-04:00

3/25/07 1:50pm - Edited 7pm - Edit #2 - 3/26/07 5:55pm

It's been a while since I have updated the blog here, but I'm currently out of town doing this from a remote location. I had to find the model links and everything again, which I have done. What a beautiful weekend that we have in progress! We reached a high in the upper 70s yesterday, followed by a high close to 80 today and near 82 tomorrow! I even managed to get out on the water yesterday to do some crappie fishing. My Brother and I had a blast! We caught over 125 fish and cleaned 73! It was a great day to be outside, and it still is today.

The models are pretty much showing us a daily chance of showers and T-storms for the majority of the upcoming work week. Not everyone will see rain everyday, but when a shower or a storm moves over you, you'll know it's there, as most storms should remain below severe limits until we get to the end of the week. We'll have a good chance at seeing some strong storms on Mon as well, but to me, the best chance of severe weather will be when the main cold front finally pushes across our region, which again, will be at week's end.

That same ridge of high pressure that I have been talking about is still there off of the SE Coast. It is now going to strengthen even more this week to pretty much keep the cold front at bay over the Plain States. Also, a slow moving Upper Level Low will be bringing heavy flooding rains to TX. Currently, some areas in the Hill Country could get up to 5" of rain by midnight!

For us, little pieces of energy will continue to head our way out ahead of the aforementioned storm system. That's what'll provide us with our daily chances at storms. Also, we'll begin the week extremely mild and after the main cold front pushes thru, we'll see some much cooler air move in by next weekend. Temp. wise, we'll see highs around 80 today, probably around 82 or so for tomorrow, then slowly, we'll drop through the 70s and eventually, highs will tumble back down to normal levels by next Sat., with a current high of 63 expected.

Long Range: (April 1-10th)

Below normal temps. look to be the rule here, as we go through a pattern change again. A trough should reside over the Central and Eastern US during this period. We'll see a NW flow aloft which is horrible for severe weather. The slow start for the OH Valley here looks to continue outside of our end of the week chance. Today's 6Z GFS model run shows a nice heavy rain event still for Apr 5th-6th.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US

So, as always, I'll continue to monitor.

EDIT:

The record high for 3/26 is 82 set back in 1907. I think we'll beat that record as well. GFS MOS says: 78 - But lately, as we all know, it has been underforecasting the warmth.

I'm going with 84 degrees.

EDIT #2:

Well, I busted folks, plain and simple. CVG only topped out at 78 to my knowledge, 4 degrees shy of a record and 6 degrees cooler then my forecasted high of 84. What went wrong? Two words: Cloud cover If we would have received the sunshine that we did yesterday, then yes, we would have hit my high temp.

My KUDO today goes out to Nick and his "Baby" the GFS! The GFS nailed it perfectly!

Warmer Weather Moving In - Also Stormy From Time to Time

2007-03-20T19:39:00.000-04:00

3/20/07 7:40pm

Happy Spring Everyone!!! Today is the first day of Spring. Well, not today, but it does officially begin this evening. As such, Mother Nature is right on cue with warmer temps. in our future and also stormy conditions at times as well.

Before we get to that, I'd like to let everyone know that I attended a Storm Spotter Training course last night. It was sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Wilmington, OH. I learned quite a bit of useful information too! We talked about the life cycles of tornadoes and T-storms, how to detect them on radar, what to look for on the ground, and also some valuable safety tips. I'll be reporting severe weather to the NWS whenever it occurs in the Tri-State region, especially when it moves through the Weather Office here in Burlington. KUDOS again to Trevor Cole (a.k.a. Twister), who invited me to attend the event. It was great learning about everything with him and his Dad!

If you would like to become a storm spotter too, click on the link below for more information. Fortunately, I got in just in time, as time is running out for this year's training. But, there's always next year!

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/iln/training.htm

Today's models are still showing a warm front moving through the region late tonight/early tomorrow morning. So, we should see some rainfall across the region in the form of showers during this time. I can not rule out an isolated T-storm either, but instability does not look all that great right now according to the models. The strong ridge of high pressure, which is still located off of the SE Coast, keeps slowing down systems as they try and pass through our area. What the ridge will do, though is put us under a strong SW flow, which will in turn keep us above normal in the temp. dept. though the next 10 days at least.

After the warm front, we'll be in the warm sector Wed. night and Thurs., so for the most part, we should remain dry, but by Thurs. afternoon, as the cold front begins to slowly move towards the region, showers will again be on the increase. The NAM is much faster than the GFS today, so I will side with the GFS for this forecast package, especially since it is in line more with the Euro model. If the GFS and Euro are in agreement, then my confidence as a forecaster grows! The rain should continue for Thurs. night as well. Behind the front, we'll see a one day cool shot of air, which will be on Friday. Some more showers are possible as well here. Remember, due to the strength of the SE Ridge, systems will be slow to move out of the area.

As we head into the weekend, I can not rule out a lingering chance at some rain, especially Sat. morning, but by Sunday, we should be under sunny skies again as well with temps. rebounding to well above normal levels. As we begin yet another workweek, a new cold front should begin to affect the region with a chance of showers and T-storms yet again both Mon. and Tues.

At this point, nothing looks to be severe as far as T-storms go, however, we can never rule out an isolated storm. But, the chances at anything being widespread appear doubtful at this time. Checking the latest from the SPC, they show all of the severe weather to our West. Why do you ask? Because of the SE Ridge, slowing these fronts down, and weakening them as they try and break the ridge down. I do not see the ridge breaking down for again, the next 10 days at least. So, as these systems move into the OH Valley, they lose a lot of their energy. If you take a look at the current SPC Outlooks, you'll see what I mean. Look at the Day 2 Outlook (For Thurs.) and also the 4-8 Day Outlook, which shows the Western half of Texas potentially seeing a lot of action.

http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook

As far as temps. go through the period, after the warm front passes through in the morning, temps. will soar into the mid to upper 60s. If we see enough sunshine, then some areas may even break the 70 degree mark! We'll see winds begin to pick up out of the SE then the SW by afternoon after the warm front moves through. Wind gusts to 30mph are possible. For Thurs., winds could gust to 35mph then as highs make it into the lower 70's. The GFS MOS has a high of 71 here, and I actually think that looks good, especially if the slower GFS model solution verifies.

For Fri., we'll be behind the front as winds switch back around to the W and NW. Temps. will only make it into the mid to upper 50s then. The GFS I think is too warm under all of the clouds and showers that will be around. It has a high of 63 then, which I think is incorrect. 58 looks good in my opinion at this point.

By the weekend, I think we'll be back into the mid 60s for Sat, and cracking 70 again by Sun. Mon and Tues. of next week also appear to be mild with temps. in the 60's both days as well.

Long Range: (March 28 - Apr 5th)

The long range period here shows a dry Wed. and some more showers for Thurs. with another front moving through the area. After that, the GFS shows a dry period of weather with mild temps. Mar 30th - Apr. 2nd as the majority of the storms look to target the Great Lakes along a stationary front. In fact, it looks like a VERY wet period for the Great Lakes during most of the long range period. For us, April 3-5th, a slow moving front will begin to finally make a move towards our area. A heavy rain event appears possible at this point along with some severe weather, if the 12Z GFS run were to verify. I'll continue to monitor as this weather event, is a long ways off. Also, the system could easily weaken as it tries to break down the SE Ridge, or even slow down further. Temps. overall look to remain nice and mild through the period.

A Slow Moderating Trend for the Upcoming Week

2007-03-17T13:36:00.000-04:00

3/17/07 3:30pm

Happy St. Patty's Day Everyone!!!

Before I begin today's Model Discussion, I'd like to give another one of my friend's a plug here. An intelligent man by the name of Nick Nonno, from Blanchester, OH, is now doing weather video forecasts! Please check this out! He does an excellent job with model discussions, using a cool backdrop, sound effects, and radar graphics. He usually updates it daily. To view his video, click on this link below, and be sure to add it to your list of favorites: http://youtube.com/profile?user=NicksWxCast

Now, on to the weather...

Today's model runs are still showing our next storm system moving into the region late Sun. night and continuing into Mon. night. At the moment, a wintry mix at the onset of precip. is still possible, but I think areas North of I-275 still stand the best chance at seeing this. Again, I do not anticipate any travel problems at this time. I'll continue to monitor. On Monday, it'll be all rain for everyone and the rains should really get going in the afternoon. I think .25-.50" of rain is possible with this system. Temps. on Sunday still look to remain in the 40s with temps. rising into the lower 50s on Monday.

High pressure will briefly build in for Tues, as the front will stall to our South. Highs on Tues. will be similar to Monday. On Wed., the front will lift North as a warm front in response to a trough moving in from the West and a ridge developing over the SE Coast. As the warm front lifts Northward thru the region, temps. will continue to moderate, and warm close to 60 degrees. Also, a chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible Wed. afternoon as well.

On Thurs. and Fri., we will be in the warm sector as the warm front is to our North and a cold front is situated from near Chicago SW to North of St. Louis SW to Dallas. Currently, the models are not showing any focusing mechanism to get any storms going, so as of this post, I am keeping Thurs. and Fri. dry. Temps. on Thurs. should reach the mid 60s and close to 70 by Fri.

Long Term Outlook:

Fri. night and Sat., the cold front should be affecting the region with showers and T-storms. Currently, next Sun. appears to be dry. After that, March 27-28th, the models are showing a strong storm system moving in with big time rains possible here, especially on the 28th. We will also need to keep an eye on the threat for Severe T-storms as well. Another front drops down from Canada March 31-Apr 1st with a chilly shot of air to begin the new month. As I have been saying for a while now, a couple of severe weather threats look possible during the last week of March.

Continue to monitor this blog, the USA Weather Forum, Anthony's Audio Forecasts, Twister's Cincy Forecast website, and now Nick's Video Forecasts for all of the latest weather information!

A Cold Weekend in Store then Turning Stormy

2007-03-15T11:39:00.000-04:00

3/15/07 11:40am

Well, as predicted, we did not see any severe weather in the Tri-State. As predicted, severe weather was reported in Northern OH, as a couple of tornadoes did occur last night up that way. This morning, those same areas were receiving wintry weather!!! In fact, winter weather advisories and ice storm warnings were in effect! For us, our temp. also dropped dramatically. At 5am CVG was 61, then at 7am, we had rain and a temp. of 39! WOW! What a drop! The current temp as of 12 noon is 37 degrees. For the rest of today, we can expect some more rain, with the heaviest rains remaining to our North. The rain will begin to taper off this afternoon.

Current radar image:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=ILN&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

As of this post, the bulk of the rain has moved out of the Northern parts of the Tri-State and is now pretty much situated along and to the SE of I-71. The trend will continue for the rain to taper off, and by this afternoon, it should be over with. I think we'll have a dry rush hour as well.

As we hit Friday, it'll be a chilly day with highs remaining in the 40s, and that trend will continue on into the weekend as well. Our next storm system will arrive Sun. night and last on into the day on Monday. At this point, it looks to be all rain. However, if the precip. moves in fast enough, it could start out as a little bit of wintry precip. but at this point, it does not look to be a big deal at all. I'll continue to monitor that for you.

For the rest of next week, I think we'll see temps. slowly rebound into the 60s by Wed. as yet another storm system moves into the region with some T-storms possible late Wed. and possibly lasting into Thurs. as well. It's a long ways off, so I'll continue to watch the models in regards to the timing there and strength of the system.

GFS MOS Temps for CVG:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/KY.MRF.htm

I think for temps., I agree with the forecasted temps. for Fri - Sun. as you can see it shows 46 all 3 days. Also, Mon. looks decent at 54 as well. However for Tues., I think we'll be closer to 60 and for Wed., 59 looks to be too cold. I'm going with 65 for a high at this time.

Long Range:

As I have stated in previous blog entries, the end of March does look to be stormy. The last week in particular. This morning, the 0Z run of the GFS showed a big cut off low affecting the OH Valley bringing rounds of rain to the area after March 25th and lasting thru the end of the month. It also showed the 540 line (rain/snow line) being pretty far to the South at times, which also suggests some wintry precip as well. Taking a look at the newest run, 6Z, it still shows a stormy period, however, it is less aggressive with the colder air and keeps everything rain with the 540 line way up in Northern Lower Michigan. At this time, I am not going to bite on to the wintry solution of the 0Z GFS, nor am I going to bite on to the cut off low either. Today, was the first time that I have seen the cut-off low scenerio in any model run, so I'd like to see how the models continue to handle the last week of March as we get closer to that timeframe. What I can say with confidence is that the remainder of March does look to be stormy with above normal precip. looking to be a good bet for the Eastern US, and whether the cold air will be able to get this far South remains in question.

As always, stay with your inboxes, this blog, and the USA Weather Forum for further updates!