We have some warmer temps. moving in followed by a storm for your Christmas Weekend. Colder air and perhaps some flurries on Christmas Eve? Check out my Video Forecast for this, PLUS my Travel Forecast for selected cities around the nation!
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Warmer Temps. Followed by a Weekend Storm
12/18/07 9:30pm
We have some warmer temps. moving in followed by a storm for your Christmas Weekend. Colder air and perhaps some flurries on Christmas Eve? Check out my Video Forecast for this, PLUS my Travel Forecast for selected cities around the nation!
We have some warmer temps. moving in followed by a storm for your Christmas Weekend. Colder air and perhaps some flurries on Christmas Eve? Check out my Video Forecast for this, PLUS my Travel Forecast for selected cities around the nation!
Monday, December 10, 2007
Heavy Rain Possible This Week - Weekend Snow Storm?
12/10/07 9pm
Check out the latest Video Forecast below for my thoughts on our heavy rain potential for this week. Also, could there be a snow storm looming for this weekend?
Check out the latest Video Forecast below for my thoughts on our heavy rain potential for this week. Also, could there be a snow storm looming for this weekend?
Thursday, December 6, 2007
More Snowfall For Tonight - Followed by a Wet Patterm
12/6/07 9:30pm
Check out the video below for my thoughts on tonight's snowfall as well as a rainy future.
Check out the video below for my thoughts on tonight's snowfall as well as a rainy future.
Monday, December 3, 2007
Clipper to Bring Accumulating Snow Wed.
12/3/07 8:30pm
Check out the Video to see my thoughts on our Wed. clipper system. A snowfall map is also included. I then touch on a snow to rain event for Friday as well, followed by a warming trend for the weekend.
Check out the Video to see my thoughts on our Wed. clipper system. A snowfall map is also included. I then touch on a snow to rain event for Friday as well, followed by a warming trend for the weekend.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Winter Storm this Weekend to be a Rainmaker For Us
11/28/07 9pm
Our Weekend Winter Storm will be primarily a rainmaker for the Tri-State changing to snow late Sun. night and ending Mon. morning. For my thoughts on this storm, check out the video.
Our Weekend Winter Storm will be primarily a rainmaker for the Tri-State changing to snow late Sun. night and ending Mon. morning. For my thoughts on this storm, check out the video.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
A Rainy Mon. Followed by a Wintry Mix on Thurs?
11/24/07 10pm
Monday will be a rainy day throughout the region, followed by a wintry mix on Thurs! Also, I will discuss our possible snow and cold air prospects for Dec.
Monday will be a rainy day throughout the region, followed by a wintry mix on Thurs! Also, I will discuss our possible snow and cold air prospects for Dec.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Turkey Day Storm Update - Snow on the 27-28th?
11/18/07 8:30pm
I'll have your Thanksgiving Week forecast, as well as a look into a possible cold and snowy future!
I'll have your Thanksgiving Week forecast, as well as a look into a possible cold and snowy future!
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Strong Front for Tomorrow - Big Turkey Day Storm?
11/13/07 9pm
We have a strong cold front for tomorrow, that will drop our temps. by almost 20 degrees! We have the potential to see a big storm for Turkey Day. Could we see our first snowfall before the end of the month?
We have a strong cold front for tomorrow, that will drop our temps. by almost 20 degrees! We have the potential to see a big storm for Turkey Day. Could we see our first snowfall before the end of the month?
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Monday, November 5, 2007
A Temperature Roller Coaster Ride
11/5/07 8:30pm
Tonight, I will talk about a temperature roller coaster ride over the next several weeks as well as an increased risk of storminess.
Tonight, I will talk about a temperature roller coaster ride over the next several weeks as well as an increased risk of storminess.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Cold Air on the Way - Noel to Effect New England
11/2/07 11:30pm
Tonight, I will talk about a cold front Mon. night, which will usher in much colder air behind it. I'll give you an update on Noel as well. The drought is over for the Tri-State, and could we even have a much stronger push of cold air by the middle of the month?
Tonight, I will talk about a cold front Mon. night, which will usher in much colder air behind it. I'll give you an update on Noel as well. The drought is over for the Tri-State, and could we even have a much stronger push of cold air by the middle of the month?
Monday, October 29, 2007
High Pressure to Continue this Week - Noel in Tropics
10/29/07 9:30pm
In tonight's forecast, high pressure will dominate this week. I'll give you a Halloween Forecast update too. We also have Tropical Storm Noel, and finally an update on the cold blast coming for November.
7 Day Forecast:
In tonight's forecast, high pressure will dominate this week. I'll give you a Halloween Forecast update too. We also have Tropical Storm Noel, and finally an update on the cold blast coming for November.
7 Day Forecast:
Thursday, October 25, 2007
High Pressure Starting Sun - Arctic Blast for Nov.?
10/25/07 8:30 pm
Tonight, I will talk about the cut off low soon to be exiting the region, then a return to High Pressure! Also, you will get a sneak peak at your Halloween Forecast, an update on the drought, as well as a cold blast coming for November!
If the player does not work on your PC, then click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=756930066936351745&hl=en
Tonight, I will talk about the cut off low soon to be exiting the region, then a return to High Pressure! Also, you will get a sneak peak at your Halloween Forecast, an update on the drought, as well as a cold blast coming for November!
If the player does not work on your PC, then click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=756930066936351745&hl=en
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Cut-Off Low to Bring Damp and Cloudy Weather
10/21/07 9pm
A cut-off low will effect the region this week. Get the latest details by watching my forecast below.
If the player does not work, then click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2432990535301728210&hl=en
My 7 Day:
A cut-off low will effect the region this week. Get the latest details by watching my forecast below.
If the player does not work, then click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2432990535301728210&hl=en
My 7 Day:
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Les's Winter Weather Outlook for the OH Valley - 2007-2008
10/20/07 11pm
Welcome to my Winter Weather Forecast for the OH Valley for the 2007/2008 season! Sit back and relax and I hope you find this to be an enjoyable read.
FALL 2007
Fall started out where summer left off. A persistent ridge of high pressure over the Eastern US kept us high and dry. We were much above normal in temps. and much below normal in precip. The pattern remained the same for the first week of Oct. as well. Temps. are still running above normal as I write this forecast, however, we have finally begun to see an increase in precip. We just went through a stormy 2 day period this week, and the potential exists for another 2-4 day precip. event for next week.
As we end Oct. and begin Nov., I expect us to be colder then normal for temps. I think we could see our first freeze in the first week or two of the month. We may begin to see milder temps. towards the later part of the month, but overall, I expect temps. to be below avg. for the month and above avg. precip. I see the drought continuing to improve for our region as well.
LA NINA:
Now on to some things that I am taking into consideration when making this forecast. First of all, as most people know, La Nina is the cooling of the Pacific waters down by the equator off of South America. Typical La Nina effects on the OH Valley are warmer then normal temps. and above normal in precip. However, temps. are highly dependant on the strength of the event. Weak to Moderate La Nina's can give us cooler to slightly above normal in temps. while strong La Nina's can give us much above normal in temps. Currently, La Nina has been strengthening into a moderate event. Some of the long range models expect it to become a strong event, while others keep it moderate and even weaken it some by December or Jan.
Here is a current snapshot of La Nina.
Note that small area of warmer water just to the North of the cooler water just of the South American Coast. Could La Nina have reached its peak, or is this just a temporary fluctuation?
Here are the Four Nino Regions Below:
Nino Region 3.4 is the one that is officially used when a La Nina (or El Nino) is declared. Note, how it continues to drop, meaning that La Nina is getting stronger. However, look at the other regions. Regions 3 and 1+2 are both starting to warm a little bit. Again, is this temporary, or will they drop again? Only time well tell.
THE NAO
The NAO stands for the North Atlantic Oscillation. Typically, when it is in a negative phase, the Eastern US will see colder and stormier weather. In a positive phase, the Eastern US typically sees warmer and less stormier weather.
Here is the most current NAO forecast for the next 10 days:
As you can see it is forecast to be negative by months end, and this is one factor that I used in my Nov. cold start to the month forecast from above. The NAO really can not be accurately forecast more then one or two weeks in advance. But, for what its worth, I think for Dec., the NAO could be negative for the month.
I'd like to show you a model image from the German Climate Model for the month of Dec.
Now, this is technically not a negative NAO, but rather a Scandinavian Block. If this block though forms a little further West towards Greenland then Dec. could be a cold and possibly snowy month. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
For Jan. and Feb., the NAO is shown to be slightly positive in Jan. and majorly positive in Feb. Below, are the German Climate Models for Jan. and Feb. below.
Jan 2008
Feb 2008
THE PNA
The Pacific North American index can be summed up easily. If it is negative, that typically depicts a trough in the West and a ridge in the East. The opposite is true for a positive index.
Here is the 10 day forecast of the PNA below:
This is another reason why I am going with a cold start to Nov. since it is forecast to be positive.
THE QBO
The QBO is another index that measures the Easterly and Westerly trade winds blowing over the Pacific in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The QBO has been extremely negative and has continued to drop even at the end of Sept. This means that it is in a strong Easterly Phase. Not too much is known about the QBO, but to favor a cold and snowy winter in the Eastern US, we do not want to see the value this negative.
See the graph below.
I do expect the QBO to weaken during the winter and for it to start making a rise back towards positive. Unfortunately, I do not have October's index yet as it won't come out until the first week of November. But it'll be interesting to see if it starts trending the other way or not.
ARCTIC SNOW COVER:
As we all snow Arctic snow cover plays a huge role in getting arctic air masses to build up and modifying less as they head down into the Lower 48. The snow cover and sea ice is way below normal this year. However, it has begun to build. A lot of forecasters think that we won't see many arctic outbreaks due to this. However, I disagree. It is still early and things can change quickly. I have already seen snow cover beginning to build in Alaska and Canada with explosive development going on in Siberia. With a negative NAO we could see good cross polar flow to send some of that cold air over the poles and down into the Lower 48. We have 40 days or so yet before Dec 1st gets here and a lot of things can change.
Below, you will see the current snow cover map:
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE OHIO VALLEY
Now, for sensible weather... I expect this winter to be a variable one in terms of both temps. and precip. types that we can expect. This is typical for La Nina winters. At times, when the SE Ridge is strong, then we'll see rain versus snow as the storm track will be to our North and West. At other times, when the ridge is gone (like when the NAO is negative) then we'll see the track to our South, which will allow us to be on the colder side of a storm system, and we'll get snow. I think this year, the OH Valley will be on the battle line between the SE ridge and the colder air to the North and West. I expect lots of storminess this winter and large temperature swings. Overall, I expect our temps. to be above normal, and precip. to also be above normal.
Mean storm tracks throughout the winter:
SNOWFALL OUTLOOK:
In terms of snowfall, I expect the further North and West you go, is going to be your best chance at getting above normal snowfall. I think for us here in the Cincinnati Tri-state, I think near to slightly above normal snowfall can be expected with amounts of between 20-26" for the season. Normal snowfall for CVG is 22".
My Snowfall Forecast for the Wilmington Forecast Area:
In conclusion, I expect 60 one day and 20 the next. Some storms will be bring rain and others snow. Due to us being on the battle line, as depicted in my above map, I expect an increased threat for an ice storm or two as well. We'll see a lot of rain changing to snow events also. The potential is there for a blockbuster storm or two (over 8") as well due to this pattern configuration. Hang on folks, as I think it'll be a bumpy ride this winter. You may have read a lot of things by other forecasters that winter is over! I totally disagree and hope that my Outlook sheds some light on it.
Thanks for reading and let the fun begin!
Welcome to my Winter Weather Forecast for the OH Valley for the 2007/2008 season! Sit back and relax and I hope you find this to be an enjoyable read.
FALL 2007
Fall started out where summer left off. A persistent ridge of high pressure over the Eastern US kept us high and dry. We were much above normal in temps. and much below normal in precip. The pattern remained the same for the first week of Oct. as well. Temps. are still running above normal as I write this forecast, however, we have finally begun to see an increase in precip. We just went through a stormy 2 day period this week, and the potential exists for another 2-4 day precip. event for next week.
As we end Oct. and begin Nov., I expect us to be colder then normal for temps. I think we could see our first freeze in the first week or two of the month. We may begin to see milder temps. towards the later part of the month, but overall, I expect temps. to be below avg. for the month and above avg. precip. I see the drought continuing to improve for our region as well.
LA NINA:
Now on to some things that I am taking into consideration when making this forecast. First of all, as most people know, La Nina is the cooling of the Pacific waters down by the equator off of South America. Typical La Nina effects on the OH Valley are warmer then normal temps. and above normal in precip. However, temps. are highly dependant on the strength of the event. Weak to Moderate La Nina's can give us cooler to slightly above normal in temps. while strong La Nina's can give us much above normal in temps. Currently, La Nina has been strengthening into a moderate event. Some of the long range models expect it to become a strong event, while others keep it moderate and even weaken it some by December or Jan.
Here is a current snapshot of La Nina.
Note that small area of warmer water just to the North of the cooler water just of the South American Coast. Could La Nina have reached its peak, or is this just a temporary fluctuation?
Here are the Four Nino Regions Below:
Nino Region 3.4 is the one that is officially used when a La Nina (or El Nino) is declared. Note, how it continues to drop, meaning that La Nina is getting stronger. However, look at the other regions. Regions 3 and 1+2 are both starting to warm a little bit. Again, is this temporary, or will they drop again? Only time well tell.
THE NAO
The NAO stands for the North Atlantic Oscillation. Typically, when it is in a negative phase, the Eastern US will see colder and stormier weather. In a positive phase, the Eastern US typically sees warmer and less stormier weather.
Here is the most current NAO forecast for the next 10 days:
As you can see it is forecast to be negative by months end, and this is one factor that I used in my Nov. cold start to the month forecast from above. The NAO really can not be accurately forecast more then one or two weeks in advance. But, for what its worth, I think for Dec., the NAO could be negative for the month.
I'd like to show you a model image from the German Climate Model for the month of Dec.
Now, this is technically not a negative NAO, but rather a Scandinavian Block. If this block though forms a little further West towards Greenland then Dec. could be a cold and possibly snowy month. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
For Jan. and Feb., the NAO is shown to be slightly positive in Jan. and majorly positive in Feb. Below, are the German Climate Models for Jan. and Feb. below.
Jan 2008
Feb 2008
THE PNA
The Pacific North American index can be summed up easily. If it is negative, that typically depicts a trough in the West and a ridge in the East. The opposite is true for a positive index.
Here is the 10 day forecast of the PNA below:
This is another reason why I am going with a cold start to Nov. since it is forecast to be positive.
THE QBO
The QBO is another index that measures the Easterly and Westerly trade winds blowing over the Pacific in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The QBO has been extremely negative and has continued to drop even at the end of Sept. This means that it is in a strong Easterly Phase. Not too much is known about the QBO, but to favor a cold and snowy winter in the Eastern US, we do not want to see the value this negative.
See the graph below.
I do expect the QBO to weaken during the winter and for it to start making a rise back towards positive. Unfortunately, I do not have October's index yet as it won't come out until the first week of November. But it'll be interesting to see if it starts trending the other way or not.
ARCTIC SNOW COVER:
As we all snow Arctic snow cover plays a huge role in getting arctic air masses to build up and modifying less as they head down into the Lower 48. The snow cover and sea ice is way below normal this year. However, it has begun to build. A lot of forecasters think that we won't see many arctic outbreaks due to this. However, I disagree. It is still early and things can change quickly. I have already seen snow cover beginning to build in Alaska and Canada with explosive development going on in Siberia. With a negative NAO we could see good cross polar flow to send some of that cold air over the poles and down into the Lower 48. We have 40 days or so yet before Dec 1st gets here and a lot of things can change.
Below, you will see the current snow cover map:
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE OHIO VALLEY
Now, for sensible weather... I expect this winter to be a variable one in terms of both temps. and precip. types that we can expect. This is typical for La Nina winters. At times, when the SE Ridge is strong, then we'll see rain versus snow as the storm track will be to our North and West. At other times, when the ridge is gone (like when the NAO is negative) then we'll see the track to our South, which will allow us to be on the colder side of a storm system, and we'll get snow. I think this year, the OH Valley will be on the battle line between the SE ridge and the colder air to the North and West. I expect lots of storminess this winter and large temperature swings. Overall, I expect our temps. to be above normal, and precip. to also be above normal.
Mean storm tracks throughout the winter:
SNOWFALL OUTLOOK:
In terms of snowfall, I expect the further North and West you go, is going to be your best chance at getting above normal snowfall. I think for us here in the Cincinnati Tri-state, I think near to slightly above normal snowfall can be expected with amounts of between 20-26" for the season. Normal snowfall for CVG is 22".
My Snowfall Forecast for the Wilmington Forecast Area:
In conclusion, I expect 60 one day and 20 the next. Some storms will be bring rain and others snow. Due to us being on the battle line, as depicted in my above map, I expect an increased threat for an ice storm or two as well. We'll see a lot of rain changing to snow events also. The potential is there for a blockbuster storm or two (over 8") as well due to this pattern configuration. Hang on folks, as I think it'll be a bumpy ride this winter. You may have read a lot of things by other forecasters that winter is over! I totally disagree and hope that my Outlook sheds some light on it.
Thanks for reading and let the fun begin!
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Severe Weather Threat This Evening and Tonight
10/18/07 6pm
We have the potential to see a major outbreak of severe weather this evening and overnight. Check out the video below for my thoughts.
If the player does not work, click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5053586913905867608&hl=en
We have the potential to see a major outbreak of severe weather this evening and overnight. Check out the video below for my thoughts.
If the player does not work, click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5053586913905867608&hl=en
Monday, October 15, 2007
Rain for Tomorrow Followed by Severe WX on Thurs?
10/17/07 8:45pm
In this addition, I will talk about our cold front for tomorrow, and our Severe WX Threat for Thurs. Could there be even more storminess and cold air for month's end?
If the player does not work, click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7065245957330474757&hl=en
My 7 Day:
In this addition, I will talk about our cold front for tomorrow, and our Severe WX Threat for Thurs. Could there be even more storminess and cold air for month's end?
If the player does not work, click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7065245957330474757&hl=en
My 7 Day:
Thursday, October 11, 2007
A Warming Trend Followed by a Tues. Cold Front
10/11/07 8:30pm
In this addition, I will talk about a warming trend coming up for this weekend and early next week. I will also talk about a cold front due in for Tues., and also give you an update on our drought.
If the player does not work, click on the link below to watch the forecast.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4565668402095827771&hl=en
My 7 Day:
In this addition, I will talk about a warming trend coming up for this weekend and early next week. I will also talk about a cold front due in for Tues., and also give you an update on our drought.
If the player does not work, click on the link below to watch the forecast.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4565668402095827771&hl=en
My 7 Day:
Monday, October 8, 2007
Cooler Air on the Way!
10/08/07 8pm
In this addition, I will discuss our early morning cold front, and the cooler air that will follow behind it for the rest of the week. Also, how long will it last?
If the player does not work on your computer, then click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-642418658630326484
My 7 Day Forecast:
In this addition, I will discuss our early morning cold front, and the cooler air that will follow behind it for the rest of the week. Also, how long will it last?
If the player does not work on your computer, then click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-642418658630326484
My 7 Day Forecast:
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Record Setting Heat and the Strengthening La Nina
10/04/07 7:30pm
In this addition, I will discuss our current record setting heat, rainfall potential for Wed. of next week, the latest drought update, and the strengthening La Nina.
In this addition, I will discuss our current record setting heat, rainfall potential for Wed. of next week, the latest drought update, and the strengthening La Nina.
If the player does not work on your PC, click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8666010237241324571&hl=en
My 7 Day:
Monday, October 1, 2007
More Heat This Week and a Sunday Cold Front
10/01/07 7:15pm
In this addition, I will begin to report data from The Burlington Weather Office instead of CVG. My weather station is on-line and fully opertional now. We can expect more heat this week. Also, I will talk about a cold front for late in the weekend on into your Columbus Day.
In this addition, I will begin to report data from The Burlington Weather Office instead of CVG. My weather station is on-line and fully opertional now. We can expect more heat this week. Also, I will talk about a cold front for late in the weekend on into your Columbus Day.
If the player does not work, then click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1203287705331368888&hl=en
My 7 Day Forecast:
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
More Rain Possible Tonight and the Tropics are Active
9/26/07 8:30pm
In this addition, we'll talk about today's rains, and chances for tonight as well. I'll also give you the latest on Tropical Storm Karen and Tropical Depression 13. I'll also show you what the models are saying for the 2nd week of October.
In this addition, we'll talk about today's rains, and chances for tonight as well. I'll also give you the latest on Tropical Storm Karen and Tropical Depression 13. I'll also show you what the models are saying for the 2nd week of October.
If the player doesn't work, then click on the link.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8018390615998435357&hl=en
My Updated 7 Day Forecast:
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Record Heat Followed by a Midweek Cold Front
09/23/07 9:30pm
Today was the first offical day of fall, but the weather feels like summer! In this addition of my video forecast, I'll be discussing more record heat, a mid week cold front, the tropics, and a sneak peak into the month of October.
Click on the play button below to view the video.
If it does not work on your computer, then click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7232888510625872909&hl=en
My Updated 7 Day Forecast:
Today was the first offical day of fall, but the weather feels like summer! In this addition of my video forecast, I'll be discussing more record heat, a mid week cold front, the tropics, and a sneak peak into the month of October.
Click on the play button below to view the video.
If it does not work on your computer, then click on the link below.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7232888510625872909&hl=en
My Updated 7 Day Forecast:
Thursday, September 20, 2007
More Heat then a Cold Front for Tuesday
09/20/07 9:15pm
In this addition, I will discuss Tuesday's cold front, the tropics, the on-going drought, and finally the 12Z GFS from last night /vs/ the 0Z GFS from today. This is in regards to the Oct 4-5th timeframe.
If the player does not work on your PC, then click on this link.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5298203356739107653&hl=en
As always.... my updated 7 Day Forecast:
In this addition, I will discuss Tuesday's cold front, the tropics, the on-going drought, and finally the 12Z GFS from last night /vs/ the 0Z GFS from today. This is in regards to the Oct 4-5th timeframe.
If the player does not work on your PC, then click on this link.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5298203356739107653&hl=en
As always.... my updated 7 Day Forecast:
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Warmer and Drier Pattern for this Week...
9/16/07 9:30pm
I'm back from vacation!
In this addition of my Video Forecast, I'll discuss our warm and dry pattern for this week. I'll also give you a deep drought analysis and a tropical discussion as well.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9131148783569625062&hl=en
Also, my updated 7 Day Forecast!
I'm back from vacation!
In this addition of my Video Forecast, I'll discuss our warm and dry pattern for this week. I'll also give you a deep drought analysis and a tropical discussion as well.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9131148783569625062&hl=en
Also, my updated 7 Day Forecast!
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Stormier Pattern to Develop
09/05/07 8pm
Check out my latest video forecast! In this addition, I will be talking about our weekend cold front, as well as a stronger cold front due in by midweek next week. Also, I will discuss the potential for tropical development off the SE Coast.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3416427053137055560&hl=en
NOTE: Video Forecasts and 7 Day Forecast updates, will resume after September 16th.
Check out my latest video forecast! In this addition, I will be talking about our weekend cold front, as well as a stronger cold front due in by midweek next week. Also, I will discuss the potential for tropical development off the SE Coast.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3416427053137055560&hl=en
NOTE: Video Forecasts and 7 Day Forecast updates, will resume after September 16th.
Monday, September 3, 2007
More Heat for this Week - Hurricane Felix
09/03/07 6:30pm
Happy Labor Day! In this addition of my video forecast, I will discuss this week's heat, as well as a weekend cold front. I will also talk about Hurricane Felix, and our on going drought as well.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1528633005226722869&hl=en
Here is my updated 7 Day!
Happy Labor Day! In this addition of my video forecast, I will discuss this week's heat, as well as a weekend cold front. I will also talk about Hurricane Felix, and our on going drought as well.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1528633005226722869&hl=en
Here is my updated 7 Day!
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Another Heat Record Broken - Could the Pattern be Changing Soon?
08/29/07 8pm
In this addition of my video forecast, we broke another historical heat record today for the most 90 degree days in any month at CVG! Also, scattered storms occurred in the region along with some severe wx in Michigan. Could our pattern be changing by mid month??? Click on the link to watch the video.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7096350578249971927&hl=en
Also, here is my updated 7 Day Forecast.
In this addition of my video forecast, we broke another historical heat record today for the most 90 degree days in any month at CVG! Also, scattered storms occurred in the region along with some severe wx in Michigan. Could our pattern be changing by mid month??? Click on the link to watch the video.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7096350578249971927&hl=en
Also, here is my updated 7 Day Forecast.
Sunday, August 26, 2007
The Heat Continues - The Drought Intensifies
08/26/07 9pm
In this addition of my video forecast, I will discuss the heat for this week. Also, Columbus, OH, experienced some severe weather yesterday. Our drought is intensifying as well. Click on the link below to watch the video. Enjoy!
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8802329732260136247&hl=en
Here is my updated 7 Day forecast:
NOTE: The USA Weather Network forum now has a new home. You will need to sign up again.
http://usaweather.ipbfree.com/
In this addition of my video forecast, I will discuss the heat for this week. Also, Columbus, OH, experienced some severe weather yesterday. Our drought is intensifying as well. Click on the link below to watch the video. Enjoy!
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8802329732260136247&hl=en
Here is my updated 7 Day forecast:
NOTE: The USA Weather Network forum now has a new home. You will need to sign up again.
http://usaweather.ipbfree.com/
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
More Record Heat
Here is my updated Video Forecast and 7 Day. This video, in my opinion, is my best yet. I hope everyone enjoys it!
In this edition, I talk about our record heat, a weak cold front for Sunday, flooding in Northern Ohio, and the quiet tropics.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7182992579677668252
In this edition, I talk about our record heat, a weak cold front for Sunday, flooding in Northern Ohio, and the quiet tropics.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7182992579677668252
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Erin's Leftovers to Impact the Region
8/19/07 9pm
Due to the positive feedback that I have received from my first ever Video Forecast, I have decided to do them full time now. Therefore, I have done another tonight. This forecast discusses Hurricane Dean, and also the leftovers of Erin, since it should be impacting our region during the next 48 hours.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2032814696814165470&hl=en
Also, here is my updated 7 Day as well:
Due to the positive feedback that I have received from my first ever Video Forecast, I have decided to do them full time now. Therefore, I have done another tonight. This forecast discusses Hurricane Dean, and also the leftovers of Erin, since it should be impacting our region during the next 48 hours.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2032814696814165470&hl=en
Also, here is my updated 7 Day as well:
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
First Ever Video Forecast!!!
8/15/07 11:30pm
This blog entry will be VERY short. I am trying something new, and I would like everyone's feedback on this.
I have a new addition to my forecast now. I have created a VIDEO FORECAST! Check it out, and go easy on the comments, since this is my first time.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2985261964645604210&hl=en
I would also like to give a special shout out at this time to Trevor! Without his assistance today, I would have never, and I mean never... would have been able to create this video! Thank you very much for your help!
Also, my updated 7 Day as well...
This blog entry will be VERY short. I am trying something new, and I would like everyone's feedback on this.
I have a new addition to my forecast now. I have created a VIDEO FORECAST! Check it out, and go easy on the comments, since this is my first time.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2985261964645604210&hl=en
I would also like to give a special shout out at this time to Trevor! Without his assistance today, I would have never, and I mean never... would have been able to create this video! Thank you very much for your help!
Also, my updated 7 Day as well...
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Dry Weather Continues - Could Dean Develop in the Tropics?
8/12/07 5pm
After a dry weekend, the dryness continues into next week. High pressure will remain in control. Temps. and humidity will not be as high this week, as we have experienced in the past 2 weeks. The Burlington Weather Office did record another 100 degree temp. today! This makes the 4th one this year of 2007. I topped out at 101.0 as of this blog entry. That should be the high for today.
On this afternoon's weather map, a cold front extends from Michigan SW to just North of Chicago, Iowa, and Nebraska. Thunderstorms pushed thru Michigan this morning. High winds, small hail, lightning, and very heavy rain occurred. Winds this morning gusted to 50 mph. Over us, high pressure continued to rule. The heat ridge has retrograded off to the West and will remain over the Central Plains this week. Check out my Surface Map below.
The 90s will continue this week, but the humidity will be lower then in the past week. Our next front looks to affect the region on Thursday, late in the day. The models are keeping most of the energy to our north, as has been the case for most of this year. The front looked stronger also a few days ago. But, the models are trending weaker with this system, so I have only included a 30% POP for Thurs. afternoon in my 7 Day. Below, is the 12Z GFS's take on the front valid at 102 Hours.
High pressure and somewhat cooler temps. will move in behind the front. The Euro brings us much cooler air for the end of the week, but the GFS has strayed away from that idea. I did take temps. below 90 for Sat. as the GFS MOS Guidance shows mid 80s, and I think with the front being weaker on Thurs. then earlier predicted, that cool push of air behind the front, should not be as cold as what the models are predicting.
The 12Z GFS brings in another weak front for Sat., but I am keeping the forecast dry at this time, due to model uncertainty and also due to the fact that it's so far out in time. Here is the model image valid at 138 Hours.
Here is my updated 7 Day Forecast:
Long Term Outlook (Aug 20th - 28th)
The long range period begins with another Great Lakes MCS Aug 20-21st. A trailing cold front looks to deliver us another shot at rainfall. Meanwhile, the models still show a tropical system affecting Southern TX or Mexico Aug 23-25th. I'll touch on this in greater detail below. For us, more high pressure and dry weather remains for the rest of the forecast period. The Drought Monitor Map, which will come out on Thurs., should paint a pretty grim picture for the region.
Could Dean form in the Tropics?
The models have been consistently showing that a tropical wave off of Africa will develop in a few days possibly becoming a Depression and then Dean! Here is an IR Sat. image of the Atlantic Basin and you can clearly see a tropical wave off the African Coast.
As you can see, the system has great circulation with it, and it should be heading into an environment which will be more favorable for development. However, note the lack of convection with this wave. I think that it will develop into a depression in the next 2 or 3 days, and then eventually become Dean.
The models are showing the system eventually tracking thru the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico by Aug 23-24th. It may even strike Southern TX or Mexico! Here is the 12Z GFS's depiction of it valid at 252 Hours.
The GFS has been all over the place with the track of this system. 4 or 5 days ago, it had the system tracking towards the East Coast, then deflecting it back out to sea. Then it had it hitting Florida. Now, the model takes it thru the Gulf and into S. Texas or Mexico as you can see from the above image. I'll continue to monitor this tropical wave, and it if becomes Dean or not.
After a dry weekend, the dryness continues into next week. High pressure will remain in control. Temps. and humidity will not be as high this week, as we have experienced in the past 2 weeks. The Burlington Weather Office did record another 100 degree temp. today! This makes the 4th one this year of 2007. I topped out at 101.0 as of this blog entry. That should be the high for today.
On this afternoon's weather map, a cold front extends from Michigan SW to just North of Chicago, Iowa, and Nebraska. Thunderstorms pushed thru Michigan this morning. High winds, small hail, lightning, and very heavy rain occurred. Winds this morning gusted to 50 mph. Over us, high pressure continued to rule. The heat ridge has retrograded off to the West and will remain over the Central Plains this week. Check out my Surface Map below.
The 90s will continue this week, but the humidity will be lower then in the past week. Our next front looks to affect the region on Thursday, late in the day. The models are keeping most of the energy to our north, as has been the case for most of this year. The front looked stronger also a few days ago. But, the models are trending weaker with this system, so I have only included a 30% POP for Thurs. afternoon in my 7 Day. Below, is the 12Z GFS's take on the front valid at 102 Hours.
High pressure and somewhat cooler temps. will move in behind the front. The Euro brings us much cooler air for the end of the week, but the GFS has strayed away from that idea. I did take temps. below 90 for Sat. as the GFS MOS Guidance shows mid 80s, and I think with the front being weaker on Thurs. then earlier predicted, that cool push of air behind the front, should not be as cold as what the models are predicting.
The 12Z GFS brings in another weak front for Sat., but I am keeping the forecast dry at this time, due to model uncertainty and also due to the fact that it's so far out in time. Here is the model image valid at 138 Hours.
Here is my updated 7 Day Forecast:
Long Term Outlook (Aug 20th - 28th)
The long range period begins with another Great Lakes MCS Aug 20-21st. A trailing cold front looks to deliver us another shot at rainfall. Meanwhile, the models still show a tropical system affecting Southern TX or Mexico Aug 23-25th. I'll touch on this in greater detail below. For us, more high pressure and dry weather remains for the rest of the forecast period. The Drought Monitor Map, which will come out on Thurs., should paint a pretty grim picture for the region.
Could Dean form in the Tropics?
The models have been consistently showing that a tropical wave off of Africa will develop in a few days possibly becoming a Depression and then Dean! Here is an IR Sat. image of the Atlantic Basin and you can clearly see a tropical wave off the African Coast.
As you can see, the system has great circulation with it, and it should be heading into an environment which will be more favorable for development. However, note the lack of convection with this wave. I think that it will develop into a depression in the next 2 or 3 days, and then eventually become Dean.
The models are showing the system eventually tracking thru the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico by Aug 23-24th. It may even strike Southern TX or Mexico! Here is the 12Z GFS's depiction of it valid at 252 Hours.
The GFS has been all over the place with the track of this system. 4 or 5 days ago, it had the system tracking towards the East Coast, then deflecting it back out to sea. Then it had it hitting Florida. Now, the model takes it thru the Gulf and into S. Texas or Mexico as you can see from the above image. I'll continue to monitor this tropical wave, and it if becomes Dean or not.
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
Isolated Storms this Evening and Tomorrow - The Heat Continues...
8/8/07 8:30pm
As of this blog entry, the Burlington Weather Office is reporting a T-storm with a temp. of 84.6 degrees. Precip total: 0.04". CVG today picked up 0.11" Below, you will see a GR Level 3 Radar image as of 8:20pm, when the first drops began to fall at the Weather Office.
As predicted, we have definitely have seen some dangerous heat across the region this week. That will continue for one more day. The 12Z GFS MOS Guidance has 101 for tomorrow. I am forecasting 100! Today, CVG hit 100 officially for the first time in 8 years! The last time we hit 100 was July 31st, 1999. We also broke a record high, which was at 99, set back in 1999. Below, is the public information statement, which was released by the NWS in Wilmington, OH.
... Record high of 100 degrees set at Cincinnati...
The temperature at the Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky International
Airport reached 100 degrees at 258 PM today. This broke the record
high for the date which was 99 set in 1999. This also Marks the first
time since 1999 that the Cincinnati Airport reached 100 degrees. It
is possible that the temperature will rise even higher later this
afternoon.
At the Burlington Weather Office, I recorded 102.4 yesterday and 104.8 today! I also expect tomorrow to be day 3 in a row for Burlington with 100+ degree temps! Tomorrow will be our last day for triple digit heat. The ridge of high pressure, which has been dominating our weather, will retrograde off to our West. In doing so, a stationary front, which has been producing heavy, flooding rains in Southern MI, Northern IN, and OH, will finally sag far enough Southwards by tomorrow afternoon and evening, that isolated T-storms will be possible across the region. The 12Z GFS keeps most of the moisture to our North. Thus, I have inserted 20% POPS for tomorrow. Here is the 12Z GFS model image valid at 18 hours.
Afterwards, we will briefly drop below the 95 degree mark. In fact, on Friday, we will struggle to even hit 90 degrees! The record at CVG for the most consective days of 90 degree temps. stands at 16 days. We are currently on Day 10 counting today. If Friday turns out to be a 90 degree day, then our record could be threatened! WOW... amazing stuff! Record heat and drought-like conditions! Being that you guys are blog readers, you heard it here! Way back in the Spring, I predicted a hot and dry summer. Besides July being cooler then avg (but below normal in rainfall), my summer seasonal forecast has been right on the money!
The weekend will continue to offer dry conditions, with temps. once again approaching the mid 90s by Sunday. The ridge of high pressure will re-build over the region for early next week. This will continue the hot temps. and dry conditions across the region.
Now, the 12Z GFS does try and bring a front thru on Monday, but notice in the below image, again, all of the moisture is to our North. Thus, I am leaving Monday dry at this time.
Below, you will see my updated 7 Day Forecast.
Long Range Outlook (Aug. 16th thru Aug. 24th)
The 12Z models call for more of the same. The ridge will continue to dominate and only slightly weaken from time to time, allowing for 20-30% coverage of storms, maybe once or twice a week. The 90s will most likely continue during the next 2 weeks as well. The drought will likely worsen and on tomorrow morning's Drought Monitor Map, we should see that be the case. I expect the D3 area to probably return to Southern KY, and the D2 area should expand in our area as well. The next DM Update on Aug. 16th should show my prediction quite nicely if it does not occur with this week's update. Check the USA Weather Forum after 9am tomorrow morning, and I will post the new map for Aug. 9th in our Drought of 2007 Section. The website is: http://www.createforum.com/usaweather
As of this blog entry, the Burlington Weather Office is reporting a T-storm with a temp. of 84.6 degrees. Precip total: 0.04". CVG today picked up 0.11" Below, you will see a GR Level 3 Radar image as of 8:20pm, when the first drops began to fall at the Weather Office.
As predicted, we have definitely have seen some dangerous heat across the region this week. That will continue for one more day. The 12Z GFS MOS Guidance has 101 for tomorrow. I am forecasting 100! Today, CVG hit 100 officially for the first time in 8 years! The last time we hit 100 was July 31st, 1999. We also broke a record high, which was at 99, set back in 1999. Below, is the public information statement, which was released by the NWS in Wilmington, OH.
... Record high of 100 degrees set at Cincinnati...
The temperature at the Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky International
Airport reached 100 degrees at 258 PM today. This broke the record
high for the date which was 99 set in 1999. This also Marks the first
time since 1999 that the Cincinnati Airport reached 100 degrees. It
is possible that the temperature will rise even higher later this
afternoon.
At the Burlington Weather Office, I recorded 102.4 yesterday and 104.8 today! I also expect tomorrow to be day 3 in a row for Burlington with 100+ degree temps! Tomorrow will be our last day for triple digit heat. The ridge of high pressure, which has been dominating our weather, will retrograde off to our West. In doing so, a stationary front, which has been producing heavy, flooding rains in Southern MI, Northern IN, and OH, will finally sag far enough Southwards by tomorrow afternoon and evening, that isolated T-storms will be possible across the region. The 12Z GFS keeps most of the moisture to our North. Thus, I have inserted 20% POPS for tomorrow. Here is the 12Z GFS model image valid at 18 hours.
Afterwards, we will briefly drop below the 95 degree mark. In fact, on Friday, we will struggle to even hit 90 degrees! The record at CVG for the most consective days of 90 degree temps. stands at 16 days. We are currently on Day 10 counting today. If Friday turns out to be a 90 degree day, then our record could be threatened! WOW... amazing stuff! Record heat and drought-like conditions! Being that you guys are blog readers, you heard it here! Way back in the Spring, I predicted a hot and dry summer. Besides July being cooler then avg (but below normal in rainfall), my summer seasonal forecast has been right on the money!
The weekend will continue to offer dry conditions, with temps. once again approaching the mid 90s by Sunday. The ridge of high pressure will re-build over the region for early next week. This will continue the hot temps. and dry conditions across the region.
Now, the 12Z GFS does try and bring a front thru on Monday, but notice in the below image, again, all of the moisture is to our North. Thus, I am leaving Monday dry at this time.
Below, you will see my updated 7 Day Forecast.
Long Range Outlook (Aug. 16th thru Aug. 24th)
The 12Z models call for more of the same. The ridge will continue to dominate and only slightly weaken from time to time, allowing for 20-30% coverage of storms, maybe once or twice a week. The 90s will most likely continue during the next 2 weeks as well. The drought will likely worsen and on tomorrow morning's Drought Monitor Map, we should see that be the case. I expect the D3 area to probably return to Southern KY, and the D2 area should expand in our area as well. The next DM Update on Aug. 16th should show my prediction quite nicely if it does not occur with this week's update. Check the USA Weather Forum after 9am tomorrow morning, and I will post the new map for Aug. 9th in our Drought of 2007 Section. The website is: http://www.createforum.com/usaweather
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