Model Discussion for 2/26/07 7pm

Good evening folks! This is my first blog entry on my brand new Model Discussion Blog. I hope everyone who reads this will learn something and have fun reading it as much as I have posting it. This blog will target the Cincinnati, OH, Tri-state area.

Please check out my Buddy Twister's Website too! It's well written and very informative. Click here to access the site. www.geocities.com/cincyforecast
Today's models have shown some interesting changes. But before we get to that, I'd like to talk about our upcoming weather system due in for this Thursday. The models are still showing a heavy rain event for the region with over an inch possible. Also, the severe weather threat is increasing as well. GFS MOS data pushes our high temp. to around 60 degrees! IF that were to occur, then yes, severe weather is a possibilty. I am currently holding off at this time, and I'll be posting another blog entry in the next day or two if conditions warrent.

After that system moves out, we may see some light snow on Fri. as the system exits. At this point, no accumulation is expected. A dry, but cool weekend is on tap with temps. holding in the 30s for highs.

As we head into next week, the GFS is showing a soaker by mid-week, maybe 1-3" of rain, so I'll have more to come on that system. The GFS likes to over-develop systems.

Long Term:

The Euro model is showing a potential arctic outbreak once again March 3-10. The GFS Ensemble means are not showing this. They keep the trough out West instead of developing it over the Eastern US. Stay tuned here, because if the Euro is right, winter will not be over yet!