A Dry Week Ahead - No Widespread Rains Until June 20th

06/11/07 6am

The Medium Range models (MR), are not showing any widespread rains until June 20th. Both the 12Z model runs from yesterday and the 0Z model runs from overnight are in beautiful agreement on our current weather pattern. This will definitely be a short blog entry today, as there is nothing really to talk about.

Here is our current set up:

Let me first of all show you a model image from the 0Z Euro model run. This image is valid at 24 hours, which would be for today.



There is a trough over the Pacific NW, a ridge over most of the Central and Eastern US, followed by another trough over New England, which is depicted by that big low over the Western Atlantic Ocean. With this type of weather pattern in place, we will remain warm and dry. What's going on is, since that big low off of the East Coast is just sitting there, it is blocking any weather systems from moving Eastward across the country. When weather systems move into the Pacific NW, they can not break that huge ridge of high pressure down, because the New England trough is blocking everything.

For today, we'll start the day with some clouds, but they will be moving off to the SE shortly, leaving us with a sunny afternoon. Here is the current sat. image as of 6am.



Highs today should be in the mid 80s. The humidity should also be fairly low as well. As we progress through the rest of the week, the temps. will slowly moderate as well as the humidity. For Tues., highs again should be in the mid 80s, and then the upper 80s by Wed.

For Thurs. and Fri., the models are trying so hard to bring in a little bit of moisture. The 0Z GFS shows the New England trough trying to retrograde to the West undercutting the ridge that continues to dominate us. The chance of any rainfall though is so low at this time, that I am leaving the forecast dry. For Cincinnati, the chance of precip. for Thurs and Fri. afternoon is only at 10-15%. Even if a shower or T-storm does develop, the Eastern parts of the OH Valley would stand the best chance at 30%. Highs for Thus. and Fri. should be in the upper 80s to near 90 the further NW you go away from Cincinnati, as the Eastern parts of the OH Valley, may see more clouds then the Western areas due to what I just mentioned above. Highs in the East could be held in check in the low to mid 80s if the above model solution occurs.

By this weekend, high pressure again dominates as highs for everyone should be close to 90, and the humidity should make it feel a little bit sticky outside, but not as bad as it was this past Friday (06/08) when the Airport (CVG) had a low of 78 degrees! In fact, the low temps. this week will start out near 60 for Cincinnati, warming into the mid and upper 60s as the week progresses. So, although we will see some humidity this week, it won't be as bad as it could be for mid June.

Long Term Outlook (June 18th - 27th)

As I noted in the title of this blog entry, the next real threat of rain looks to be a cold front that will drop down from the NW and affect the region by June 20th. Below is the 0Z GFS model run valid at 192 hours.



After that, the ridge re-builds and we fall back into a dry pattern once again. Another front is possible by the end of the long range period. The drought will definitely continue to intensify based on the MR models and from what I have talked about in this blog entry. If you recall my prediction from my last blog entry where I predicted the drought could be classified as Severe (D2 status on the US Drought Monitor map) by mid to late July, well folks, if this weather pattern continues, then my prediction will be correct. Call your bookies and place your bets, as I still see no change in sight in regards to this weather pattern.