3/29/07 6:40pm
It turned out to be a beautiful day today! The high officially at CVG was 70 today! Wow, the models blew that one by 5 degrees or more! Just as how clouds can blow a temp. forecast, so can the sun! A few hours of afternoon sun pushed our temps from 60 around noon to 70 around 5pm. Amazing!
I expect one more beautiful day tomorrow too! Normal high for this time of year is now up to 60! The GFS Mos data says 69. I think that it's too cool and I believe that we'll get into the lower 70s tomorrow. I am going with 71 or 72 degrees respectively for tomorrow's high.
The 12Z GFS Run from this afternoon, has now sped up the weekend system for Sat. morning now. Sat. is looking llike an all day type of rain at this point, all out ahead of a cold front, which will slowly clear the area by Sun. I think Sat. night the dry slot moves in and we should be dry. But, by Sun. the cold front is closing in, and another shot at showers and some isolated T-storms are possible. The action should clear out by Sun. evening. Highs for this weekend, look to be a shade too warm as indicated by the GFS. It shows 68 and 69 a piece. I'm going with 66 for Sat. under all the clouds and rain and 67 for Sun. If we get any sun though then we'll crack 70. We'll see.
Opening Day Outlook:
For those of you attending the Reds Opening Day on Monday, April 2nd, we should see wall-to-wall sunshine, and a nice Southerly breeze, especially in the afternoon. Highs should make it into the lower 70s under sunny skies! The GFS is going with a whopping 74! I actually agree! I was thinking 68 yesterday, then 72 this morning. But as the GFS continues to trend warmer for Mon, so is my forecast.
Our next weather maker moves in for Tues. and Wed. bringing with it a chance of showers and storms. Highs will be in the lower 70s on Tues, dropping into the 60s by Wed . The mild pattern breaks down beginning on Thurs. of next week. Highs then are forecasted to be 52 by the GFS, and I'll agree with that, at this time.
Long Term Outlook: Apr 6th - 14th
There's not too much change in the extended outlook from what I wrote about in my last blog entry. The chilly weather pattern and also stormy weather pattern looks to continue. I think the entire month will avg. out to be below normal in temps. and above normal in rainfall. The Pacific Ocean is lined up with a parade of storms out there.
At the same time, if a blocking high develops over SE Canada and Greenland, which the models are beginning to hoan in on, then we can expect very cold air during the extended outlook period. If we see that blocking develop, then a cold high out of Canada will drop down, and possibly produce record cold for some areas, like the Great Lakes and New England. We'll have to wait and see as the GFS does have a cold bias. But, at any rate, look for periodic heavy rain makers, not much, if any, severe weather, and chilly days with highs in the 40s and 50s looking like a decent bet at this point with morning lows in the 30s POSSIBLY dipping into the 20s as well.
Stay tuned to my blog for further details. Also, please sign up at the USA Weather Forum if you have not done so. If you have, then POST some Messages! For those that do post, I thank you!!! Also, if you register, you can leave comments on this blog entry and any other entries that I have made. I read all comments and respond to everyone of them! You must click on the comment link which is located at the end of each blog entry, and then register with this blogger site, and you're ready to leave comments! Again, it's all free!
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Thursday, March 29, 2007
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Severe Weather Threat for March 31st
3/27/07 8:15pm
I'm writing this blog entry to talk about Severe Wx chances for the early weekend storm system. I say that because of the 18Z Nam and 12Z GFS model runs from today.
First, the SPC Says:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
Now, based on that threat map, we stand a slight chance of seeing Severe T-storms. I'm not all that impressed right now with the severe wx aspects.
The model runs today say, nope! Why? Timing! They bring the front thru on Sat. night/early Sun. morning. I think a slight chance of T-storms tomorrow evening, maybe 20-30% coverage, per the GFS. NAM also shows a bit of mositure too. To me, Thurs. and Fri. will be dry. Then by Sat. afternoon, showers and storms should move into the region with a strong cold front. 50-70% appears to be a good bet at this point. We'll fine tune the rain amount forecast later on, as the event draws nearer.
I'll be making edits on this post throughout the coming days as well. Stay tuned to this blog, and the USA WeatherNetwork for further updates!
I'm writing this blog entry to talk about Severe Wx chances for the early weekend storm system. I say that because of the 18Z Nam and 12Z GFS model runs from today.
First, the SPC Says:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
Now, based on that threat map, we stand a slight chance of seeing Severe T-storms. I'm not all that impressed right now with the severe wx aspects.
The model runs today say, nope! Why? Timing! They bring the front thru on Sat. night/early Sun. morning. I think a slight chance of T-storms tomorrow evening, maybe 20-30% coverage, per the GFS. NAM also shows a bit of mositure too. To me, Thurs. and Fri. will be dry. Then by Sat. afternoon, showers and storms should move into the region with a strong cold front. 50-70% appears to be a good bet at this point. We'll fine tune the rain amount forecast later on, as the event draws nearer.
I'll be making edits on this post throughout the coming days as well. Stay tuned to this blog, and the USA WeatherNetwork for further updates!
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Daily Chances at Storms this Week - Cooler by the Weekend
3/25/07 1:50pm - Edited 7pm - Edit #2 - 3/26/07 5:55pm
It's been a while since I have updated the blog here, but I'm currently out of town doing this from a remote location. I had to find the model links and everything again, which I have done. What a beautiful weekend that we have in progress! We reached a high in the upper 70s yesterday, followed by a high close to 80 today and near 82 tomorrow! I even managed to get out on the water yesterday to do some crappie fishing. My Brother and I had a blast! We caught over 125 fish and cleaned 73! It was a great day to be outside, and it still is today.
The models are pretty much showing us a daily chance of showers and T-storms for the majority of the upcoming work week. Not everyone will see rain everyday, but when a shower or a storm moves over you, you'll know it's there, as most storms should remain below severe limits until we get to the end of the week. We'll have a good chance at seeing some strong storms on Mon as well, but to me, the best chance of severe weather will be when the main cold front finally pushes across our region, which again, will be at week's end.
That same ridge of high pressure that I have been talking about is still there off of the SE Coast. It is now going to strengthen even more this week to pretty much keep the cold front at bay over the Plain States. Also, a slow moving Upper Level Low will be bringing heavy flooding rains to TX. Currently, some areas in the Hill Country could get up to 5" of rain by midnight!
For us, little pieces of energy will continue to head our way out ahead of the aforementioned storm system. That's what'll provide us with our daily chances at storms. Also, we'll begin the week extremely mild and after the main cold front pushes thru, we'll see some much cooler air move in by next weekend. Temp. wise, we'll see highs around 80 today, probably around 82 or so for tomorrow, then slowly, we'll drop through the 70s and eventually, highs will tumble back down to normal levels by next Sat., with a current high of 63 expected.
Long Range: (April 1-10th)
Below normal temps. look to be the rule here, as we go through a pattern change again. A trough should reside over the Central and Eastern US during this period. We'll see a NW flow aloft which is horrible for severe weather. The slow start for the OH Valley here looks to continue outside of our end of the week chance. Today's 6Z GFS model run shows a nice heavy rain event still for Apr 5th-6th.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US
So, as always, I'll continue to monitor.
EDIT:
The record high for 3/26 is 82 set back in 1907. I think we'll beat that record as well. GFS MOS says: 78 - But lately, as we all know, it has been underforecasting the warmth.
I'm going with 84 degrees.
EDIT #2:
Well, I busted folks, plain and simple. CVG only topped out at 78 to my knowledge, 4 degrees shy of a record and 6 degrees cooler then my forecasted high of 84. What went wrong? Two words: Cloud cover If we would have received the sunshine that we did yesterday, then yes, we would have hit my high temp.
My KUDO today goes out to Nick and his "Baby" the GFS! The GFS nailed it perfectly!
It's been a while since I have updated the blog here, but I'm currently out of town doing this from a remote location. I had to find the model links and everything again, which I have done. What a beautiful weekend that we have in progress! We reached a high in the upper 70s yesterday, followed by a high close to 80 today and near 82 tomorrow! I even managed to get out on the water yesterday to do some crappie fishing. My Brother and I had a blast! We caught over 125 fish and cleaned 73! It was a great day to be outside, and it still is today.
The models are pretty much showing us a daily chance of showers and T-storms for the majority of the upcoming work week. Not everyone will see rain everyday, but when a shower or a storm moves over you, you'll know it's there, as most storms should remain below severe limits until we get to the end of the week. We'll have a good chance at seeing some strong storms on Mon as well, but to me, the best chance of severe weather will be when the main cold front finally pushes across our region, which again, will be at week's end.
That same ridge of high pressure that I have been talking about is still there off of the SE Coast. It is now going to strengthen even more this week to pretty much keep the cold front at bay over the Plain States. Also, a slow moving Upper Level Low will be bringing heavy flooding rains to TX. Currently, some areas in the Hill Country could get up to 5" of rain by midnight!
For us, little pieces of energy will continue to head our way out ahead of the aforementioned storm system. That's what'll provide us with our daily chances at storms. Also, we'll begin the week extremely mild and after the main cold front pushes thru, we'll see some much cooler air move in by next weekend. Temp. wise, we'll see highs around 80 today, probably around 82 or so for tomorrow, then slowly, we'll drop through the 70s and eventually, highs will tumble back down to normal levels by next Sat., with a current high of 63 expected.
Long Range: (April 1-10th)
Below normal temps. look to be the rule here, as we go through a pattern change again. A trough should reside over the Central and Eastern US during this period. We'll see a NW flow aloft which is horrible for severe weather. The slow start for the OH Valley here looks to continue outside of our end of the week chance. Today's 6Z GFS model run shows a nice heavy rain event still for Apr 5th-6th.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US
So, as always, I'll continue to monitor.
EDIT:
The record high for 3/26 is 82 set back in 1907. I think we'll beat that record as well. GFS MOS says: 78 - But lately, as we all know, it has been underforecasting the warmth.
I'm going with 84 degrees.
EDIT #2:
Well, I busted folks, plain and simple. CVG only topped out at 78 to my knowledge, 4 degrees shy of a record and 6 degrees cooler then my forecasted high of 84. What went wrong? Two words: Cloud cover If we would have received the sunshine that we did yesterday, then yes, we would have hit my high temp.
My KUDO today goes out to Nick and his "Baby" the GFS! The GFS nailed it perfectly!
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Warmer Weather Moving In - Also Stormy From Time to Time
3/20/07 7:40pm
Happy Spring Everyone!!! Today is the first day of Spring. Well, not today, but it does officially begin this evening. As such, Mother Nature is right on cue with warmer temps. in our future and also stormy conditions at times as well.
Before we get to that, I'd like to let everyone know that I attended a Storm Spotter Training course last night. It was sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Wilmington, OH. I learned quite a bit of useful information too! We talked about the life cycles of tornadoes and T-storms, how to detect them on radar, what to look for on the ground, and also some valuable safety tips. I'll be reporting severe weather to the NWS whenever it occurs in the Tri-State region, especially when it moves through the Weather Office here in Burlington. KUDOS again to Trevor Cole (a.k.a. Twister), who invited me to attend the event. It was great learning about everything with him and his Dad!
If you would like to become a storm spotter too, click on the link below for more information. Fortunately, I got in just in time, as time is running out for this year's training. But, there's always next year!
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/iln/training.htm
Today's models are still showing a warm front moving through the region late tonight/early tomorrow morning. So, we should see some rainfall across the region in the form of showers during this time. I can not rule out an isolated T-storm either, but instability does not look all that great right now according to the models. The strong ridge of high pressure, which is still located off of the SE Coast, keeps slowing down systems as they try and pass through our area. What the ridge will do, though is put us under a strong SW flow, which will in turn keep us above normal in the temp. dept. though the next 10 days at least.
After the warm front, we'll be in the warm sector Wed. night and Thurs., so for the most part, we should remain dry, but by Thurs. afternoon, as the cold front begins to slowly move towards the region, showers will again be on the increase. The NAM is much faster than the GFS today, so I will side with the GFS for this forecast package, especially since it is in line more with the Euro model. If the GFS and Euro are in agreement, then my confidence as a forecaster grows! The rain should continue for Thurs. night as well. Behind the front, we'll see a one day cool shot of air, which will be on Friday. Some more showers are possible as well here. Remember, due to the strength of the SE Ridge, systems will be slow to move out of the area.
As we head into the weekend, I can not rule out a lingering chance at some rain, especially Sat. morning, but by Sunday, we should be under sunny skies again as well with temps. rebounding to well above normal levels. As we begin yet another workweek, a new cold front should begin to affect the region with a chance of showers and T-storms yet again both Mon. and Tues.
At this point, nothing looks to be severe as far as T-storms go, however, we can never rule out an isolated storm. But, the chances at anything being widespread appear doubtful at this time. Checking the latest from the SPC, they show all of the severe weather to our West. Why do you ask? Because of the SE Ridge, slowing these fronts down, and weakening them as they try and break the ridge down. I do not see the ridge breaking down for again, the next 10 days at least. So, as these systems move into the OH Valley, they lose a lot of their energy. If you take a look at the current SPC Outlooks, you'll see what I mean. Look at the Day 2 Outlook (For Thurs.) and also the 4-8 Day Outlook, which shows the Western half of Texas potentially seeing a lot of action.
http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook
As far as temps. go through the period, after the warm front passes through in the morning, temps. will soar into the mid to upper 60s. If we see enough sunshine, then some areas may even break the 70 degree mark! We'll see winds begin to pick up out of the SE then the SW by afternoon after the warm front moves through. Wind gusts to 30mph are possible. For Thurs., winds could gust to 35mph then as highs make it into the lower 70's. The GFS MOS has a high of 71 here, and I actually think that looks good, especially if the slower GFS model solution verifies.
For Fri., we'll be behind the front as winds switch back around to the W and NW. Temps. will only make it into the mid to upper 50s then. The GFS I think is too warm under all of the clouds and showers that will be around. It has a high of 63 then, which I think is incorrect. 58 looks good in my opinion at this point.
By the weekend, I think we'll be back into the mid 60s for Sat, and cracking 70 again by Sun. Mon and Tues. of next week also appear to be mild with temps. in the 60's both days as well.
Long Range: (March 28 - Apr 5th)
The long range period here shows a dry Wed. and some more showers for Thurs. with another front moving through the area. After that, the GFS shows a dry period of weather with mild temps. Mar 30th - Apr. 2nd as the majority of the storms look to target the Great Lakes along a stationary front. In fact, it looks like a VERY wet period for the Great Lakes during most of the long range period. For us, April 3-5th, a slow moving front will begin to finally make a move towards our area. A heavy rain event appears possible at this point along with some severe weather, if the 12Z GFS run were to verify. I'll continue to monitor as this weather event, is a long ways off. Also, the system could easily weaken as it tries to break down the SE Ridge, or even slow down further. Temps. overall look to remain nice and mild through the period.
Happy Spring Everyone!!! Today is the first day of Spring. Well, not today, but it does officially begin this evening. As such, Mother Nature is right on cue with warmer temps. in our future and also stormy conditions at times as well.
Before we get to that, I'd like to let everyone know that I attended a Storm Spotter Training course last night. It was sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Wilmington, OH. I learned quite a bit of useful information too! We talked about the life cycles of tornadoes and T-storms, how to detect them on radar, what to look for on the ground, and also some valuable safety tips. I'll be reporting severe weather to the NWS whenever it occurs in the Tri-State region, especially when it moves through the Weather Office here in Burlington. KUDOS again to Trevor Cole (a.k.a. Twister), who invited me to attend the event. It was great learning about everything with him and his Dad!
If you would like to become a storm spotter too, click on the link below for more information. Fortunately, I got in just in time, as time is running out for this year's training. But, there's always next year!
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/iln/training.htm
Today's models are still showing a warm front moving through the region late tonight/early tomorrow morning. So, we should see some rainfall across the region in the form of showers during this time. I can not rule out an isolated T-storm either, but instability does not look all that great right now according to the models. The strong ridge of high pressure, which is still located off of the SE Coast, keeps slowing down systems as they try and pass through our area. What the ridge will do, though is put us under a strong SW flow, which will in turn keep us above normal in the temp. dept. though the next 10 days at least.
After the warm front, we'll be in the warm sector Wed. night and Thurs., so for the most part, we should remain dry, but by Thurs. afternoon, as the cold front begins to slowly move towards the region, showers will again be on the increase. The NAM is much faster than the GFS today, so I will side with the GFS for this forecast package, especially since it is in line more with the Euro model. If the GFS and Euro are in agreement, then my confidence as a forecaster grows! The rain should continue for Thurs. night as well. Behind the front, we'll see a one day cool shot of air, which will be on Friday. Some more showers are possible as well here. Remember, due to the strength of the SE Ridge, systems will be slow to move out of the area.
As we head into the weekend, I can not rule out a lingering chance at some rain, especially Sat. morning, but by Sunday, we should be under sunny skies again as well with temps. rebounding to well above normal levels. As we begin yet another workweek, a new cold front should begin to affect the region with a chance of showers and T-storms yet again both Mon. and Tues.
At this point, nothing looks to be severe as far as T-storms go, however, we can never rule out an isolated storm. But, the chances at anything being widespread appear doubtful at this time. Checking the latest from the SPC, they show all of the severe weather to our West. Why do you ask? Because of the SE Ridge, slowing these fronts down, and weakening them as they try and break the ridge down. I do not see the ridge breaking down for again, the next 10 days at least. So, as these systems move into the OH Valley, they lose a lot of their energy. If you take a look at the current SPC Outlooks, you'll see what I mean. Look at the Day 2 Outlook (For Thurs.) and also the 4-8 Day Outlook, which shows the Western half of Texas potentially seeing a lot of action.
http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook
As far as temps. go through the period, after the warm front passes through in the morning, temps. will soar into the mid to upper 60s. If we see enough sunshine, then some areas may even break the 70 degree mark! We'll see winds begin to pick up out of the SE then the SW by afternoon after the warm front moves through. Wind gusts to 30mph are possible. For Thurs., winds could gust to 35mph then as highs make it into the lower 70's. The GFS MOS has a high of 71 here, and I actually think that looks good, especially if the slower GFS model solution verifies.
For Fri., we'll be behind the front as winds switch back around to the W and NW. Temps. will only make it into the mid to upper 50s then. The GFS I think is too warm under all of the clouds and showers that will be around. It has a high of 63 then, which I think is incorrect. 58 looks good in my opinion at this point.
By the weekend, I think we'll be back into the mid 60s for Sat, and cracking 70 again by Sun. Mon and Tues. of next week also appear to be mild with temps. in the 60's both days as well.
Long Range: (March 28 - Apr 5th)
The long range period here shows a dry Wed. and some more showers for Thurs. with another front moving through the area. After that, the GFS shows a dry period of weather with mild temps. Mar 30th - Apr. 2nd as the majority of the storms look to target the Great Lakes along a stationary front. In fact, it looks like a VERY wet period for the Great Lakes during most of the long range period. For us, April 3-5th, a slow moving front will begin to finally make a move towards our area. A heavy rain event appears possible at this point along with some severe weather, if the 12Z GFS run were to verify. I'll continue to monitor as this weather event, is a long ways off. Also, the system could easily weaken as it tries to break down the SE Ridge, or even slow down further. Temps. overall look to remain nice and mild through the period.
Saturday, March 17, 2007
A Slow Moderating Trend for the Upcoming Week
3/17/07 3:30pm
Happy St. Patty's Day Everyone!!!
Before I begin today's Model Discussion, I'd like to give another one of my friend's a plug here. An intelligent man by the name of Nick Nonno, from Blanchester, OH, is now doing weather video forecasts! Please check this out! He does an excellent job with model discussions, using a cool backdrop, sound effects, and radar graphics. He usually updates it daily. To view his video, click on this link below, and be sure to add it to your list of favorites: http://youtube.com/profile?user=NicksWxCast
Now, on to the weather...
Today's model runs are still showing our next storm system moving into the region late Sun. night and continuing into Mon. night. At the moment, a wintry mix at the onset of precip. is still possible, but I think areas North of I-275 still stand the best chance at seeing this. Again, I do not anticipate any travel problems at this time. I'll continue to monitor. On Monday, it'll be all rain for everyone and the rains should really get going in the afternoon. I think .25-.50" of rain is possible with this system. Temps. on Sunday still look to remain in the 40s with temps. rising into the lower 50s on Monday.
High pressure will briefly build in for Tues, as the front will stall to our South. Highs on Tues. will be similar to Monday. On Wed., the front will lift North as a warm front in response to a trough moving in from the West and a ridge developing over the SE Coast. As the warm front lifts Northward thru the region, temps. will continue to moderate, and warm close to 60 degrees. Also, a chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible Wed. afternoon as well.
On Thurs. and Fri., we will be in the warm sector as the warm front is to our North and a cold front is situated from near Chicago SW to North of St. Louis SW to Dallas. Currently, the models are not showing any focusing mechanism to get any storms going, so as of this post, I am keeping Thurs. and Fri. dry. Temps. on Thurs. should reach the mid 60s and close to 70 by Fri.
Long Term Outlook:
Fri. night and Sat., the cold front should be affecting the region with showers and T-storms. Currently, next Sun. appears to be dry. After that, March 27-28th, the models are showing a strong storm system moving in with big time rains possible here, especially on the 28th. We will also need to keep an eye on the threat for Severe T-storms as well. Another front drops down from Canada March 31-Apr 1st with a chilly shot of air to begin the new month. As I have been saying for a while now, a couple of severe weather threats look possible during the last week of March.
Continue to monitor this blog, the USA Weather Forum, Anthony's Audio Forecasts, Twister's Cincy Forecast website, and now Nick's Video Forecasts for all of the latest weather information!
Happy St. Patty's Day Everyone!!!
Before I begin today's Model Discussion, I'd like to give another one of my friend's a plug here. An intelligent man by the name of Nick Nonno, from Blanchester, OH, is now doing weather video forecasts! Please check this out! He does an excellent job with model discussions, using a cool backdrop, sound effects, and radar graphics. He usually updates it daily. To view his video, click on this link below, and be sure to add it to your list of favorites: http://youtube.com/profile?user=NicksWxCast
Now, on to the weather...
Today's model runs are still showing our next storm system moving into the region late Sun. night and continuing into Mon. night. At the moment, a wintry mix at the onset of precip. is still possible, but I think areas North of I-275 still stand the best chance at seeing this. Again, I do not anticipate any travel problems at this time. I'll continue to monitor. On Monday, it'll be all rain for everyone and the rains should really get going in the afternoon. I think .25-.50" of rain is possible with this system. Temps. on Sunday still look to remain in the 40s with temps. rising into the lower 50s on Monday.
High pressure will briefly build in for Tues, as the front will stall to our South. Highs on Tues. will be similar to Monday. On Wed., the front will lift North as a warm front in response to a trough moving in from the West and a ridge developing over the SE Coast. As the warm front lifts Northward thru the region, temps. will continue to moderate, and warm close to 60 degrees. Also, a chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible Wed. afternoon as well.
On Thurs. and Fri., we will be in the warm sector as the warm front is to our North and a cold front is situated from near Chicago SW to North of St. Louis SW to Dallas. Currently, the models are not showing any focusing mechanism to get any storms going, so as of this post, I am keeping Thurs. and Fri. dry. Temps. on Thurs. should reach the mid 60s and close to 70 by Fri.
Long Term Outlook:
Fri. night and Sat., the cold front should be affecting the region with showers and T-storms. Currently, next Sun. appears to be dry. After that, March 27-28th, the models are showing a strong storm system moving in with big time rains possible here, especially on the 28th. We will also need to keep an eye on the threat for Severe T-storms as well. Another front drops down from Canada March 31-Apr 1st with a chilly shot of air to begin the new month. As I have been saying for a while now, a couple of severe weather threats look possible during the last week of March.
Continue to monitor this blog, the USA Weather Forum, Anthony's Audio Forecasts, Twister's Cincy Forecast website, and now Nick's Video Forecasts for all of the latest weather information!
Thursday, March 15, 2007
A Cold Weekend in Store then Turning Stormy
3/15/07 11:40am
Well, as predicted, we did not see any severe weather in the Tri-State. As predicted, severe weather was reported in Northern OH, as a couple of tornadoes did occur last night up that way. This morning, those same areas were receiving wintry weather!!! In fact, winter weather advisories and ice storm warnings were in effect! For us, our temp. also dropped dramatically. At 5am CVG was 61, then at 7am, we had rain and a temp. of 39! WOW! What a drop! The current temp as of 12 noon is 37 degrees. For the rest of today, we can expect some more rain, with the heaviest rains remaining to our North. The rain will begin to taper off this afternoon.
Current radar image:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=ILN&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
As of this post, the bulk of the rain has moved out of the Northern parts of the Tri-State and is now pretty much situated along and to the SE of I-71. The trend will continue for the rain to taper off, and by this afternoon, it should be over with. I think we'll have a dry rush hour as well.
As we hit Friday, it'll be a chilly day with highs remaining in the 40s, and that trend will continue on into the weekend as well. Our next storm system will arrive Sun. night and last on into the day on Monday. At this point, it looks to be all rain. However, if the precip. moves in fast enough, it could start out as a little bit of wintry precip. but at this point, it does not look to be a big deal at all. I'll continue to monitor that for you.
For the rest of next week, I think we'll see temps. slowly rebound into the 60s by Wed. as yet another storm system moves into the region with some T-storms possible late Wed. and possibly lasting into Thurs. as well. It's a long ways off, so I'll continue to watch the models in regards to the timing there and strength of the system.
GFS MOS Temps for CVG:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/KY.MRF.htm
I think for temps., I agree with the forecasted temps. for Fri - Sun. as you can see it shows 46 all 3 days. Also, Mon. looks decent at 54 as well. However for Tues., I think we'll be closer to 60 and for Wed., 59 looks to be too cold. I'm going with 65 for a high at this time.
Long Range:
As I have stated in previous blog entries, the end of March does look to be stormy. The last week in particular. This morning, the 0Z run of the GFS showed a big cut off low affecting the OH Valley bringing rounds of rain to the area after March 25th and lasting thru the end of the month. It also showed the 540 line (rain/snow line) being pretty far to the South at times, which also suggests some wintry precip as well. Taking a look at the newest run, 6Z, it still shows a stormy period, however, it is less aggressive with the colder air and keeps everything rain with the 540 line way up in Northern Lower Michigan. At this time, I am not going to bite on to the wintry solution of the 0Z GFS, nor am I going to bite on to the cut off low either. Today, was the first time that I have seen the cut-off low scenerio in any model run, so I'd like to see how the models continue to handle the last week of March as we get closer to that timeframe. What I can say with confidence is that the remainder of March does look to be stormy with above normal precip. looking to be a good bet for the Eastern US, and whether the cold air will be able to get this far South remains in question.
As always, stay with your inboxes, this blog, and the USA Weather Forum for further updates!
Well, as predicted, we did not see any severe weather in the Tri-State. As predicted, severe weather was reported in Northern OH, as a couple of tornadoes did occur last night up that way. This morning, those same areas were receiving wintry weather!!! In fact, winter weather advisories and ice storm warnings were in effect! For us, our temp. also dropped dramatically. At 5am CVG was 61, then at 7am, we had rain and a temp. of 39! WOW! What a drop! The current temp as of 12 noon is 37 degrees. For the rest of today, we can expect some more rain, with the heaviest rains remaining to our North. The rain will begin to taper off this afternoon.
Current radar image:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=ILN&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
As of this post, the bulk of the rain has moved out of the Northern parts of the Tri-State and is now pretty much situated along and to the SE of I-71. The trend will continue for the rain to taper off, and by this afternoon, it should be over with. I think we'll have a dry rush hour as well.
As we hit Friday, it'll be a chilly day with highs remaining in the 40s, and that trend will continue on into the weekend as well. Our next storm system will arrive Sun. night and last on into the day on Monday. At this point, it looks to be all rain. However, if the precip. moves in fast enough, it could start out as a little bit of wintry precip. but at this point, it does not look to be a big deal at all. I'll continue to monitor that for you.
For the rest of next week, I think we'll see temps. slowly rebound into the 60s by Wed. as yet another storm system moves into the region with some T-storms possible late Wed. and possibly lasting into Thurs. as well. It's a long ways off, so I'll continue to watch the models in regards to the timing there and strength of the system.
GFS MOS Temps for CVG:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/KY.MRF.htm
I think for temps., I agree with the forecasted temps. for Fri - Sun. as you can see it shows 46 all 3 days. Also, Mon. looks decent at 54 as well. However for Tues., I think we'll be closer to 60 and for Wed., 59 looks to be too cold. I'm going with 65 for a high at this time.
Long Range:
As I have stated in previous blog entries, the end of March does look to be stormy. The last week in particular. This morning, the 0Z run of the GFS showed a big cut off low affecting the OH Valley bringing rounds of rain to the area after March 25th and lasting thru the end of the month. It also showed the 540 line (rain/snow line) being pretty far to the South at times, which also suggests some wintry precip as well. Taking a look at the newest run, 6Z, it still shows a stormy period, however, it is less aggressive with the colder air and keeps everything rain with the 540 line way up in Northern Lower Michigan. At this time, I am not going to bite on to the wintry solution of the 0Z GFS, nor am I going to bite on to the cut off low either. Today, was the first time that I have seen the cut-off low scenerio in any model run, so I'd like to see how the models continue to handle the last week of March as we get closer to that timeframe. What I can say with confidence is that the remainder of March does look to be stormy with above normal precip. looking to be a good bet for the Eastern US, and whether the cold air will be able to get this far South remains in question.
As always, stay with your inboxes, this blog, and the USA Weather Forum for further updates!
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Record High Threatened Today - Severe Weather Tomorrow?
3/13/07 7:20am - Edited 7pm
Good morning all!
The record high at CVG is 80 today! I do not think we will break that record. I think high temps. will be 2-4 degrees lower then that. I'm going to forecast a high of 77 today for CVG.
Our focus then turns to our midweek storm system. The past couple of days, the SPC has shown us in a low risk of severe weather, only a 5% chance. This morning, we are now under a slight risk, with a 30% probability all the way down to the OH River!
Click here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
NAM and GFS maybe overdoing the moisture and instability though for Wed. afternoon and also during the overnight period. However, if surface dewpoints actually do get that high and if capes do reach between 1000-2000 k/JG (like the NAM suggests) then severe weather is possible! I think, again, that the NAM is overdoing it. Also, I think it'll depend on how much sunshine we get as well on Wed. If we can start the day with some sun, than watch out! Otherwise, if we receive a lot of clouds and rain Wed. morning then our chances look slim. It's a wait and see game at this point.
Side note:
A friend of mine, Anthony Torres from San Ant., TX, has his own Audio Forecasts now for his area and also for the Nation. I will edit the blog this evening and paste the links here. He updates them daily.
Ok here are the links:
San Ant Weather - www.ohiovalleyweather.com/alamoweather/sanantoniowx.mp3
National Weather: www.ohiovalleyweather.com/alamoweather/natlweather.mp3
EDIT:
Well, I topped out at 78 today here at the Weather Office in Burlington, while CVG made it to 79. We ALMOST made it!
In regards to our severe weather threat, the SPC still has us under a slight risk, however, the probability has been lowered to 15%. I suspect that due to all of the clouds and rain, at times, tomorrow, that the instability will be lacking and hence the severe weather threat looks to be decreasing at this time. I can not rule out an isolated severe storm or two, nothing widespread can be expected at this time. Thurs. looks to be wet day also, with periods of rain throughout the day. Fri. looks dry at this point, but turning cooler.
For the weekend, we can expect highs in the low to mid 40s on Sat. with flurries and rain showers possible, and dry skies can be expected on Sun. however highs should remain in the 40s then as well, maybe near 50 if we see enough sunshine.
SPC's Latest Outlook:
http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Good morning all!
The record high at CVG is 80 today! I do not think we will break that record. I think high temps. will be 2-4 degrees lower then that. I'm going to forecast a high of 77 today for CVG.
Our focus then turns to our midweek storm system. The past couple of days, the SPC has shown us in a low risk of severe weather, only a 5% chance. This morning, we are now under a slight risk, with a 30% probability all the way down to the OH River!
Click here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
NAM and GFS maybe overdoing the moisture and instability though for Wed. afternoon and also during the overnight period. However, if surface dewpoints actually do get that high and if capes do reach between 1000-2000 k/JG (like the NAM suggests) then severe weather is possible! I think, again, that the NAM is overdoing it. Also, I think it'll depend on how much sunshine we get as well on Wed. If we can start the day with some sun, than watch out! Otherwise, if we receive a lot of clouds and rain Wed. morning then our chances look slim. It's a wait and see game at this point.
Side note:
A friend of mine, Anthony Torres from San Ant., TX, has his own Audio Forecasts now for his area and also for the Nation. I will edit the blog this evening and paste the links here. He updates them daily.
Ok here are the links:
San Ant Weather - www.ohiovalleyweather.com/alamoweather/sanantoniowx.mp3
National Weather: www.ohiovalleyweather.com/alamoweather/natlweather.mp3
EDIT:
Well, I topped out at 78 today here at the Weather Office in Burlington, while CVG made it to 79. We ALMOST made it!
In regards to our severe weather threat, the SPC still has us under a slight risk, however, the probability has been lowered to 15%. I suspect that due to all of the clouds and rain, at times, tomorrow, that the instability will be lacking and hence the severe weather threat looks to be decreasing at this time. I can not rule out an isolated severe storm or two, nothing widespread can be expected at this time. Thurs. looks to be wet day also, with periods of rain throughout the day. Fri. looks dry at this point, but turning cooler.
For the weekend, we can expect highs in the low to mid 40s on Sat. with flurries and rain showers possible, and dry skies can be expected on Sun. however highs should remain in the 40s then as well, maybe near 50 if we see enough sunshine.
SPC's Latest Outlook:
http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Mild Air Followed by a Cooling Trend by Week's End
3/11/07 8pm Edited: 3/12/07 12:40pm Edited again at 8:25pm
Good evening folks!
It's been a few days since I have updated my blog, but honestly there hasn't been much to talk about. The models pretty much handled Saturday's system very well. Rains were not that heavy and by 2pm, the sun was out here at the Weather Office.
Today, was a beautiful day as we topped out at 60 degrees here at the weather office. The GFS MOS shows the following for Mon - Wed in regards to high temps:
MON 12 TUE 13 WED 14
31 64 45 68 53 67
Here are my forecasted highs:
Mon - 67
Tues - 72
Wed - 63
Then, I expect us to go down hill. I expect some showers to hit the area Wed. and Thurs. The system does not look all that impressive in regards to heavy rainfall. I think, right now, anywhere from .25" to .50" of rainfall is possible during the 2 day period. No severe T-storms are expected although on Wed. a t-storm or two can not be ruled out.
After that storm moves away, highs will drop into the lower and middle 40s for Fri and Sat. but we'll have dry skies. By Sun. we'll see temps in the upper 40s to near 50, again under dry skies.
Long Term Outlook:
I think after March 19th or 20th, I see a stormier weather pattern moving in with a storm system affecting the area every 2 days or so. Temp. wise, probably averaging near normal through out the last 10 days of March. I'll have more to come on the long term outlook for the rest of March next week, but for now, the last 10 days look stormy.
EDIT:
Well, thanks again to the GFS MOS, my temp. forecast has busted yet again! As of 12 noon, CVG was only up to 50 degrees. Due to all of the cloud cover today, I doubt we will come close to 60. Tomorrow though, I'm still going with my earlier high of 72, maybe 73-74, as I think we'll see sunny skies tomorrow.
EDIT #2:
Well, well, well... my forecast for today did NOT bust after all! The afternoon sunshine saved my forecast! CVG got up to 66, and I forecasted 67 =) Tomorrow, I am still going with 72.
Good evening folks!
It's been a few days since I have updated my blog, but honestly there hasn't been much to talk about. The models pretty much handled Saturday's system very well. Rains were not that heavy and by 2pm, the sun was out here at the Weather Office.
Today, was a beautiful day as we topped out at 60 degrees here at the weather office. The GFS MOS shows the following for Mon - Wed in regards to high temps:
MON 12 TUE 13 WED 14
31 64 45 68 53 67
Here are my forecasted highs:
Mon - 67
Tues - 72
Wed - 63
Then, I expect us to go down hill. I expect some showers to hit the area Wed. and Thurs. The system does not look all that impressive in regards to heavy rainfall. I think, right now, anywhere from .25" to .50" of rainfall is possible during the 2 day period. No severe T-storms are expected although on Wed. a t-storm or two can not be ruled out.
After that storm moves away, highs will drop into the lower and middle 40s for Fri and Sat. but we'll have dry skies. By Sun. we'll see temps in the upper 40s to near 50, again under dry skies.
Long Term Outlook:
I think after March 19th or 20th, I see a stormier weather pattern moving in with a storm system affecting the area every 2 days or so. Temp. wise, probably averaging near normal through out the last 10 days of March. I'll have more to come on the long term outlook for the rest of March next week, but for now, the last 10 days look stormy.
EDIT:
Well, thanks again to the GFS MOS, my temp. forecast has busted yet again! As of 12 noon, CVG was only up to 50 degrees. Due to all of the cloud cover today, I doubt we will come close to 60. Tomorrow though, I'm still going with my earlier high of 72, maybe 73-74, as I think we'll see sunny skies tomorrow.
EDIT #2:
Well, well, well... my forecast for today did NOT bust after all! The afternoon sunshine saved my forecast! CVG got up to 66, and I forecasted 67 =) Tomorrow, I am still going with 72.
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
A Warming Trend is on the Way!
3/7/07 1:15pm - Edited at 8:20pm
Good afternoon folks!
The cold weather that we've been seeing is just about done for a while. The models have started to consistantly show warmer weather moving into the region. While we still have a shot at some rain this weekend, to me the precip. amounts do not look all that impressive. There will be some showers moving thru Late Friday night, Sat., and wrapping up on Sun. morning. It will not rain the entire time, just periods of showers. If the models change their thinking here, I'll let you know.
The main purpose of this blog entry is to discuss the warming trend. Temps. starting on Fri should be in the 50s! then, by either Tues or Wed. of next week, I see a prolonged period of 60 degree temps, ranging anywhere from 60-65 degrees!!! I'm sure that makes everyone feel all warm inside now! The prediction that I just made was based on the last 2 days of models runs and the most current model runs, the 12Z GFS and NAM. I do see a possible cold snap again around the March 16th or 17th timeframe, but that'll only last a day or two, and then temps. should warm back up.
Overall, I am predicting above normal temps. for the 2nd and possibly 3rd week of March. I think we'll see a stormier pattern as well develop starting with the March 16th/17th system.
EDIT:
Model Update: GFS Temps. for CVG Look at Tues. and Wed.!!!
COVINGTON KCVG GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 3/07/2007 1200 UTC FHR 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192
THU 08 FRI 09 SAT 10 SUN 11 MON 12 TUE 13 WED 14 CLIMO
24 49 32 59 45 56 40 53 39 57 44 64 49 65 32 51
P24 4 6 60 56 61 34 2 4 44
Now if you remember my Model 101 lesson from last night, here we can see the date, temps, normals, and POP's. (Probability of Precip.) (P24 column)
Check out those 60's for next week!!! Precip. chances look slim too minus this weekend and MAYBE on into Monday, but I'm still going with a dry Monday at this point. It will be light rain this weekend too, so don't cancel all of your outdoor plans just yet. The 12Z NAM from earlier today, showed even less moisture then the GFS (which is typical), but even the NAM was a bit drier then it has been.
Good afternoon folks!
The cold weather that we've been seeing is just about done for a while. The models have started to consistantly show warmer weather moving into the region. While we still have a shot at some rain this weekend, to me the precip. amounts do not look all that impressive. There will be some showers moving thru Late Friday night, Sat., and wrapping up on Sun. morning. It will not rain the entire time, just periods of showers. If the models change their thinking here, I'll let you know.
The main purpose of this blog entry is to discuss the warming trend. Temps. starting on Fri should be in the 50s! then, by either Tues or Wed. of next week, I see a prolonged period of 60 degree temps, ranging anywhere from 60-65 degrees!!! I'm sure that makes everyone feel all warm inside now! The prediction that I just made was based on the last 2 days of models runs and the most current model runs, the 12Z GFS and NAM. I do see a possible cold snap again around the March 16th or 17th timeframe, but that'll only last a day or two, and then temps. should warm back up.
Overall, I am predicting above normal temps. for the 2nd and possibly 3rd week of March. I think we'll see a stormier pattern as well develop starting with the March 16th/17th system.
EDIT:
Model Update: GFS Temps. for CVG Look at Tues. and Wed.!!!
COVINGTON KCVG GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 3/07/2007 1200 UTC FHR 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192
THU 08 FRI 09 SAT 10 SUN 11 MON 12 TUE 13 WED 14 CLIMO
24 49 32 59 45 56 40 53 39 57 44 64 49 65 32 51
P24 4 6 60 56 61 34 2 4 44
Now if you remember my Model 101 lesson from last night, here we can see the date, temps, normals, and POP's. (Probability of Precip.) (P24 column)
Check out those 60's for next week!!! Precip. chances look slim too minus this weekend and MAYBE on into Monday, but I'm still going with a dry Monday at this point. It will be light rain this weekend too, so don't cancel all of your outdoor plans just yet. The 12Z NAM from earlier today, showed even less moisture then the GFS (which is typical), but even the NAM was a bit drier then it has been.
Monday, March 5, 2007
Models are Trending COLDER - Wetter Looking Weekend
3/5/07 7:50pm
Good evening folks!
I just managed to find a little time to check out the 12Z Model runs today. The models are definately trending colder for the rest of this week. The 50 degree temps. are now probably going to be delayed until Friday now at this point.
Check out the GFS MOS Temps. for CVG (Airport):
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/KY.MRF.htm
This column shows the date, and CLIMO = climitalogy or normals.
TUE 06 WED 07 THU 08 FRI 09 SAT 10 SUN 11 MON 12 CLIMO
Temps:
N/X 18 36 25 44 22 43 28 57 39 54 36 53 36 52 31 51
Dewpoint and Wind:
DPT 10 13 22 23 17 17 21 31 35 35 32 31 31 35 32
WND 13 8 7 15 12 7 7 13 10 10 7 10 7 13 7
Probability of precip in %:
P24 4 44 3 13 55 34 44 44
Those really are the only columns really worth looking at. Now as one can see, it shows a chilly morning and a chilly day as well for tomorrow! I agree with the forecasted high of 36 tomorrow, but I think the 18 is a few degrees too cold so I am going with 21. As I type this blog entry, the current temp. outside the Weather Office is still at 34 degrees. So, just a little Model 101 there in regards to looking at one piece of how meteorologists make their temp. forecasts. One factor out of many.
Now in regards to our precip. chances, they still look slim until the weekend. However, the models are still advertising a weak clipper for Tues. night and Wed. morning. Now, we will just be skirted by it. The best coverage of snow is going to be well North of us. If anyone close to us has a shot of accumulating snow, it'll be North of I-70. Findlay, Lima, maybe even down to Sidney, all stand a shot of getting 1-2". South of I-70 Little, if anything is expected. Precip. type may also come into question for us, but even if we do see any frz rain or sleet, or even plain rain on Wed. it'll all be light and not last long enough to present any problems at all.
Otherwise, our next best shot at precip. will be on Sat and Sun. The models are still showing light precip. amounts for Sat. on avg. < .25". The 12Z models today have also shown secondary low pressure development along the front which could bring us the rain on Sunday. Hopefully, it'll by gone before Monday. We'll have to wait and see future model runs to see if that secondary low still shows up or not.
Good evening folks!
I just managed to find a little time to check out the 12Z Model runs today. The models are definately trending colder for the rest of this week. The 50 degree temps. are now probably going to be delayed until Friday now at this point.
Check out the GFS MOS Temps. for CVG (Airport):
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/KY.MRF.htm
This column shows the date, and CLIMO = climitalogy or normals.
TUE 06 WED 07 THU 08 FRI 09 SAT 10 SUN 11 MON 12 CLIMO
Temps:
N/X 18 36 25 44 22 43 28 57 39 54 36 53 36 52 31 51
Dewpoint and Wind:
DPT 10 13 22 23 17 17 21 31 35 35 32 31 31 35 32
WND 13 8 7 15 12 7 7 13 10 10 7 10 7 13 7
Probability of precip in %:
P24 4 44 3 13 55 34 44 44
Those really are the only columns really worth looking at. Now as one can see, it shows a chilly morning and a chilly day as well for tomorrow! I agree with the forecasted high of 36 tomorrow, but I think the 18 is a few degrees too cold so I am going with 21. As I type this blog entry, the current temp. outside the Weather Office is still at 34 degrees. So, just a little Model 101 there in regards to looking at one piece of how meteorologists make their temp. forecasts. One factor out of many.
Now in regards to our precip. chances, they still look slim until the weekend. However, the models are still advertising a weak clipper for Tues. night and Wed. morning. Now, we will just be skirted by it. The best coverage of snow is going to be well North of us. If anyone close to us has a shot of accumulating snow, it'll be North of I-70. Findlay, Lima, maybe even down to Sidney, all stand a shot of getting 1-2". South of I-70 Little, if anything is expected. Precip. type may also come into question for us, but even if we do see any frz rain or sleet, or even plain rain on Wed. it'll all be light and not last long enough to present any problems at all.
Otherwise, our next best shot at precip. will be on Sat and Sun. The models are still showing light precip. amounts for Sat. on avg. < .25". The 12Z models today have also shown secondary low pressure development along the front which could bring us the rain on Sunday. Hopefully, it'll by gone before Monday. We'll have to wait and see future model runs to see if that secondary low still shows up or not.
Sunday, March 4, 2007
A Quiet Week, But a Chilly One
3/4/07 5:50pm
After this weekend's snow shower activity and cooler temps., the upcoming work week will be a cool one, but will feature a slow warming trend towards the end of the week ahead of our next storm system for Fri. night and Sat. But, before we get to that system, let's talk about the snow! Okay, we are into Meteorological Spring now, but the calendar still says winter for several more weeks.
We picked up a couple of dustings from Sat into early Sun. morning. Probably total, a half inch fell here at the Weather Office in Burlington, KY. In Oregonia, OH, at my branch office location, I recorded over an inch there! Today's high was a chilly 33 at CVG! I recorded 37 here at the Weather Office in Burlington, KY. Normal highs for this time of year is 49, almost 50 degrees! We were 16 degrees below normal for the high today! WOW! The winds also made the wind chills dip down into the teens and 20s at times.
For tomorrow, we can expect a mix of sun and cluds, with more clouds in the afternoon. A weak cold front will be dropping down into the region. I can not rule out a few scattered flurries with this front, but nothing more. No accumulation is expected. Highs will be in the lower 40s tomorrow. Both the 12Z GFS and NAM show another cold front dropping in Tues. night / early Wed. morning. The majority of the energy, although weak, will be north of I-70. At this point, it'll be a dry cold front for Cincinnati. Temps. on Tues will be in the lower 40s with early highs on Wed. in the lower 40s before falling during the day with the passage of the cold front.
By Thurs, we'll begin to see slightly warmer air enter the region on the back side of high pressure. Highs will be in the upper 40s to near 50, and into the lower and middle 50s for Fri. The 12Z GFS brings in another front for Fri. night and Sat. To me at this point, the system looks weak, and not nearly as strong as the last few that have rolled thru here. The GFS is indicating max precip amounts of a half inch along and South of the OH River, with a quarter inch to the NW of Cincinnati. I think the GFS seems a tad wet at this point, so I'm going with a quarter of an inch for the area. Highs will slowly drop into the middle 40s by next Sun. but with dry conditions. It currently looks like a 50/50 weekend.
Long Term Discussion:
The 12Z GFS again shows another warming trend from March 12-15th, however, by the afternoon of the 15th, we have yet another cold front coming down from the North. This one looks a little stronger then the previous two, and the precip. event here may end as an inch or two of snow during the nighttime hours of the 15th. Models are currently showing a quarter inch of precip. with the 540 line shown to our South at the 228 hour mark.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US
Then click ahead a few more frames. Look at the cold shot of air the model brings in behind this storm system. If the current model solutions were to pan out, we'd have more below normal highs in the 30s and low 40s March 16-17th, with yet another warming trend and another system coming in around the 21st!
As one can see, the topsy-turvey temperature swings of March look to continue with a few storm systems rolling thru from time to time. It doesn't look like any HUGE storm systems look to affect the area in the next 10-14 days, but some activity can continue to be expected. Currently, I do not see any extended periods of above normal temps. nor do I see any 60 degree temps. in our future as of yet.
Stay tuned to the blog, emails, and USA Weather Network Forum for more details!
Forum Link: http://www.createforum.com/usaweather/
Also, continue to check out http://www.geocities.com/cincyforecast for more website changes!
After this weekend's snow shower activity and cooler temps., the upcoming work week will be a cool one, but will feature a slow warming trend towards the end of the week ahead of our next storm system for Fri. night and Sat. But, before we get to that system, let's talk about the snow! Okay, we are into Meteorological Spring now, but the calendar still says winter for several more weeks.
We picked up a couple of dustings from Sat into early Sun. morning. Probably total, a half inch fell here at the Weather Office in Burlington, KY. In Oregonia, OH, at my branch office location, I recorded over an inch there! Today's high was a chilly 33 at CVG! I recorded 37 here at the Weather Office in Burlington, KY. Normal highs for this time of year is 49, almost 50 degrees! We were 16 degrees below normal for the high today! WOW! The winds also made the wind chills dip down into the teens and 20s at times.
For tomorrow, we can expect a mix of sun and cluds, with more clouds in the afternoon. A weak cold front will be dropping down into the region. I can not rule out a few scattered flurries with this front, but nothing more. No accumulation is expected. Highs will be in the lower 40s tomorrow. Both the 12Z GFS and NAM show another cold front dropping in Tues. night / early Wed. morning. The majority of the energy, although weak, will be north of I-70. At this point, it'll be a dry cold front for Cincinnati. Temps. on Tues will be in the lower 40s with early highs on Wed. in the lower 40s before falling during the day with the passage of the cold front.
By Thurs, we'll begin to see slightly warmer air enter the region on the back side of high pressure. Highs will be in the upper 40s to near 50, and into the lower and middle 50s for Fri. The 12Z GFS brings in another front for Fri. night and Sat. To me at this point, the system looks weak, and not nearly as strong as the last few that have rolled thru here. The GFS is indicating max precip amounts of a half inch along and South of the OH River, with a quarter inch to the NW of Cincinnati. I think the GFS seems a tad wet at this point, so I'm going with a quarter of an inch for the area. Highs will slowly drop into the middle 40s by next Sun. but with dry conditions. It currently looks like a 50/50 weekend.
Long Term Discussion:
The 12Z GFS again shows another warming trend from March 12-15th, however, by the afternoon of the 15th, we have yet another cold front coming down from the North. This one looks a little stronger then the previous two, and the precip. event here may end as an inch or two of snow during the nighttime hours of the 15th. Models are currently showing a quarter inch of precip. with the 540 line shown to our South at the 228 hour mark.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US
Then click ahead a few more frames. Look at the cold shot of air the model brings in behind this storm system. If the current model solutions were to pan out, we'd have more below normal highs in the 30s and low 40s March 16-17th, with yet another warming trend and another system coming in around the 21st!
As one can see, the topsy-turvey temperature swings of March look to continue with a few storm systems rolling thru from time to time. It doesn't look like any HUGE storm systems look to affect the area in the next 10-14 days, but some activity can continue to be expected. Currently, I do not see any extended periods of above normal temps. nor do I see any 60 degree temps. in our future as of yet.
Stay tuned to the blog, emails, and USA Weather Network Forum for more details!
Forum Link: http://www.createforum.com/usaweather/
Also, continue to check out http://www.geocities.com/cincyforecast for more website changes!
Thursday, March 1, 2007
A Possible Storm Fri. Afternoon then a Chilly Weekend...
3/1/07 9pm
Well... we had too much stablity in the air today, and thus, we never saw any Severe Weather. You'll have that sometimes, esp. this time of year. Well, tomorrow, as the colder air moves in, we'll see a s/w move thru in the afternoon. Now, if we see any sunshine in the morning at all, then we'll get a few t-showers to pop up in the afternoon, and some of which could contain small hail. If we do not see any sun, then a few showers are possible. For Sat, again, another cloudy day with a few flurries possible. Sun then begins drier times ahead. Temps. will be in the low to mid 40s Fri, and in the uppers 30s for the weekend.
We will then see an extended period of dry weather for a change and another warming trend! Mon thru Wed all look sunny with highs starting out in the low to mid 40s Mon, in the upper 40s for Tues, and cracking 50 by Wed!
Another storm system will effect the region by Thurs. afternoon. At this point, the system does not look near as strong as the other three. Temps. on Thurs. will be in the low to mid 50s.
Well... we had too much stablity in the air today, and thus, we never saw any Severe Weather. You'll have that sometimes, esp. this time of year. Well, tomorrow, as the colder air moves in, we'll see a s/w move thru in the afternoon. Now, if we see any sunshine in the morning at all, then we'll get a few t-showers to pop up in the afternoon, and some of which could contain small hail. If we do not see any sun, then a few showers are possible. For Sat, again, another cloudy day with a few flurries possible. Sun then begins drier times ahead. Temps. will be in the low to mid 40s Fri, and in the uppers 30s for the weekend.
We will then see an extended period of dry weather for a change and another warming trend! Mon thru Wed all look sunny with highs starting out in the low to mid 40s Mon, in the upper 40s for Tues, and cracking 50 by Wed!
Another storm system will effect the region by Thurs. afternoon. At this point, the system does not look near as strong as the other three. Temps. on Thurs. will be in the low to mid 50s.
MAJOR Severe Weather Outbreak in Progress...
3/1/07 7:15am
WOW, what a historical event we have on-going here folks! I was tracking some impressive supercell T-storms last night in KS and MO. Today, there is even a High Risk area in MS, and AL!!! There are tornado and severe T-storm watches currently up for Western KY Southern IL, West TN, and Missouri.
Too see the latest watch graphic from the SPC, click here:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
Latest Meso-Scale Discussions:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
Latest Threat areas: (Slight, Moderate, and High Risk)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
For us here in Cincy, a warm front is moving thru the region this morning, hence the T-storm action that we had here this morning. At 5am, we had a major light show in prgress in Northern KY, with even a few pea to marble sized hail reports throughout the Tri-State also. Keep an eye to the sky today everyone!!!
Stay tuned for the latest!!!
WOW, what a historical event we have on-going here folks! I was tracking some impressive supercell T-storms last night in KS and MO. Today, there is even a High Risk area in MS, and AL!!! There are tornado and severe T-storm watches currently up for Western KY Southern IL, West TN, and Missouri.
Too see the latest watch graphic from the SPC, click here:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
Latest Meso-Scale Discussions:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
Latest Threat areas: (Slight, Moderate, and High Risk)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
For us here in Cincy, a warm front is moving thru the region this morning, hence the T-storm action that we had here this morning. At 5am, we had a major light show in prgress in Northern KY, with even a few pea to marble sized hail reports throughout the Tri-State also. Keep an eye to the sky today everyone!!!
Stay tuned for the latest!!!
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