A Cold Weekend in Store then Turning Stormy

3/15/07 11:40am

Well, as predicted, we did not see any severe weather in the Tri-State. As predicted, severe weather was reported in Northern OH, as a couple of tornadoes did occur last night up that way. This morning, those same areas were receiving wintry weather!!! In fact, winter weather advisories and ice storm warnings were in effect! For us, our temp. also dropped dramatically. At 5am CVG was 61, then at 7am, we had rain and a temp. of 39! WOW! What a drop! The current temp as of 12 noon is 37 degrees. For the rest of today, we can expect some more rain, with the heaviest rains remaining to our North. The rain will begin to taper off this afternoon.

Current radar image:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=ILN&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

As of this post, the bulk of the rain has moved out of the Northern parts of the Tri-State and is now pretty much situated along and to the SE of I-71. The trend will continue for the rain to taper off, and by this afternoon, it should be over with. I think we'll have a dry rush hour as well.

As we hit Friday, it'll be a chilly day with highs remaining in the 40s, and that trend will continue on into the weekend as well. Our next storm system will arrive Sun. night and last on into the day on Monday. At this point, it looks to be all rain. However, if the precip. moves in fast enough, it could start out as a little bit of wintry precip. but at this point, it does not look to be a big deal at all. I'll continue to monitor that for you.

For the rest of next week, I think we'll see temps. slowly rebound into the 60s by Wed. as yet another storm system moves into the region with some T-storms possible late Wed. and possibly lasting into Thurs. as well. It's a long ways off, so I'll continue to watch the models in regards to the timing there and strength of the system.

GFS MOS Temps for CVG:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/KY.MRF.htm

I think for temps., I agree with the forecasted temps. for Fri - Sun. as you can see it shows 46 all 3 days. Also, Mon. looks decent at 54 as well. However for Tues., I think we'll be closer to 60 and for Wed., 59 looks to be too cold. I'm going with 65 for a high at this time.

Long Range:

As I have stated in previous blog entries, the end of March does look to be stormy. The last week in particular. This morning, the 0Z run of the GFS showed a big cut off low affecting the OH Valley bringing rounds of rain to the area after March 25th and lasting thru the end of the month. It also showed the 540 line (rain/snow line) being pretty far to the South at times, which also suggests some wintry precip as well. Taking a look at the newest run, 6Z, it still shows a stormy period, however, it is less aggressive with the colder air and keeps everything rain with the 540 line way up in Northern Lower Michigan. At this time, I am not going to bite on to the wintry solution of the 0Z GFS, nor am I going to bite on to the cut off low either. Today, was the first time that I have seen the cut-off low scenerio in any model run, so I'd like to see how the models continue to handle the last week of March as we get closer to that timeframe. What I can say with confidence is that the remainder of March does look to be stormy with above normal precip. looking to be a good bet for the Eastern US, and whether the cold air will be able to get this far South remains in question.

As always, stay with your inboxes, this blog, and the USA Weather Forum for further updates!