It's been a while since I have updated the blog here, but I'm currently out of town doing this from a remote location. I had to find the model links and everything again, which I have done. What a beautiful weekend that we have in progress! We reached a high in the upper 70s yesterday, followed by a high close to 80 today and near 82 tomorrow! I even managed to get out on the water yesterday to do some crappie fishing. My Brother and I had a blast! We caught over 125 fish and cleaned 73! It was a great day to be outside, and it still is today.
The models are pretty much showing us a daily chance of showers and T-storms for the majority of the upcoming work week. Not everyone will see rain everyday, but when a shower or a storm moves over you, you'll know it's there, as most storms should remain below severe limits until we get to the end of the week. We'll have a good chance at seeing some strong storms on Mon as well, but to me, the best chance of severe weather will be when the main cold front finally pushes across our region, which again, will be at week's end.
That same ridge of high pressure that I have been talking about is still there off of the SE Coast. It is now going to strengthen even more this week to pretty much keep the cold front at bay over the Plain States. Also, a slow moving Upper Level Low will be bringing heavy flooding rains to TX. Currently, some areas in the Hill Country could get up to 5" of rain by midnight!
For us, little pieces of energy will continue to head our way out ahead of the aforementioned storm system. That's what'll provide us with our daily chances at storms. Also, we'll begin the week extremely mild and after the main cold front pushes thru, we'll see some much cooler air move in by next weekend. Temp. wise, we'll see highs around 80 today, probably around 82 or so for tomorrow, then slowly, we'll drop through the 70s and eventually, highs will tumble back down to normal levels by next Sat., with a current high of 63 expected.
Long Range: (April 1-10th)
Below normal temps. look to be the rule here, as we go through a pattern change again. A trough should reside over the Central and Eastern US during this period. We'll see a NW flow aloft which is horrible for severe weather. The slow start for the OH Valley here looks to continue outside of our end of the week chance. Today's 6Z GFS model run shows a nice heavy rain event still for Apr 5th-6th.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US
So, as always, I'll continue to monitor.
EDIT:
The record high for 3/26 is 82 set back in 1907. I think we'll beat that record as well. GFS MOS says: 78 - But lately, as we all know, it has been underforecasting the warmth.
I'm going with 84 degrees.
EDIT #2:
Well, I busted folks, plain and simple. CVG only topped out at 78 to my knowledge, 4 degrees shy of a record and 6 degrees cooler then my forecasted high of 84. What went wrong? Two words: Cloud cover If we would have received the sunshine that we did yesterday, then yes, we would have hit my high temp.
My KUDO today goes out to Nick and his "Baby" the GFS! The GFS nailed it perfectly!
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