A Warming Trend is on the Way!

3/7/07 1:15pm - Edited at 8:20pm

Good afternoon folks!

The cold weather that we've been seeing is just about done for a while. The models have started to consistantly show warmer weather moving into the region. While we still have a shot at some rain this weekend, to me the precip. amounts do not look all that impressive. There will be some showers moving thru Late Friday night, Sat., and wrapping up on Sun. morning. It will not rain the entire time, just periods of showers. If the models change their thinking here, I'll let you know.

The main purpose of this blog entry is to discuss the warming trend. Temps. starting on Fri should be in the 50s! then, by either Tues or Wed. of next week, I see a prolonged period of 60 degree temps, ranging anywhere from 60-65 degrees!!! I'm sure that makes everyone feel all warm inside now! The prediction that I just made was based on the last 2 days of models runs and the most current model runs, the 12Z GFS and NAM. I do see a possible cold snap again around the March 16th or 17th timeframe, but that'll only last a day or two, and then temps. should warm back up.

Overall, I am predicting above normal temps. for the 2nd and possibly 3rd week of March. I think we'll see a stormier pattern as well develop starting with the March 16th/17th system.

EDIT:

Model Update: GFS Temps. for CVG Look at Tues. and Wed.!!!

COVINGTON KCVG GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 3/07/2007 1200 UTC FHR 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192
THU 08 FRI 09 SAT 10 SUN 11 MON 12 TUE 13 WED 14 CLIMO
24 49 32 59 45 56 40 53 39 57 44 64 49 65 32 51
P24 4 6 60 56 61 34 2 4 44

Now if you remember my Model 101 lesson from last night, here we can see the date, temps, normals, and POP's. (Probability of Precip.) (P24 column)

Check out those 60's for next week!!! Precip. chances look slim too minus this weekend and MAYBE on into Monday, but I'm still going with a dry Monday at this point. It will be light rain this weekend too, so don't cancel all of your outdoor plans just yet. The 12Z NAM from earlier today, showed even less moisture then the GFS (which is typical), but even the NAM was a bit drier then it has been.