Models are Trending COLDER - Wetter Looking Weekend

3/5/07 7:50pm

Good evening folks!

I just managed to find a little time to check out the 12Z Model runs today. The models are definately trending colder for the rest of this week. The 50 degree temps. are now probably going to be delayed until Friday now at this point.

Check out the GFS MOS Temps. for CVG (Airport):

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/KY.MRF.htm

This column shows the date, and CLIMO = climitalogy or normals.
TUE 06 WED 07 THU 08 FRI 09 SAT 10 SUN 11 MON 12 CLIMO

Temps:

N/X 18 36 25 44 22 43 28 57 39 54 36 53 36 52 31 51

Dewpoint and Wind:

DPT 10 13 22 23 17 17 21 31 35 35 32 31 31 35 32
WND 13 8 7 15 12 7 7 13 10 10 7 10 7 13 7

Probability of precip in %:

P24 4 44 3 13 55 34 44 44

Those really are the only columns really worth looking at. Now as one can see, it shows a chilly morning and a chilly day as well for tomorrow! I agree with the forecasted high of 36 tomorrow, but I think the 18 is a few degrees too cold so I am going with 21. As I type this blog entry, the current temp. outside the Weather Office is still at 34 degrees. So, just a little Model 101 there in regards to looking at one piece of how meteorologists make their temp. forecasts. One factor out of many.

Now in regards to our precip. chances, they still look slim until the weekend. However, the models are still advertising a weak clipper for Tues. night and Wed. morning. Now, we will just be skirted by it. The best coverage of snow is going to be well North of us. If anyone close to us has a shot of accumulating snow, it'll be North of I-70. Findlay, Lima, maybe even down to Sidney, all stand a shot of getting 1-2". South of I-70 Little, if anything is expected. Precip. type may also come into question for us, but even if we do see any frz rain or sleet, or even plain rain on Wed. it'll all be light and not last long enough to present any problems at all.

Otherwise, our next best shot at precip. will be on Sat and Sun. The models are still showing light precip. amounts for Sat. on avg. < .25". The 12Z models today have also shown secondary low pressure development along the front which could bring us the rain on Sunday. Hopefully, it'll by gone before Monday. We'll have to wait and see future model runs to see if that secondary low still shows up or not.