3/13/07 7:20am - Edited 7pm
Good morning all!
The record high at CVG is 80 today! I do not think we will break that record. I think high temps. will be 2-4 degrees lower then that. I'm going to forecast a high of 77 today for CVG.
Our focus then turns to our midweek storm system. The past couple of days, the SPC has shown us in a low risk of severe weather, only a 5% chance. This morning, we are now under a slight risk, with a 30% probability all the way down to the OH River!
Click here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
NAM and GFS maybe overdoing the moisture and instability though for Wed. afternoon and also during the overnight period. However, if surface dewpoints actually do get that high and if capes do reach between 1000-2000 k/JG (like the NAM suggests) then severe weather is possible! I think, again, that the NAM is overdoing it. Also, I think it'll depend on how much sunshine we get as well on Wed. If we can start the day with some sun, than watch out! Otherwise, if we receive a lot of clouds and rain Wed. morning then our chances look slim. It's a wait and see game at this point.
Side note:
A friend of mine, Anthony Torres from San Ant., TX, has his own Audio Forecasts now for his area and also for the Nation. I will edit the blog this evening and paste the links here. He updates them daily.
Ok here are the links:
San Ant Weather - www.ohiovalleyweather.com/alamoweather/sanantoniowx.mp3
National Weather: www.ohiovalleyweather.com/alamoweather/natlweather.mp3
EDIT:
Well, I topped out at 78 today here at the Weather Office in Burlington, while CVG made it to 79. We ALMOST made it!
In regards to our severe weather threat, the SPC still has us under a slight risk, however, the probability has been lowered to 15%. I suspect that due to all of the clouds and rain, at times, tomorrow, that the instability will be lacking and hence the severe weather threat looks to be decreasing at this time. I can not rule out an isolated severe storm or two, nothing widespread can be expected at this time. Thurs. looks to be wet day also, with periods of rain throughout the day. Fri. looks dry at this point, but turning cooler.
For the weekend, we can expect highs in the low to mid 40s on Sat. with flurries and rain showers possible, and dry skies can be expected on Sun. however highs should remain in the 40s then as well, maybe near 50 if we see enough sunshine.
SPC's Latest Outlook:
http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
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2 comments:
Darn, a severe weather threat would certainly liven things up around here!
Yes, Ang, I agree. I still think the best chances appear to be North of I-70. The latest from the SPC this morning remains unchanged from what we saw last night.
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