3/27/07 8:15pm
I'm writing this blog entry to talk about Severe Wx chances for the early weekend storm system. I say that because of the 18Z Nam and 12Z GFS model runs from today.
First, the SPC Says:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
Now, based on that threat map, we stand a slight chance of seeing Severe T-storms. I'm not all that impressed right now with the severe wx aspects.
The model runs today say, nope! Why? Timing! They bring the front thru on Sat. night/early Sun. morning. I think a slight chance of T-storms tomorrow evening, maybe 20-30% coverage, per the GFS. NAM also shows a bit of mositure too. To me, Thurs. and Fri. will be dry. Then by Sat. afternoon, showers and storms should move into the region with a strong cold front. 50-70% appears to be a good bet at this point. We'll fine tune the rain amount forecast later on, as the event draws nearer.
I'll be making edits on this post throughout the coming days as well. Stay tuned to this blog, and the USA WeatherNetwork for further updates!
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4 comments:
Great post read Tron! I think we maybe will see some isolated severe weather, but that's a big maybe..
Thanks for the comment Nick!
I'm in agreement. Severe wx chances are looking slim at this point. This morning, the SPC did not even have us in the red in their Day 4-8 Outlook like they did yesterday.
Hopefully no severe threats as we travel on Friday and Saturday evening. How does Saturday look in lower Michigan?
I don't think you'll have a severe wx threat at all, even up there. Weather looking tough this weekend though. Fri. is nice with temps in the 60s, but temps dropping into the 50s with rain on Sat. The system will exit on Sun. Breezy conditions look likely also. Latest GFS (0Z run) shows the rain moving in after 11am at this point for Detroit.
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