Warmer Weather Moving In - Also Stormy From Time to Time

3/20/07 7:40pm

Happy Spring Everyone!!! Today is the first day of Spring. Well, not today, but it does officially begin this evening. As such, Mother Nature is right on cue with warmer temps. in our future and also stormy conditions at times as well.

Before we get to that, I'd like to let everyone know that I attended a Storm Spotter Training course last night. It was sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Wilmington, OH. I learned quite a bit of useful information too! We talked about the life cycles of tornadoes and T-storms, how to detect them on radar, what to look for on the ground, and also some valuable safety tips. I'll be reporting severe weather to the NWS whenever it occurs in the Tri-State region, especially when it moves through the Weather Office here in Burlington. KUDOS again to Trevor Cole (a.k.a. Twister), who invited me to attend the event. It was great learning about everything with him and his Dad!

If you would like to become a storm spotter too, click on the link below for more information. Fortunately, I got in just in time, as time is running out for this year's training. But, there's always next year!

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/iln/training.htm

Today's models are still showing a warm front moving through the region late tonight/early tomorrow morning. So, we should see some rainfall across the region in the form of showers during this time. I can not rule out an isolated T-storm either, but instability does not look all that great right now according to the models. The strong ridge of high pressure, which is still located off of the SE Coast, keeps slowing down systems as they try and pass through our area. What the ridge will do, though is put us under a strong SW flow, which will in turn keep us above normal in the temp. dept. though the next 10 days at least.

After the warm front, we'll be in the warm sector Wed. night and Thurs., so for the most part, we should remain dry, but by Thurs. afternoon, as the cold front begins to slowly move towards the region, showers will again be on the increase. The NAM is much faster than the GFS today, so I will side with the GFS for this forecast package, especially since it is in line more with the Euro model. If the GFS and Euro are in agreement, then my confidence as a forecaster grows! The rain should continue for Thurs. night as well. Behind the front, we'll see a one day cool shot of air, which will be on Friday. Some more showers are possible as well here. Remember, due to the strength of the SE Ridge, systems will be slow to move out of the area.

As we head into the weekend, I can not rule out a lingering chance at some rain, especially Sat. morning, but by Sunday, we should be under sunny skies again as well with temps. rebounding to well above normal levels. As we begin yet another workweek, a new cold front should begin to affect the region with a chance of showers and T-storms yet again both Mon. and Tues.

At this point, nothing looks to be severe as far as T-storms go, however, we can never rule out an isolated storm. But, the chances at anything being widespread appear doubtful at this time. Checking the latest from the SPC, they show all of the severe weather to our West. Why do you ask? Because of the SE Ridge, slowing these fronts down, and weakening them as they try and break the ridge down. I do not see the ridge breaking down for again, the next 10 days at least. So, as these systems move into the OH Valley, they lose a lot of their energy. If you take a look at the current SPC Outlooks, you'll see what I mean. Look at the Day 2 Outlook (For Thurs.) and also the 4-8 Day Outlook, which shows the Western half of Texas potentially seeing a lot of action.

http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook

As far as temps. go through the period, after the warm front passes through in the morning, temps. will soar into the mid to upper 60s. If we see enough sunshine, then some areas may even break the 70 degree mark! We'll see winds begin to pick up out of the SE then the SW by afternoon after the warm front moves through. Wind gusts to 30mph are possible. For Thurs., winds could gust to 35mph then as highs make it into the lower 70's. The GFS MOS has a high of 71 here, and I actually think that looks good, especially if the slower GFS model solution verifies.

For Fri., we'll be behind the front as winds switch back around to the W and NW. Temps. will only make it into the mid to upper 50s then. The GFS I think is too warm under all of the clouds and showers that will be around. It has a high of 63 then, which I think is incorrect. 58 looks good in my opinion at this point.

By the weekend, I think we'll be back into the mid 60s for Sat, and cracking 70 again by Sun. Mon and Tues. of next week also appear to be mild with temps. in the 60's both days as well.

Long Range: (March 28 - Apr 5th)

The long range period here shows a dry Wed. and some more showers for Thurs. with another front moving through the area. After that, the GFS shows a dry period of weather with mild temps. Mar 30th - Apr. 2nd as the majority of the storms look to target the Great Lakes along a stationary front. In fact, it looks like a VERY wet period for the Great Lakes during most of the long range period. For us, April 3-5th, a slow moving front will begin to finally make a move towards our area. A heavy rain event appears possible at this point along with some severe weather, if the 12Z GFS run were to verify. I'll continue to monitor as this weather event, is a long ways off. Also, the system could easily weaken as it tries to break down the SE Ridge, or even slow down further. Temps. overall look to remain nice and mild through the period.