A Dry and Hot Week Ahead

07/30/07 4pm

I hope everyone enjoyed Friday's rainfall, because we will not see anymore rain for quite sometime. CVG officially picked up 0.47" for the event and some portions of the Tri-State North of the River picked up over an inch to an inch and a half.

This week's set up features a big ridge of high pressure to our West over the Northern Plains, and a NW Flow set up over the Ohio Valley. A stationary front is off to our South. I have made a surface map below with the features on it that I have just discussed.



The ridge is forecast to slowly expand Eastward this week. As it does so, we'll see high humidity and temps. in the lower 90s, with perhaps the mid 90s by the end of the week. I am only going with the lower 90s as the models have run a little warmer this summer then what the actual temps. have done. The 12Z GFS MOS Guidance has even lowered the temps. a degree or two across the board for this week as compared to the last several days.

Looking at the 12Z model runs, they continue to show High Pressure dominating our weather this week, with a weak cold front affecting the region on Monday. I only have a 20% POP at the end of the 7 Day.

Speaking of my 7 Day, here is the updated forecast.




Long Term Outlook (Aug 7th thru 15th)

The beginning of the long term period shows yet another front, with perhaps a little more moisture to work with affecting the region. Below, you will see a 12Z GFS model image valid at 192 hours. (Tue. Aug 7th)



The 12Z GFS then has another dry period after Aug 8th and brings in another front towards the end of the long term period. Thus, the drought will continue to increase. On this Thursday's Drought Monitor Map, we'll likely see some improvement, due to last weeks rainfall. However, as we progress through August, that will likely not be the case, with warmer and drier weather expected.

The Tropics

I also finally have something to talk about in the tropics! There are two areas of disturbed weather out in the Atlantic. One area is NW of Bermuda, and it is Moving NNE away from the US. I do not expect tropical development from that. The area of concern though is East of the Windward and Leeward Islands. This tropical wave shows up well on IR Satellite Imagery. Check out the image below.



As you can see, this tropical wave has a nice counter-clockwise swirl with it, so we'll have to see what happens as it continues its Westward trek. Nothing is expected to develop though for the next 48 hours. Otherwise, beyond that, it could become Chantel. I'll continue to monitor.

Cold Front to Affect the Region Fri and Sat

7/26/07 10pm

Some parts of the Tri-state have received some decent rains this week from our cut off low that I talked about in the last blog entry. CVG though was one of those areas that did not. A total of 0.04" has fallen this week at the Airport. Florence, just a few miles away received around 0.25" today! Parts of IN and OH received well over an inch. So, as is typical with cut-off lows, the rains were locally heavy in certain areas, and light in others.

Now, we move on to the Front. The models are in very good agreement with the timing. I think the best chance for seeing widespread shower and t-storm activity will be anytime after 5pm tomorrow and probably by midnight or so we should begin to taper off in intensity and areal coverage.

Here is a map that I have created which shows you my current thinking on the frontal position over the next two days.



If you look at this map, I have the upper level low, or cut off low depicted on this map by the red "L" over Canada/Upstate NY. That was the low that has been affecting us this week. Secondly, you can see the front as it progresses towards, and thru the area. Finally, the big "H" out West is where the big ridge of high pressure resides, and also where the intense heat has been for a while now.

As far as amounts go, the models are generally painting a nice rainfall event for the region. Below, I have two models images to show you. The first is of the 12Z NAM run valid at 33 hours. (Fri at 5pm)



As you can see, it generates a good inch to 1.25" for the region. The next image is of the 12Z GFS, valid at 42 hours. (Fri at 8pm)



The GFS shows everyone getting some nice rains as well, however, the best chance of 1"+ rains appear to be North of the OH River with this model run, with areas to the South, such as Northern KY, only getting around a half to perhaps 0.75" of rain.

My current thinking is that everyone in the Tri-State should pick up a good half inch of rain out of this, on average, with isolated spots (North of the River) picking up amounts of 1 to 1.5".

As far as any severe weather goes, a few cells could turn severe out ahead of the front, and I think between 2 and 4 warnings could be issued for the Tri-state tomorrow, but that would be about it. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, even though we are under a slight risk from the SPC. To further support my claim, here is an image of the forecast soundings from the RUC model valid at 12Z, which is Fri. morning at 8am.



According to the RUC model that is posted above, the following severe weather parameters are in place as we start the day tomorrow:

Precipitable Water = 1.63" (Mod. to Heavy rain possible)
Wet Bulb = 6 feet (Large Hail Threat - Low)
CAPE = 752 (I'd prefer it over 1500 for severe weather)
Lifted Index = -3.5 (I'd prefer it at -5 or -6 at least)

Remember, this is as of 8am, so naturally, these numbers will certainly increase as the day progresses tomorrow. If we can get some sunshine in here, then we stand a chance at getting some severe weather. However, low level shear is weak and that certainly will be against us. Also, another limiting factor will be cloud cover. How long will that stick around tomorrow? The trend this week has been for us to be cloudy for the first half of the day, and then sunny after 2pm or so. But, as I stated above a few isolated severe cells are possible, but nothing widespread.

After the front, we should begin to clear out by Sat. evening/overnight, and Sunday should be dry under partly cloudy skies. The remainder of the 7 Day period looks to be dry and warm with temps. approaching 90 by the middle of next week.

Below is my 7 Day forecast:




Long Term Outlook (Aug 3rd - 11th)

The models show very little going on for the long term period. But, as in the past, the models showed nothing then all of a sudden we've been dealing with a cut off low and now a cold front. So, take the long range period with a grain of salt folks. Either way, we will see a 5-7 day period of dryness after tomorrow night's front. I think the drought will continue to maintain itself or even get worse if the long range models pan out.

Below is the latest Drought Monitor Map from this morning:



I really thought that the D3 area in SE KY would be gone, due to their recent rains. However due to the cut off on the map's data (Tues at 7am), this might be why the D3 area is not gone yet. We'll see what the map looks like next week. Also, note how the D1 area has expanded into Michigan. Also, the drought is almost extending from Coast to Coast as well. The drought is not going away at all. In fact, it is increasing in coverage.

Cut Off Low to Affect the Region This Week

7/23/07 7pm

Good evening everyone! I'm back at the Weather Office here in Burlington, KY, now. As promised, I do have an updated 7 Day forecast in this blog entry. I also have created a few "home made" graphics as well.

After a beautiful weekend, a cut off low pressure system will affect the region this week. A cut off low is a low pressure system that is "cut off" from the main jet stream flow. The jet stream currently is situated way off to our North at the present time. This low is currently situated over VA/WVA and will slowly track NW and affect us in the OH Valley from Tues until Sat. A cold front will come thru on Sat. and finally clear all of the moisture out of the region.

Below, I have made a graphic depicting the upper level winds over the US, and as you can plainly see, the jet stream is located way off to our North. We also have a ridge of high pressure centered over the Western US. The cut off low is over VA/WVA at this time.



The next map I'd like to show you is the track of the cut off low. This is where I think it'll move over the next several days.



For Tues. the low will be too far away to bring us much rainfall. The best chance will be to the SE of Cincinnati. Therefore, I only have 20% POPS on Tues. For Wed. and Thurs., the POPS will slowly increase.

Below, is a model image of the 12Z GFS valid at 81 hours. (Thurs. at 5pm)



Here is another 12Z GFS model run image valid at 114 hours. (Sat. morning at 2am)



As you can see by the above image, the cold front will begin to move into the region. I have Sun and Mon. dry at this point as high pressure should move into the region behind the cold front.

Below, is my updated 7 Day Forecast.



Long Range Outlook (July 31st thru Aug. 8th)

At the start of the long range period, high pressure will dominate the region. Another cold front is shown by the 12Z GFS at 300 Hours. (Sat. Aug 4th at 8pm)



Another area of high pressure will move in behind that front for the remainder of the long term period. The drought has improved significantly for the region over the last week. It may continue to improve based on how much rain the cut off low brings us this week. However, CVG is still running almost 9" below normal since March 1st, and we have a lot of ground to make up yet.

Severe WX Threat Today - Dry Thru the Rest of July?

7/19/06 6am

Good morning everyone!

At the Branch Weather Office in Oregonia, OH, we picked up some nice rains overnight. I even heard some thunder as well. I can not give you an accurate rainfall amount, since I do not have any weather equipment there, but according to radar estimates, 0.25-0.50" fell over Warren Co. The heaviest rains fell North of I-70 overnight where as much as 2-3" of rain was recorded!

This morning's radar shows the rainfall all to the North of I-70 extending from Nebraska, all the way into Western PA. We will have to keep an eye on the radar today to see how that large swath of rain progresses. It will be interacting with a cold front, which will sag South towards the Tri-state today. We do stand a shot of seeing some severe wx this afternoon. I have a lot of images to show you today.

First, we'll start off with the SPC's probability map for today. We have a 15% chance at large hail and a 30% chance of damaging winds. The image below, is the wind threat map.



The next image I will show you is the 0Z Soundings for ILN (Wilmington).



The SB Cape looks great as it is over 2500 J/kg. LI is at -5, so the lift looks good. 6KM shear (at the surface) also looks somewhat impressive at 25 knots. PWATS are at 1.65" so heavy rain is likely with any storms that form. Wet bulb is at 12 feet, so large hail is also possible.

What worries me is that even though the severe wx parameters look good for today, the only fly in the ointment is the debris clouds from the T-storms to our North and West, which I mentioned earlier extend all the way West to Nebraska. Let me show you the latest satellite pic, and you'll see what I mean.



This can hurt our chances of getting some nice instability in here. However, the majority of the atmosphere was not affected by the overnight convection here in the Tri-state, so we have that going for us. If we can get some sunshine today, then watch out come this afternoon. Things could certainly get rocky around here. If the clouds hang tough, then it'll be a bust. My current thinking is that the further South you live in the Tri-state, the better chance you'll have at getting severe wx since your location would be furthest away from the cloud cover. Northern KY stands the best chance at getting severe wx in my opinion today.

As far as the timing of the front goes, the 0Z NAM has really sped up the progression of the front. Check out this 0Z model run image valid at 18 hours (Today at 2pm).



It has the front moving into the region by then and blowing it thru here by evening. The 0Z GFS, paints a much different picture and has the front affecting the region this evening, about 6 hours or so slower then the NAM, with a complex of storms affecting locations North of the OH River. Here is a model image valid at 24 Hours (Today at 8pm).



I personally agree with the GFS's solution here as it has been consistent with the majority of the models. The NAM is the odd ball model at this point in time. I think we stand the chance of seeing a pop-up storm at any time today, but they should become more widespread after 5pm today.

After this front moves thru, we should see a beautiful day tomorrow with some afternoon cumulus development. No rain is expected though. We'll see lower humidity values as well. The weekend looks WONDERFUL too, so get on out there and enjoy it. The dry weather pattern will continue for the beginning of next week as well with temps. warming back to 90 degrees by Tues or Wed.


Long Term Outlook (July 26 - Aug 3rd)

The GFS has shown nothing in terms of rainfall for the rest of July. It has been consistent in showing that all week long. Whether our rainfall for today occurs or not, the fact of the matter is, is that the drought will intensify for the entire region once again. I think highs in the lower to middle 90s is likely by the end of next week, and no rain for the rest of the month appears likely at this point. In fact, nothing thru August the 1st according to the 0Z GFS.

It finally does bring in a cold front by the end of the long term period, but honestly, you can not trust that whatsoever this far out in time. But, just for kicks, here is the model image valid at 360 Hours (Thurs. Aug 2nd at 8pm).



SIDE NOTE: The 7 Day forecast graphic should be returning with next week's blog entry.

Daily Chance of Storms Tues - Fri. - Mainly Slim Chances Though

7/16/07 6am

Yesterday's system delivered more rain and some severe wx, which I was not expecting. The NAM overall was closer then the GFS with this event. The Tri-State as a whole though still needs rainfall. CVG did not pick up anything from the event, and only recorded a Trace of precip. I'd say 65 or 70% of the Tri-state did not get anything yesterday at all.

I apologize in advance, but there will be no 7 Day forecast graphic with this blog update. Instead, you'll be reading the text version of it. Unfortunately, I have not had time to update the graphic. I am at my Branch Weather Office in Oregonia, OH, all this week, so I don't have a lot of the tools and goodies that I would be using at the Burlington Weather Office. Plus, I've been busy anyways.

This week's weather will be characterized by a trough over the Eastern Great Lakes on into New England and the huge heat dome of high pressure will remain out West. The OH Valley will be in between the ridge and trough, thus causing us to be caught in a NW Flow aloft. This will feature weak disturbances diving out of Canada bringing us a daily shot of rainfall.

The SPC even has us in a slight risk for Tues. and Wed. in regards to severe weather. Here is the Day 2 Probability Map:



The best chance though for rain this week, looks to be Thurs. night into Friday as the 0Z GFS shows an MCS riding along a cold front that is moving from N to S through the region. Here is a model image valid at 102 hours. (Thurs. night at 2am)



This coming weekend looks to be dry at this point as high pressure and cooler temps. move into the region. I think the Euro model illustrates this idea well. Here is an 850MB Temps. model image valid at 168 hours. (Sunday July 22nd)




Here is the text version of my forecast for this week. The forecast is valid for July 16th thru the 22nd.

Today - Mostly sunny. Highs around 89.

Mon. Night - Mostly clear. Lows near 70.

Tues - Morning sunny in the morning followed by increasing clouds in the afternoon. A 20% chance of T-storms in the afternoon. Highs around 90.

Tues. Night - An evening T-storm otherwise becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 71.

Wed. - Partly cloudy. A 30% chance of T-storms. Highs near 88.

Wed. Night - An evening T-storm otherwise becoming partly cloudy. Lows near 70.

Thurs - Mostly cloudy. A 40% chance of T-storms. Highs in the around 85.

Thurs. Night - A scattered evening T-storm, then a 50% chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows near 67.

Fri - A 50% chance of T-storms, especially in the morning. Highs around 80.

Fri. Night - Clearing skies. Lows around 63.

Sat and Sun - Mostly clear. Highs near 82 and lows around 60.


Long Term Outlook (July 23rd - July 31st)

The long term period looks to be dominated by High Pressure, as the GFS Model tries to expand the heat ridge that is going to remain out West all week, into the Plains and maybe even parts of the Midwest. Here is the 0Z GFS model image of 850MB temps. valid at 240 hours. (Thurs. July 26th)



As you can see, look at how much of the country is under warmer temps. now. You can also see a trough entering the Pacific NW, thus forcing the heat ridge to expand further Eastward.

The only real threat at any widespread rains comes towards the end of the long term period. The GFS will probably weaken the system in time, but for now, here is another 0Z GFS model run image valid at 312 hours. (Sat. July 28th at 8pm)



As we end July and start August, another possible heat ridge could affect the region for the first week of August. The drought will worsen as I have been saying for a long time now and if both heat ridges impact our region, as some model data suggests, then watch over the next several weeks as the Drought Monitor Maps come out each Thursday. You will see the D2 (Severe Drought Category) encompass more and more of the Tri-State. Almost 60% of the state of KY is in a D2 status or higher as of last week's update. Here is the map for KY:

Rain Chances Looking Slim Once Again

7/11/07 9:45pm

Well folks, our Tues./Wed. rainfall event was beneficial in some areas and a bust in others. Locations North of the OH River received anywhere from 0.25" to local amounts of 1.5". The hardest hit areas generally were along and North of I-275 in Ohio. So, who missed out on this rainfall? You guessed it! Northern KY!!! CVG recorded only 0.02" for the entire event. Here at the weather office in Burlington, we received no rain on Tues. and a few light showers during the pre-dawn hours this morning. I'd estimate that I recorded less than CVG, which is pathetic.

So, what's next? For tomorrow, I expect a beautiful day with low humidity and sunny skies. We have another cold front headed our way from the NW and it should arrive in the Tri-state late Thurs. night/early Fri. morning. I am not expecting a whole lot of rain with this system. I am only forecasting 30% POPS in the 7 Day, and even that might be a little bit too high. Only isolated showers and storms are expected with this front. What it will do though is provide us with a beautiful Fri. afternoon with cooler and less humid air. That should continue on into the weekend as well.

Below, check out the 18Z NAM model run. It is valid at 33 hours, which is Thurs. night at 11pm.



As you can see by this model run, the precip. out ahead of the cold front is just starting to enter the Tri-state. Note the precip. amounts here. The model is forecasting less then 0.25" for us.

Now look at the 12Z GFS model run for the same time period.



It shows nothing for us because the front and precip. are well off to our North. It has a much slower progression of the front but also brings in less precip. as well. If you side with the GFS solution then it shows between 0.10-0.15". I am siding with the GFS here as the NAM tends to overdevelop systems anyways. Also, due to the dry airmass we will already have in place starting tomorrow, I am only expecting a few lucky folks to get rain.

After that, as mentioned above, the weekend looks WONDERFUL! Low humidity can be expected and we'll see lots of sunshine. As we start the new workweek, we'll start to see an increase in humidity as well as temps. I have inserted a 20% POP in the 7 Day for Mon. afternoon. The reason being is that the 12Z GFS shows a system off to our South. I think that Central KY on Southward should see some decent rains Mon and Tues of next week. For us, not much, if anything at all. I have POPS for Mon. afternoon as I think enough moisture and instability could be around during the peak heating of the day on Mon, that an isolated storm could pop-up. If you live North of the OH river, then you'll probably see nothing at all. On Tues. the same thing, but I kept Tues dry on the 7 Day since the 12Z GFS shows the moisture just South of our Forecast Area. Otherwise, for the first half of next week, expect highs around 90 on Mon. rising into the lower 90s for Tues. and Wed.

Here is my updated 7 Day forecast:




Long Term Outlook: (July 19th - 27th)

Again, more of the same can be expected. Very little rainfall is being forecast by the models. In fact, look at the following images that I am posting below. As I talked about in my last blog entry, the storm track looks to remain well off to our North. Both the 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS are in agreement.

12Z Euro valid at 168 Hours (Wed. July 18th)





12Z GFS valid at 240 Hours (Sat. July 21st)




The final image that I would like to show you is another 12Z GFS model image valid at 348 Hours (Wed. July 25th 8pm)



Now, wouldn't it be nice if this cold front actually come thru at this intensity and had that much rainfall with it? Don't count on this occurring folks, as you know, but what the heck, our weather is very boring right now, so I had to post something interesting.

In regards to the Drought, I still think that it'll get worse before it gets better. Even though many areas in the Tri-state have seen some improvement, there is much more rainfall that is needed before we are totally out of it. Northern KY continues to feel the brunt of the drought. Remember, with the Tues/Wed. event, all of the action fell to the North of the OH River. The drought conditions aren't as bad there compared to here in Northern KY, where we saw virtually no rain. There is a good chance that Northern KY may not see much rain, if any, in the next couple of weeks! At the present time, CVG is still almost 7" below normal for the year in rainfall and that deficit will only get much worse with this weather pattern that we are stuck in.

Storms Likely on Wed then Dry Once Again

07/08/07 8pm

The models have been in disarray as of late, but now the GFS and the NAM seem to be in good agreement with our next weather system scheduled in here by midweek. Before we get to that, we have one more hot day to go tomorrow. The GFS has 95 for the high, but it over did the heat for today and had 94 as its forecast high for today, but CVG only made it to 90 today. We will be starting out cooler in the morning as well, so I knocked a couple degrees off of tomorrow's forecast high.

The models bring in some instability for Tues. afternoon so chance POPS have been inserted into the 7 Day for Tues. afternoon. These will be hit or miss as far as the coverage is concerned. The models have sped up the cold front to Wed. now, so I went with likely POPS there.

The 12Z NAM is lower on precip. amounts then the 12Z GFS. Below, you will see the 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS runs valid at 78 hours. (Wed. at 2pm) I sided with the GFS for this forecast package.

12Z NAM



12Z GFS



After the front moves thru, there could be a lingering shower very early Thurs. morning. Any activity will be long gone before the morning commute so I left in slight chance POPS for early Thurs. morning. Fri thru Sun all appear to remain dry at this point as we will be under a NW Flow aloft with lower temps. and humidity values.

This next image is of the 12Z Euro model run valid at 168 hours. (Sun 7/15 at 8am) You can clearly see the big trough in place over the region.



Here is my updated 7 Day Forecast for your viewing pleasure.




Long Term Outlook (July 16th - 24th)

Our next decent chance of rain does not come into play until we get to the 17-18th time frame. A disturbance is forecast to drop down from the Great Lakes region. The majority of the energy with this system appears to stay to our North and NE, so the rain chances here do not look all that impressive at this time. This model shows New England getting nailed by this system, although being this far out in time, I wouldn't even trust it. But I do agree with the model trends though of this system not bringing us very much rain the way it looks right now.

Here is the 12Z GFS model image valid at 228 hours. (Tues 7/17 at 8pm)



Beyond that system, there is really not too much to talk about. The Storm Track remains running from the Northern Plains thru the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes then into New England. The jet stream is forecast to pretty much remain in a zonal flow. The final model image that I have to show you is from the 12Z GFS run. The image is valid at 240 hours. (Wed. July 18th at 8am)



In regards to our drought, I am not going to post the latest Drought Monitor map that came out last Thurs. because it is similar in nature to the one that I posted in a previous blog entry. The recent rainfall that we have received is only stopping the drought from getting worse. It is not improving it in regards to erasing it. Also, due to the hot dry air we have seen yesterday, today, and tomorrow, that will erase a lot of the ground moisture that we have accumulated recently. The drought has also expanded with D0 areas half way up the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. I am forecasting the drought to probably get worse again before it gets better. We are heading into the driest months of the year now (July, Aug, and Sept), and if the jet stream remains in a zonal flow for a long period of time, then we are in a world of trouble. CVG is still running at almost 7" below normal in the rainfall dept. since March 1st.

Rain Chances Continue for Tomorrow then a Hot Weekend

7/4/07 8:45pm

I'd like to start off this blog entry by wishing everyone a Happy 4th of July!



Mother Nature had her own set of fireworks today. Check out this image of Current US Lightning Strikes. This image was taken as of 8:40pm.



At the Burlington Weather Office we had a few storms roll through during the afternoon hours. CVG had a wind gust earlier of 50mph. Like CVG, we gusted to almost 50 mph, I think around 48. I picked up .38" of rain and saw a ton of lightning as well. The rain came down very heavy for a good 30 mins. The temp. was at 88.3 degrees before the storms moved in, and dropped down to 76.1 as the storms moved out. No hail to report, just vivid lightning, very heavy rain, and gusty winds. No damage or flooding to report.

Current conditions:

Partly cloudy with a temp. of 74.7 degrees and a Dew point of 71. Winds are light around 5 mph now out of the WSW.

For tonight, we can expect more scattered areas of showers and storms. No severe wx has been reported today in the Tri-state even though our tornado watch expires at 9pm. I still do not expect any severe wx overnight either.

Below, is a GR3 radar image as of 8:42pm. Notice the very heavy rain located in Central Indy in between Columbus and Greensburg. DBZ is at 62.5, which means probably an inch per hour rainfall rates. Let's hope this holds together and hits CVG and the Weather Office.



For tomorrow, we can expect another chance of showers and storms as the front begins to finally pass through the region. I think our best chances will be morning and again late in the day. I have a 50% POP for tomorrow because I think areas from Cincinnati on South stand to have the best chance.

Here is the 12Z GFS's depiction of the rainfall for tomorrow afternoon. This model image is valid at 30 hours. (Thurs. 2pm)



By Fri, high pressure will build in and give us a dry day with sunny skies by afternoon. The dry weather continues for the weekend with the heat really turning on by Sunday under a strong SW Flow. Sun. will be in the 90s and be the hottest day out of the next 7.

By the beginning of next week, a cold front will be dropping down from the NW. The 12Z GFS brings in a few isolated storms by late in the day on Monday. Tues. night really looks to be our best chance according to the GFS, so my highest POPS are for Tues at the present time.

Here is an image of the 12Z GFS valid at 156 hours. (Tues. 8pm)



In the 7 Day, I have a lingering chance of storms in the forecast on Wed. as the front will stall just along or South of the OH River.

Here is my updated 7 Day Forecast. The forecast is valid from 7/5 - 7/11.



Long Term Outlook (7/12 - 7/20)

At the start of the long term period, the front should finally be exiting the region by Thurs. After that, the 12Z GFS does not show very much in the way of rainfall for the remainder of the Long Term period. Highs will probably be in the upper 80s and lower 90s through the period. So, let's all hope that we can add to our rainfall totals during the next 7 days. If not, the drought may re-intensify. The rainfall we are getting now, will only stop the drought from getting worse. It will not wipe it out though. We keep getting too many hot days in between weather systems. I mentioned in my last blog entry that this pattern of wetness we are in is only a temporary one. After July 10th, we could see another hot and dry period. The models are still showing the same thing this week, that I mentioned previously.

Rain Chances for the 4th of July - Severe WX for the 5th?

7/1/07 6:30pm

I'm back from my vacation now, so 7 day forecast updates and blog updates will now resume. My weather highlight to report to you since I was gone, is that I dumped out 2" of rain in the rain gauge at the Burlington Weather Office. It looks like the Tri-State received some much needed rain as I expected. Also, in Michigan, we had two different severe T-storm warnings for Bay Co. One of the storms I experienced first hand. We did not make it back in quite in time before it hit. I was in the Au Gres River at the boat ramp waiting for my Brother to pull the boat out of the water. As he went to get the truck, the storm came. I experienced 1/2" hail covering the bottom of the boat along with wind gusts to 60mph! The hail hurt too when falling from the sky, but no damage was reported.


As far as our weather is concerned for this week, high pressure should rule for tomorrow and Tues. Mid 80s should be the high for tomorrow with temps. getting close to 90 on Tues.

Our next chance of rain could come on the 4th of July itself. The best chance should be overnight, and most fireworks displays should be fine. The model is showing most of the precip. to be North and NW of Downtown Cincy, so KY residents may remain dry during the evening hours. I am leaving a 30% POP in the 7 Day just in case.

Our greatest threat of rains looks to be on Thurs, July the 5th. Severe WX is even possible here, so I went with "Severe" wording in the 7 Day as well as 50% POPS at this point. I'll continue to monitor this for you. Below, you'll see the 12Z GFS Model run image valid at 90 hours, which is for Thurs. morning at 2am.



High pressure should build back in once again for the remainder of the 7 Day period with moderating temps. back to 90 by Sunday.

Below, you will find my latest 7 Day Forecast. It is valid 7/1/07 thru 7/8/07.



Long Term Outlook (July 9th thru July 17th)

High pressure should be in control for the start of the long range period. Another decent front could possibly affect the region on July 10th and 11th. Here is the 12Z GFS Model run image valid at 228 hours, which is for July 10th at 8pm.



After that front moves thru, high pressure should again build back into the region, with some of the models showing the Western US Ridge (major heat dome), possibly moving back into our region after July 10th. If this comes to pass, then we should see hot and dry weather and an end to our drought relief.

Drought Update:

Here is the latest US Drought Monitor map from 6/26/07.



As you can see by this map, the drought areas did not get any worse in the OH Valley. So, some improvement has been received in a lot of areas. This by no means is an indication that the drought is over. We are just seeing enough moisture so that it does not get any worse. It will not get better though unless we see more rain and less dry spells in between systems. This part of the pattern is what we need to have break. I do not see this occurring at this time. We'll see a front, then 3-5 days of dryness before the next one moves in. D0 areas have also expanded into Southern Michigan as well.